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Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

2026 season · Oct 8 to Oct 12 · 15 games · byes: CAR, KC

Week 5 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved. Read the Week 5 write-up

15 of 15 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 24–16 as a 24% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Ravens were down to 5% against the Falcons and won 30–23.
  • WildestBills at Rams: the lead changed hands 6 times and it went to overtime; the Bills won 37–34, and the biggest swing was 12 points at Q4 0:08.
  • Best offenseThe Patriots: +0.42 EPA a play against the Raiders, +0.41 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe 49ers held the Seahawks to −0.43 EPA a play, −0.44 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerDrake Maye (NE QB): +30.9 EPA, 26/34, 374 yds, 4 TD · 7-25 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 5
Games final15 of 15
Overtime3
Comebacks6
Upsets5
Points726
Biggest swing45 pts
TBBuccaneers24DALCowboys16
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 1:22
Upset · 24% at kickoffComeback from 12%
PHIEagles17JAXJaguars19
Biggest swing 45 pts · Q4 0:01
Comeback from 20%
CHIBears7GBPackers31
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q3 13:19
Upset · 43% at kickoff
CINBengals31MIADolphins24
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q2 7:03
Led all the way
LVRaiders17NEPatriots45
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 4:33
Led all the way
MINVikings23NOSaints13
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q3 2:49
CLEBrowns12NYJJets17
Biggest swing 34 pts · Q4 4:20
Comeback from 22%
INDColts22PITSteelers34
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 8:57
HOUTexans26TENTitans3
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q2 12:17
Led all the way
NYGGiants27WASCommanders27
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 2:08
OvertimeTie
DENBroncos23LACChargers17
Biggest swing 21 pts · Q4 8:06
Comeback from 20%
DETLions45ARICardinals21
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q2 9:38
SF49ers32SEASeahawks29
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q3 7:24
Upset · 42% at kickoffComeback from 24%
BALRavens30ATLFalcons23
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 0:27
Upset · 37% at kickoffComeback from 5%Overtime
BUFBills37LARams34
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q4 0:08
Upset · 37% at kickoffOvertime

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1JAXJaguars · Q4 0:01 · PHI at JAXC.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD+4555% → 100%
  2. 2JAXJaguars · Q4 3:26 · PHI at JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3737% → 74%
  3. 3JAXJaguars · Q4 0:08 · PHI at JAXJ.Elliott kicks 57 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 8. A.Abdullah to PHI 39 for 53 yards (J.Jones).+3620% → 56%
  4. 4CLEBrowns · Q4 4:20 · CLE at NYJG.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (C.Schwesinger) [C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-A.Huntington at NYJ 48.…+3444% → 78%
  5. 5NYJJets · Q4 4:01 · CLE at NYJ(Punt formation) C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-T.Wallace at CLE 23.+3432% → 66%
  6. 6PHIEagles · Q4 0:12 · PHI at JAXJ.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD+3347% → 80%
  7. 7NOSaints · Q3 2:49 · MIN at NOK.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker…+3214% → 46%
