2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 7 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 42–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 76%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 12:47, 8 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:47INDR.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 2, downed by IND-A.Dulin.16% → 23%
- 2Q1 10:33JAXW.T.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Strange pushed ob at IND 32 for 46 yards (A.Haulcy).82% → 88%
- 3Q2 9:11JAXJ.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.87% → 92%
- 4Q1 12:02JAXP.Washington right end to JAX 17 for 10 yards (C.Allen; J.Tuimoloau).76% → 80%
- 5Q2 9:53INDD.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to JAX 41 for 14 yards (M.Brown) [K.Merriweather].10% → 13%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Downs led the Colts at +3.3 EPA (4 catches for 23). B.Tuten led the Jaguars at +8.6 EPA (16 carries for 104).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones79% | 19/28 | 144 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -16.7 |
| A.Richardson21% | 2/2 | 8 | 1 | -4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor62% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -6.8 | |
| D.Giddens13% | 6 | 23% | 43 | +0.2 | |
| S.McGowan25% | 5 | 19% | 29 | +2.2 | |
| D.Jones79% | 4 | 15% | 7 | -1.9 | |
| A.Richardson21% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.3 | |
| A.Dulin31% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren72% | 10 | 33% | 4 | 18 | -19.7 | |
| K.Allen52% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 67 | +2.9 | |
| J.Taylor62% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 24 | -2.6 | |
| J.Downs75% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 23 | 1 | +3.3 |
| L.Treadwell70% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 18 | +2.2 | |
| D.Burks31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense L.Latu 1 sack, J.Tuimoloau 1 sack, C.Allen 1 sack
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence81% | 10/14 | 210 | 3 | 3 | +6.1 | |
| Q.Ewers19% | 1/3 | 8 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten50% | 16 | 48% | 104 | 1 | +4.0 |
| A.Abdullah17% | 6 | 18% | 13 | -2.8 | |
| C.Jr.22% | 6 | 18% | 41 | 1 | +2.0 |
| T.Lawrence81% | 3 | 9% | 10 | +1.4 | |
| P.Washington67% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.1 | |
| T.Hunter11% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers54% | 3 | 18% | 2 | 24 | +1.2 | |
| P.Washington67% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 16 | +1.4 | |
| B.Strange52% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 55 | +3.3 | |
| B.Jr.52% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +2.8 |
| B.Tuten50% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 55 | 1 | +4.5 |
| C.Jr.22% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 17 | +1.0 | |
| L.Jr.11% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| T.Hunter11% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| T.Koziol35% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| J.Cameron52% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| N.Boerkircher48% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 31 | 1 | +3.2 |
Defense R.III 1 INT, B.Combs 1 INT, F.Oluokun 1 sack, T.Walker 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Jaguars give up 196 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 147. Colts' wide receivers produce 129 (24th).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.87 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Jaguars give up 32 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 55. Colts' tight ends produce 38 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Colts gain 4.5 yards per play (31st). Jaguars give up 5.6 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Colts lead the series 27–23 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Jaguars have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | IND 7 at JAX 42 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | JAX 23 at IND 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | IND 19 at JAX 36 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | JAX 23 at IND 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | IND 34 at JAX 37 |
2026 records
| Colts | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Away | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.1 – 27.8 | 28.0 – 15.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#30 | -0.10#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#21 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#31 | 5.6#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 8%#6 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#30 | -0.06#7 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.19#1 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#15 | 3.4#4 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 37%#9 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#13 | 45%#6 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#24 | 196#31 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#25 | 32#1 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.4#9 | 6.7#10 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 36#23 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.