2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Jaguars, 8 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 42–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 76%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 12:47, 8 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:47INDR.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 2, downed by IND-A.Dulin.16% → 23%
- 2Q1 10:33JAXW.T.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Strange pushed ob at IND 32 for 46 yards (A.Haulcy).82% → 88%
- 3Q2 9:11JAXJ.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.87% → 92%
- 4Q1 12:02JAXP.Washington right end to JAX 17 for 10 yards (C.Allen; J.Tuimoloau).76% → 80%
- 5Q2 9:53INDD.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to JAX 41 for 14 yards (M.Brown) [K.Merriweather].10% → 13%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Downs led the Colts at +3.3 EPA (4 catches for 23). B.Tuten led the Jaguars at +8.6 EPA (16 carries for 104).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones79% | 19/28 | 144 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -16.7 |
| A.Richardson21% | 2/2 | 8 | 1 | -4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor62% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -6.8 | |
| D.Giddens13% | 6 | 23% | 43 | +0.2 | |
| S.McGowan25% | 5 | 19% | 29 | +2.2 | |
| D.Jones79% | 4 | 15% | 7 | -1.9 | |
| A.Richardson21% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.3 | |
| A.Dulin31% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren72% | 10 | 33% | 4 | 18 | -19.7 | |
| K.Allen52% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 67 | +2.9 | |
| J.Taylor62% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 24 | -2.6 | |
| J.Downs75% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 23 | 1 | +3.3 |
| L.Treadwell70% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 18 | +2.2 | |
| D.Burks31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense L.Latu 1 sack, J.Tuimoloau 1 sack, C.Allen 1 sack
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence81% | 10/14 | 210 | 3 | 3 | +6.1 | |
| Q.Ewers19% | 1/3 | 8 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten50% | 16 | 48% | 104 | 1 | +4.0 |
| A.Abdullah17% | 6 | 18% | 13 | -2.8 | |
| C.Jr.22% | 6 | 18% | 41 | 1 | +2.0 |
| T.Lawrence81% | 3 | 9% | 10 | +1.4 | |
| P.Washington67% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.1 | |
| T.Hunter11% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers54% | 3 | 18% | 2 | 24 | +1.2 | |
| P.Washington67% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 16 | +1.4 | |
| B.Strange52% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 55 | +3.3 | |
| B.Jr.52% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +2.8 |
| B.Tuten50% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 55 | 1 | +4.5 |
| C.Jr.22% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 17 | +1.0 | |
| L.Jr.11% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| T.Hunter11% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| T.Koziol35% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| J.Cameron52% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| N.Boerkircher48% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 31 | 1 | +3.2 |
Defense R.III 1 INT, B.Combs 1 INT, F.Oluokun 1 sack, T.Walker 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Jaguars' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.03). Colts allow +0.02 (30th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Colts give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.6. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.7 (23rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jaguars succeed on 48% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 43% (14th).
The Colts lead the series 27–23 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Jaguars have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | IND 7 at JAX 42 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | JAX 23 at IND 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | IND 19 at JAX 36 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | JAX 23 at IND 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | IND 34 at JAX 37 |
2026 records
| Colts | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Away | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.1 – 27.8 | 28.0 – 15.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.16#3 | +0.07#24 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#7 | 43%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 6.1#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#4 | 10%#20 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.28#1 | +0.06#19 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.03#3 | +0.02#30 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#10 | 4.8#29 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 49%#4 | 33%#5 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#7 | 62%#16 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#14 | 130#8 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#11 | 51#13 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.7#23 | 6.8#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#16 | 43#27 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.