  8. 8BALRavens · Q4 0:27 · BAL at ATLM.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (T.Robinson). FUMBLES (T.Robinson) [T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-M.Penix was…+2529% → 54%
  9. 9TBBuccaneers · Q4 1:22 · TB at DALD.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12. A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.+2474% → 98%
  10. 10CLEBrowns · Q4 6:21 · CLE at NYJD.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2239% → 61%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1PHIEagles · Q2 5:41 · vs JAX · Darius CooperJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.7EPA
  2. 2GBPackers · Q3 13:19 · vs CHI · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.9EPA
  3. 3PITSteelers · Q1 8:57 · vs IND · Jaylen WarrenA.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Stewart].+5.7EPA
  4. 4DETLions · Q2 9:38 · vs ARI · Sam LaPortaJ.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.6EPA
  5. 5TBBuccaneers · Q3 9:36 · vs DAL · Tez JohnsonJ.Daniels pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards.+5.4EPA
  6. 6JAXJaguars · Q4 3:26 · vs PHI · Parker WashingtonT.Lawrence pass deep right to P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.2EPA
  7. 7DETLions · Q3 9:50 · vs ARI · Jameson WilliamsJ.Goff pass deep right to J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-W.Nolen was injured during the play.+5.1EPA
  8. 8TBBuccaneers · Q3 14:54 · vs DAL · Bucky IrvingB.Irving left tackle pushed ob at DAL 14 for 72 yards.+4.8EPA
  9. 9CINBengals · Q3 0:47 · vs MIA · Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Burrow pass deep middle to J.Chase for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
  10. 10JAXJaguars · Q1 5:36 · vs PHI · Parker WashingtonT.Lawrence pass short right to P.Washington for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1NEPatriotsvs LV · W 45–17+0.42+0.41 vs usual
2DETLionsat ARI · W 45–21+0.33+0.25 vs usual
3BUFBillsat LA · W 37–34+0.29+0.14 vs usual
4GBPackersvs CHI · W 31–7+0.26+0.29 vs usual
5PITSteelersvs IND · W 34–22+0.24+0.30 vs usual
6LARamsvs BUF · L 34–37+0.23+0.22 vs usual
7TBBuccaneersat DAL · W 24–16+0.16+0.29 vs usual
8CINBengalsat MIA · W 31–24+0.14+0.03 vs usual
9HOUTexansat TEN · W 26–3+0.13+0.12 vs usual
10WASCommandersvs NYG · T 27–27+0.11+0.14 vs usual
11NYGGiantsat WAS · T 27–27+0.07+0.06 vs usual
12JAXJaguarsvs PHI · W 19–17+0.06−0.12 vs usual
13BALRavensat ATL · W 30–23+0.04+0.02 vs usual
14ARICardinalsvs DET · L 21–45+0.02+0.05 vs usual
15INDColtsat PIT · L 22–34+0.00+0.14 vs usual
16LVRaidersat NE · L 17–45−0.02−0.04 vs usual
17ATLFalconsvs BAL · L 23–30−0.02+0.08 vs usual
18MIADolphinsvs CIN · L 24–31−0.03+0.02 vs usual
19DALCowboysvs TB · L 16–24−0.05−0.16 vs usual
20MINVikingsat NO · W 23–13−0.10−0.01 vs usual
21SF49ersat SEA · W 32–29−0.12−0.34 vs usual
22NYJJetsvs CLE · W 17–12−0.18−0.26 vs usual
23PHIEaglesat JAX · L 17–19−0.20−0.09 vs usual
24DENBroncosat LAC · W 23–17−0.27−0.29 vs usual
25CLEBrownsat NYJ · L 12–17−0.30−0.25 vs usual
26CHIBearsat GB · L 7–31−0.34−0.45 vs usual
27NOSaintsvs MIN · L 13–23−0.35−0.35 vs usual
28TENTitansvs HOU · L 3–26−0.39−0.34 vs usual
29LACChargersvs DEN · L 17–23−0.40−0.17 vs usual
30SEASeahawksvs SF · L 29–32−0.43−0.45 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 110Drake MayeNE vs LV · 26/34, 374 yds, 4 TD · 7-25 rush+30.9
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs LA · 12/19, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10-121 rush+21.1
  3. 316Jared GoffDET vs ARI · 19/30, 271 yds, 3 TD+18.7
