2025
Week 11 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 41–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 63%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 15:00, 18 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 15:00SFC.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (K.Clark).63% → 80%
- 2Q1 14:38ARIJ.Z.Knight right tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (D.Lenoir; M.Mustapha).15% → 24%
- 3Q1 3:03ARIT.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16 G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (C.Robinson; J.Weeks).23% → 30%
- 4Q1 1:00SFC.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left75% → 81%
- 5Q2 13:44SFB.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 90%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Kittle led the 49ers at +8.5 EPA (6 catches for 67). M.Wilson led the Cardinals at +9.7 EPA (15 catches for 185).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy91% | 19/26 | 200 | 3 | 1 | +8.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey71% | 13 | 52% | 81 | 2 | +4.4 |
| B.Robinson29% | 8 | 32% | 24 | -1.9 | |
| M.Jones9% | 3 | 12% | -3 | -3.3 | |
| B.Purdy91% | 1 | 4% | -7 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey71% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 40 | 1 | +3.5 |
| G.Kittle87% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 67 | 2 | +8.5 |
| J.Jennings75% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 54 | +2.7 | |
| K.Juszczyk53% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 26 | +1.5 | |
| D.Robinson49% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 13 | -0.4 | |
| R.Pearsall75% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 0 | -3.0 | |
| B.Robinson29% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Lenoir 1 INT, M.Mustapha 1 INT · Kicking E.Pineiro 3/3 FG (long 48)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 47/57 | 452 | 2 | 2 | +9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight41% | 5 | 36% | 24 | 1 | -0.1 |
| E.Demercado18% | 5 | 36% | 8 | -2.0 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 2 | 14% | -2 | -0.9 | |
| M.Carter42% | 2 | 14% | 6 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Wilson82% | 18 | 32% | 15 | 185 | +9.7 | |
| T.McBride89% | 11 | 20% | 10 | 115 | 1 | +5.9 |
| M.Carter42% | 7 | 13% | 5 | 22 | -1.2 | |
| G.Dortch66% | 6 | 11% | 6 | 66 | 1 | +7.9 |
| B.Knight41% | 4 | 7% | 4 | 21 | -0.2 | |
| E.Demercado18% | 3 | 5% | 2 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| E.Higgins35% | 3 | 5% | 2 | 11 | -13.5 | |
| X.Weaver72% | 3 | 5% | 2 | 15 | -1.4 | |
| A.Baccellia22% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense J.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 1/2 FG (long 26)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
49ers give up 8.1 targets a game to tight ends (23rd), against a league average of 7.3. Cardinals' tight ends produce 12.8 (1st).
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). 49ers allow -0.02 (23rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Cardinals gain 5.2 yards per play (23rd). 49ers give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.
The 49ers lead the series 29–22 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Sep 27, 2026, at Levi's Stadium: the 49ers won 36–30. Brock Purdy started at quarterback for the 49ers and Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals; Kyle Shanahan and Jonathan Gannon coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | ARI 30 at SF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | SF 41 at ARI 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ARI 15 at SF 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | SF 24 at ARI 47 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | ARI 24 at SF 23 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Away | 7–2 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.