2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 16–0; their low point was 48% at Q1 11:28. The game turned for good at Q1 10:43: Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for no gain (R.Nunez-Roches; J.Parrish) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:35, 13 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:35TBM.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London). PENALTY on…62% → 75%
- 2Q1 6:42ATLB.Mayfield to ATL 17 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 18. B.Mayfield to ATL 16 for 2 yards. Lateral to B.Irving to ATL 1 for 15 yards…26% → 35%
- 3Q1 5:44TBM.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 31. A.Anzalone to ATL 19 for 12 yards (Z.Branch).68% → 76%
- 4Q3 13:31TBR.Dixon punts 59 yards to ATL 7, out of bounds.80% → 86%
- 5Q1 10:00TBN.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left56% → 62%
- ★Q1 10:43TBBi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for no gain (R.Nunez-Roches; J.Parrish).turning point50% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Dotson led the Falcons at +1.1 EPA (2 catches for 95). K.Gainwell led the Buccaneers at -1.1 EPA (25 carries for 140).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 8/24 | 125 | 4 | -24.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson81% | 19 | 68% | 76 | -7.4 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 5 | 18% | 11 | +6.1 | |
| K.Herbert19% | 4 | 14% | 12 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London96% | 6 | 26% | 1 | 8 | -10.5 | |
| K.Pitts55% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 6 | -4.9 | |
| J.Dotson72% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 95 | +1.1 | |
| O.Zaccheaus47% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| C.Woerner55% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -4.9 | |
| A.Hooper13% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.Herbert19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| B.Robinson81% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense H.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 0/1 FG
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 0/3 | 0 | 1 | -6.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving50% | 27 | 48% | 170 | 1 | -4.6 |
| K.Gainwell50% | 25 | 45% | 140 | +0.3 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 7% | 14 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.82% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| K.Gainwell50% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| T.III42% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense A.Anzalone 2 INT, Z.McCollum 1 INT, J.Parrish 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (19th). Buccaneers get home on 6% (24th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Falcons gain -0.18 EPA per dropback (29th). Buccaneers allow -0.20 (2nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Falcons gain 5.6 yards per play (13th). Buccaneers give up 5.1 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The Buccaneers lead the series 26–25 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | ATL 0 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at TB 28 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | TB 23 at ATL 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | ATL 31 at TB 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | TB 30 at ATL 36 |
2026 records
| Falcons | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Home | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 23.6 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#29 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#15 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#13 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.18#29 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#9 | -0.15#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#29 | 34%#6 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#14 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#21 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#26 | 56#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#25 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#18 | 33#19 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.