  4. 49Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · 40/54, 383 yds, 3 TD+18.5
  5. 510Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · 25/31, 367 yds, 2 TD+17.2
  6. 619Jameis WinstonNYG vs WAS · 33/54, 326 yds, 3 TD · 5-27 rush+14.7
  7. 79Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · 23/32, 190 yds, 4 TD · 4-10 rush+13.7
  8. 816Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · 24/39, 331 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3-25 rush+11.2
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 130Jaylen WarrenPIT vs IND · 15 car, 101 yds, 1 TD · 6-87 rec+8.2
  2. 27Bucky IrvingTB vs DAL · 21 car, 165 yds, 1 TD · 2-10 rec+7.6
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs ARI · 25 car, 151 yds, 2 TD · 5-56 rec+6.1
  4. 434Samaje PerineCIN vs MIA · 14 car, 68 yds · 2-10 rec+5.2
  5. 54D'Andre SwiftCHI vs GB · 9 car, 43 yds, 1 TD · 4-30 rec+4.8
  6. 626Ty JohnsonBUF vs LA · 0 car, 0 yds · 4-72 rec+4.7
  7. 723Christian McCaffreySF vs SEA · 11 car, 68 yds, 1 TD · 3-15 rec+4.3
  8. 824Blake CorumLA vs BUF · 5 car, 19 yds, 1 TD · 3-53 rec+3.6
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 110Drake MayeNE vs LV · QB39.5
  2. 20Jahmyr GibbsDET vs ARI · RB32.7
  3. 35Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · QB32.3
  4. 430Jaylen WarrenPIT vs IND · RB30.8
  5. 517Josh AllenBUF vs LA · QB30.5
  6. 67Bucky IrvingTB vs DAL · RB29.5
  7. 716Jared GoffDET vs ARI · QB28.9
  8. 89Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · QB27.3
  9. 99Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR26.3
  10. 1019Jameis WinstonNYG vs WAS · QB25.7
  11. 1110Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · QB25.3
  12. 129Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · QB24.6
  13. 1311Parker WashingtonJAX vs PHI · WR24.4
  14. 147Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · QB24.3
  15. 155Tyler HuntleyBAL vs ATL · QB24.0
  16. 168Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · QB22.0
  1. 110Drake MayeNE vs LV · QB39.5
  2. 20Jahmyr GibbsDET vs ARI · RB35.2
  3. 330Jaylen WarrenPIT vs IND · RB33.8
  4. 45Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · QB32.3
  5. 517Josh AllenBUF vs LA · QB30.5
  6. 67Bucky IrvingTB vs DAL · RB30.5
  7. 79Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR29.3
  8. 812Puka NacuaLA vs BUF · WR29.2
  9. 916Jared GoffDET vs ARI · QB28.9
  10. 1011Parker WashingtonJAX vs PHI · WR27.4
  11. 119Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · QB27.3
  12. 129Isaiah LikelyNYG vs WAS · TE26.9
  13. 1319Jameis WinstonNYG vs WAS · QB25.7
  14. 1410Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · QB25.3
  15. 157Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · QB24.8
  16. 169Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · QB24.6
  1. 110Drake MayeNE vs LV · QB39.5
  2. 20Jahmyr GibbsDET vs ARI · RB37.7
  3. 312Puka NacuaLA vs BUF · WR37.7
  4. 430Jaylen WarrenPIT vs IND · RB36.8
  5. 59Isaiah LikelyNYG vs WAS · TE32.4
  6. 69Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · WR32.3
  7. 75Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · QB32.3
  8. 87Bucky IrvingTB vs DAL · RB31.5
  9. 917Josh AllenBUF vs LA · QB30.5
  10. 1011Parker WashingtonJAX vs PHI · WR30.4
  11. 111Malik NabersNYG vs WAS · WR29.1
  12. 1216Jared GoffDET vs ARI · QB28.9
  13. 133George PickensDAL vs TB · WR28.0
  14. 149Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · QB27.3
  15. 155Mike EvansSF vs SEA · WR26.3
  16. 1619Jameis WinstonNYG vs WAS · QB25.7
