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DOWN X DOWN › matchups › Week 8 in review

Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET

2026

2026 season · Oct 29 to Nov 2 · 14 games · byes: HOU, NO, NYG, SF

Week 8 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them.

13 of 14 final

The short version · so far

UpsetThe Cardinals beat the Cowboys 33–30 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
ComebackThe Cardinals were down to 2% against the Cowboys and won 33–30.
WildestRaiders at Jets: the lead changed hands 5 times; the Raiders won 38–33, and the biggest swing was 21 points at Q4 6:11.
Best offenseThe Jets: +0.25 EPA a play against the Raiders, +0.24 against their usual.
Best defenseThe Buccaneers held the Falcons to −0.52 EPA a play, −0.41 against what they usually allow.
PlayerKirk Cousins (LV QB): +18.4 EPA, 19/26, 247 yds, 3 TD · 5-3 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 8

Games final13 of 14

Overtime2

Comebacks4

Upsets2

Points602

Biggest swing46 pts

Panthers19

Packers27

Biggest swing 12 pts · Q2 9:19

Ravens10

Bills36

Biggest swing 14 pts · Q2 1:21

Led all the way

Titans36

Bengals43

Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 3:50

Comeback from 21%Overtime

Cardinals33

Cowboys30

Biggest swing 46 pts · Q4 0:10

Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 2%Overtime

Vikings15

Lions19

Biggest swing 16 pts · Q4 10:16

Colts7

Jaguars42

Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 12:47

Led all the way

Raiders38

Jets33

Biggest swing 21 pts · Q4 6:11

Upset · 46% at kickoffComeback from 14%

Browns6

Steelers27

Biggest swing 10 pts · Q1 10:41

Led all the way

Falcons0

Buccaneers16

Biggest swing 13 pts · Q1 7:35

Chargers9

Rams24

Biggest swing 17 pts · Q1 7:22

Chiefs24

Broncos28

Biggest swing 40 pts · Q4 0:04

Comeback from 7%

Patriots24

Dolphins19

Biggest swing 14 pts · Q3 9:30

Eagles10

Commanders27

Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 5:34

Bears

Seahawks

Monday · 8:15 PM ETSEA -3

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped

1Cardinals · Q4 0:10 · ARI at DALG.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4619% → 65%
2Broncos · Q4 0:04 · KC at DENP.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (M.Roach).+4160% → 100%
3Cowboys · Q4 0:06 · ARI at DALC.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left+3336% → 69%
4Broncos · Q4 2:31 · KC at DENB.Nix pass short right to J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (N.Williams; N.Bolton).+2742% → 69%
5Chiefs · Q4 1:32 · KC at DENP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DEN 18 for 32 yards (D.Key).+2628% → 54%
6Titans · Q4 3:50 · TEN at CINC.Ward pass short right to W.Robinson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2546% → 71%
7Bengals · Q4 0:32 · TEN at CINC.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).+2441% → 65%
8Chiefs · Q2 7:54 · KC at DENP.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian].+2347% → 70%
9Jets · Q4 6:11 · LV at NYJG.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).+2133% → 54%
10Bengals · Q4 8:02 · TEN at CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase to TEN 25 for 23 yards (T.Adams) [J.Martin].+1843% → 61%

The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap

1Chiefs · Q2 7:54 · vs DEN · Emmett JohnsonP.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian].+7.0EPA
2Cardinals · Q3 1:10 · vs DAL · Tyler AllgeierT.Allgeier up the middle for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.3EPA
3Steelers · Q1 4:17 · vs CLE · Jaylen WarrenJ.Warren up the middle to CLE 25 for 51 yards.+5.1EPA
4Panthers · Q4 5:45 · vs GB · Jalen CokerB.Young pass short middle to J.Coker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
5Bengals · Q2 13:27 · vs TEN · Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Burrow pass deep middle to J.Chase for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
6Falcons · Q4 4:35 · vs TB · Jahan DotsonM.Penix pass deep left to J.Dotson to TB 22 for 76 yards.+4.6EPA
7Packers · Q2 1:51 · vs CAR · Matthew GoldenJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
8Patriots · Q4 12:50 · vs MIA · DeMario DouglasD.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
9Dolphins · Q4 2:10 · vs NE · Kevin Coleman Jr.M.Willis pass deep left to K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
10Browns · Q4 14:22 · vs PIT · Harold Fannin Jr.D.Watson pass deep right to H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 2 for 37 yards.+4.2EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season

Jetsvs LV · L 33–38+0.25+0.24 vs usual

Raidersat NYJ · W 38–33+0.21+0.22 vs usual

Jaguarsvs IND · W 42–7+0.20+0.04 vs usual

Chiefsat DEN · L 24–28+0.16+0.05 vs usual

Titansat CIN · L 36–43+0.16+0.29 vs usual

Bengalsvs TEN · W 43–36+0.15+0.04 vs usual

Steelersvs CLE · W 27–6+0.13+0.18 vs usual

Patriotsat MIA · W 24–19+0.12+0.06 vs usual

Broncosvs KC · W 28–24+0.11+0.15 vs usual

Cardinalsat DAL · W 33–30+0.05+0.09 vs usual

Packersvs CAR · W 27–19+0.05+0.06 vs usual

Billsvs BAL · W 36–10+0.03−0.18 vs usual

Commandersvs PHI · W 27–10+0.02+0.04 vs usual

Lionsvs MIN · W 19–15−0.05−0.19 vs usual

Cowboysvs ARI · L 30–33−0.05−0.17 vs usual

Dolphinsvs NE · L 19–24−0.06−0.02 vs usual

Ramsvs LAC · W 24–9−0.07−0.13 vs usual

Vikingsat DET · L 15–19−0.09+0.00 vs usual

Panthersat GB · L 19–27−0.15−0.21 vs usual

Buccaneersvs ATL · W 16–0−0.17−0.08 vs usual

Eaglesat WAS · L 10–27−0.19−0.07 vs usual

Brownsat PIT · L 6–27−0.28−0.23 vs usual

Chargersat LA · L 9–24−0.45−0.23 vs usual

Coltsat JAX · L 7–42−0.49−0.42 vs usual

Ravensat BUF · L 10–36−0.50−0.58 vs usual

Falconsat TB · L 0–16−0.52−0.48 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.