2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 8 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 16–0; their low point was 48% at Q1 11:28. The game turned for good at Q1 10:43: Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for no gain (R.Nunez-Roches; J.Parrish) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:35, 13 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:35ATLM.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London). PENALTY on…62% → 75%
- 2Q1 6:42TBB.Mayfield to ATL 17 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 18. B.Mayfield to ATL 16 for 2 yards. Lateral to B.Irving to ATL 1 for 15 yards…26% → 35%
- 3Q1 5:44ATLM.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 31. A.Anzalone to ATL 19 for 12 yards (Z.Branch).68% → 76%
- 4Q3 13:31TBR.Dixon punts 59 yards to ATL 7, out of bounds.80% → 86%
- 5Q1 10:00ATLN.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left56% → 62%
- ★Q1 10:43ATLBi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for no gain (R.Nunez-Roches; J.Parrish).turning point50% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Dotson led the Falcons at +1.1 EPA (2 catches for 95). K.Gainwell led the Buccaneers at -1.1 EPA (25 carries for 140).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 8/24 | 125 | 4 | -24.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson81% | 19 | 68% | 76 | -7.4 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 5 | 18% | 11 | +6.1 | |
| K.Herbert19% | 4 | 14% | 12 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London96% | 6 | 26% | 1 | 8 | -10.5 | |
| K.Pitts55% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 6 | -4.9 | |
| J.Dotson72% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 95 | +1.1 | |
| O.Zaccheaus47% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| C.Woerner55% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -4.9 | |
| A.Hooper13% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.Herbert19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| B.Robinson81% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense H.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 0/1 FG (53 no good), 0 pts
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 0/3 | 0 | 1 | -6.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving50% | 27 | 48% | 170 | 1 | -4.6 |
| K.Gainwell50% | 25 | 45% | 140 | +0.3 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 7% | 14 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.82% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| K.Gainwell50% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| T.III42% | 1 | 33% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense A.Anzalone 2 INT, Z.McCollum 1 INT, J.Parrish 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG, 1/1 XP, 10 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Falcons allow 4.6 (26th).
Deep left is open
Falcons are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.17 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 7.6 targets a game to tight ends (16th), against a league average of 7.6. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 4.1 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (11th). Falcons give them up at 9% (13th).
The Buccaneers lead the series 26–25 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | ATL 0 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at TB 28 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | TB 23 at ATL 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | ATL 31 at TB 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | TB 30 at ATL 36 |
2026 records
| Falcons | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Home | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 23.6 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | -0.04#11 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#25 | 44%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#13 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | +0.00#15 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.08#15 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 4.6#26 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 42%#18 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 63%#18 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 150#20 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 55#18 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 7.6#16 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 33#17 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.