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 13DeMario DouglasNE vs LV · 4/5, 65 yds, 2 TD+10.5
  2. 25Mike EvansSF vs SEA · 7/10, 113 yds, 1 TD+10.4
  3. 39Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · 6/8, 143 yds, 2 TD+10.3
  4. 411Parker WashingtonJAX vs PHI · 6/9, 124 yds, 2 TD+10.0
  5. 50Matthew GoldenGB vs CHI · 6/7, 123 yds+8.6
  6. 61Jameson WilliamsDET vs ARI · 2/4, 47 yds, 2 TD+8.1
  7. 75Drake LondonATL vs BAL · 7/11, 118 yds+7.5
  8. 818Kyle WilliamsNE vs LV · 3/3, 91 yds, 1 TD+7.4
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 187Sam LaPortaDET vs ARI · 5/5, 88 yds, 1 TD+12.9
  2. 29Isaiah LikelyNYG vs WAS · 11/13, 94 yds, 2 TD+10.4
  3. 389Tyler HigbeeLA vs BUF · 5/6, 83 yds+8.0
  4. 485Trey McBrideARI vs DET · 9/10, 66 yds, 1 TD+7.4
  5. 585Hunter HenryNE vs LV · 3/4, 44 yds, 1 TD+6.5
  6. 68Kyle PittsATL vs BAL · 5/6, 42 yds, 1 TD+5.7
  7. 785Brenton StrangeJAX vs PHI · 7/8, 68 yds+4.9
  8. 884Tyler WarrenIND vs PIT · 7/9, 83 yds+4.5

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 5 · against his own season393 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 5: Isaiah Bond (Browns) took 72% of the snaps, up 62 points on his season; T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) fell to 3% from 76.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
0Isaiah BondCLE · WR+62 pts10% → 72%86Gavin BartholomewMIN · TE+55 pts7% → 62%17Germie BernardPIT · WR+55 pts38% → 92%13Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC · WR+55 pts21% → 75%86Jalen BrooksARI · WR+48 pts5% → 53%
▼ Fallers
87T.J. HockensonMIN · TE−73 pts76% → 3%1KC ConcepcionCLE · WR−62 pts78% → 16%4Konata MumpfieldLA · WR−42 pts49% → 7%32David MontgomeryHOU · RB−41 pts55% → 14%17Chris MooreBAL · WR−39 pts48% → 9%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
17Germie BernardPIT · WR+23 pts8% → 30%0Isaiah BondCLE · WR+20 pts2% → 22%86Gavin BartholomewMIN · TE+20 pts1% → 21%2Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB+18 pts7% → 26%23Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB+17 pts1% → 18%
▼ Fallers
1KC ConcepcionCLE · WR−21 pts24% → 3%87T.J. HockensonMIN · TE−21 pts25% → 4%88CeeDee LambDAL · WR−19 pts31% → 12%12RJ HarveyDEN · RB−17 pts21% → 5%14Carnell TateTEN · WR−16 pts30% → 14%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
10Drake MayeNE · QB+31.7 EPA-2.3 → +29.519Jameis WinstonNYG · QB+16.8 EPA-6.2 → +10.610Jordan LoveGB · QB+15.7 EPA+1.2 → +16.99Matthew StaffordLA · QB+15.1 EPA+3.4 → +18.51Kyler MurrayMIN · QB+14.6 EPA-5.7 → +8.9
▼ Fallers
13Brock PurdySF · QB−16.9 EPA+14.9 → -2.04Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB−16.6 EPA+4.1 → -12.57Geno SmithNYJ · QB−16.3 EPA+5.0 → -11.34Dak PrescottDAL · QB−15.4 EPA+12.2 → -3.36Tyler ShoughNO · QB−13.7 EPA+1.7 → -11.9
New faces47Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE · debut, 41% of the snaps86Jalen BrooksARI · WR · first start-level week, 53% of the snaps87Nick VannettBAL · TE · debut, 25% of the snaps13Skyler BellBUF · WR · debut, 61% of the snaps0Isaiah BondCLE · WR · first start-level week, 72% of the snaps22Pierre StrongGB · RB · debut, 41% of the snaps82Theo Wease Jr.LAC · WR · debut, 64% of the snaps85Ben YurosekMIN · TE · debut, 55% of the snaps86Gavin BartholomewMIN · TE · first start-level week, 62% of the snaps17Tim PatrickNYJ · WR · debut, 93% of the snaps39Dameon PiercePHI · RB · debut, 77% of the snaps87Brandon SmithPIT · WR · debut, 27% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.