DOWN X DOWN › week 5 › Bills at Rams
Updated Nov 3, 5:29 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 5 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

BUFvsLA

Bills offensevsRams defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

BUF offenseLA offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · OT · BUF 37 · LA 34

The Bills won 37–34; their low point in regulation was 32% at Q3 8:24. The Rams had been 63% favorites at kickoff. Tied 34–34 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:00: T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:08, 12 points for the Rams.

At kickoffLA 63%LA by 3.5 on the line
BUF low point32%Q3 8:24 · down 14⁠–⁠13
Swings past 50%17times the favorite changed
Biggest swing12 ptsLA · Q4 0:08
LA wins50%BUF wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:08LAK.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.30% → 42%+12
  2. 2Q3 3:49BUFJ.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4.48% → 60%+12
  3. 3Q4 2:00BUFJ.Allen scrambles right guard to LA 5 for 21 yards (J.Wallace; K.Curl).68% → 80%+12
  4. 4Q2 5:16BUFJ.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 61%+11
  5. 5Q3 10:18LAM.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to T.Higbee [M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BUF 18…48% → 59%+11

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

J.Allen led the Bills at +21.1 EPA (12 of 19 for 210). M.Stafford led the Rams at +18.5 EPA (40 of 54 for 383).

BUF Bills

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
J.Allen100%12/19210111+8.4
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
J.Cook62%2568%1112-3.2
J.Allen100%1027%1211+12.7
R.Davis16%25%2-1.0
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
T.Johnson22%422%472+4.7
D.Knox70%317%16-1.7
K.Shakir69%317%380+5.9
D.Kincaid70%211%17+0.2
K.Coleman70%211%171+0.7
S.Bell61%211%00-1.9
J.Cook62%16%17+0.5
R.Davis16%16%131+2.5

Defense D.Carter 1 sack · Kicking T.Bass 3/3 FG (long 49)

LA Rams

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
M.Stafford100%40/5438331+18.5
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
K.Williams73%1670%491-0.6
B.Corum27%522%191+0.6
P.Nacua85%29%9-0.2
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
P.Nacua85%2444%171381+4.5
K.Williams73%815%627-1.4
D.Adams73%713%5512+3.7
T.Higbee67%611%583+8.0
B.Corum27%47%353+3.0
C.Parkinson65%24%13-0.9
D.Allen50%24%224+2.4
T.Atwell39%12%14+1.2

Defense J.Watson 1 INT, J.Stewart 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 0/2 FG

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Backs catch passes

Rams give up 43 yards a game to running backs (28th), against a league average of 32. Bills' running backs produce 46 (7th).

02
Opportunity

Short middle is open

Rams are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.24 EPA per attempt. Bills send 16% of their throws there.

03
Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Rams give up 112 yards a game to wide receivers (2nd), against a league average of 147. Bills' wide receivers produce 145 (17th).

04
Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Bills average +0.18 EPA per play (1st). Rams allow -0.11 (3rd). League average is +0.00.

The series · Bills and Rams since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The Bills lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.

Bills at home2–1the Bills' record
In Los Angeles4–1the Bills' record
Most pointsBills 42 · Rams 442024 · 2024
Biggest winBills by 21 · Rams by 32022 · 2012

The last 5

2026 · Wk 5 · OTBUF 37 at LA 34
2024 · Wk 14BUF 42 at LA 44
2022 · Wk 1BUF 31 at LA 10
2020 · Wk 3LA 32 at BUF 35
2016 · Wk 5BUF 30 at LA 19

2026 records

BillsRams
Overall6–14–4
Division0–10–2
Conference4–12–2
Other conference2–02–2
Home3–12–3
Away3–02–1
Last 5WLWWWWLLWW
StreakWon 3Won 2
Points a game33.3 – 25.924.3 – 21.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · BUF offense against LA defense
StatBUF BUF offFavors BUF · Favors LALA LA def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.18#1
-0.11#3+0.00
Success rate
49%#4
40%#644%
Yards per play
6.5#2
5.0#55.4
Explosive play rate
15%#1
8%#79%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.23#4
-0.12#3+0.03
Sack rate
6%#13
4%#277%
Running
Run EPA per carry
+0.02#6
-0.16#3-0.08
Yards per carry
4.5#7
3.5#64.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
47%#6
33%#541%
Red zone TD rate
72%#3
44%#561%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
145#17
112#2147
TE yards per game
64#9
46#955
TE targets per game
7.1#19
8.4#257.6
RB receiving yards per game
46#7
43#2832
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Bills: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.138% of throws
+1.408% of throws
+1.215% of throws
Short
+0.4627% of throws
-0.1216% of throws
+0.2236% of throws

Rams: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.269 throws
+0.0210 throws
-0.7616 throws
Short
-0.1190 throws
+0.2445 throws
-0.1187 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.