2026
Week 5 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Rams, 7 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 37–34; their low point in regulation was 32% at Q3 8:24. The Rams had been 63% favorites at kickoff. Tied 34–34 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:00: T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:08, 12 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:08LAK.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.30% → 42%
- 2Q3 3:49BUFJ.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4.48% → 60%
- 3Q4 2:00BUFJ.Allen scrambles right guard to LA 5 for 21 yards (J.Wallace; K.Curl).68% → 80%
- 4Q2 5:16BUFJ.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 61%
- 5Q3 10:18LAM.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to T.Higbee [M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BUF 18…48% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Allen led the Bills at +21.1 EPA (12 of 19 for 210). M.Stafford led the Rams at +18.5 EPA (40 of 54 for 383).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 12/19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook62% | 25 | 68% | 111 | 2 | -3.2 |
| J.Allen100% | 10 | 27% | 121 | 1 | +12.7 |
| R.Davis16% | 2 | 5% | 2 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Johnson22% | 4 | 22% | 4 | 72 | +4.7 | |
| D.Knox70% | 3 | 17% | 1 | 6 | -1.7 | |
| K.Shakir69% | 3 | 17% | 3 | 80 | +5.9 | |
| D.Kincaid70% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 | |
| K.Coleman70% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 7 | 1 | +0.7 |
| S.Bell61% | 2 | 11% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Cook62% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| R.Davis16% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 31 | +2.5 |
Defense D.Carter 1 sack · Kicking T.Bass 3/3 FG (long 49)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 40/54 | 383 | 3 | 1 | +18.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams73% | 16 | 70% | 49 | 1 | -0.6 |
| B.Corum27% | 5 | 22% | 19 | 1 | +0.6 |
| P.Nacua85% | 2 | 9% | 9 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua85% | 24 | 44% | 17 | 138 | 1 | +4.5 |
| K.Williams73% | 8 | 15% | 6 | 27 | -1.4 | |
| D.Adams73% | 7 | 13% | 5 | 51 | 2 | +3.7 |
| T.Higbee67% | 6 | 11% | 5 | 83 | +8.0 | |
| B.Corum27% | 4 | 7% | 3 | 53 | +3.0 | |
| C.Parkinson65% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.9 | |
| D.Allen50% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 24 | +2.4 | |
| T.Atwell39% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 4 | +1.2 |
Defense J.Watson 1 INT, J.Stewart 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 0/2 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bills give up 9.1 targets a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 7.6. Rams' tight ends produce 10.1 (4th).
Deep right is open
Bills are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Rams send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Rams average 4.9 yards per carry (4th). Bills allow 3.6 (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (23rd). Bills give them up at 10% (23rd).
The Bills lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 · OT | BUF 37 at LA 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | BUF 42 at LA 44 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | BUF 31 at LA 10 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | LA 32 at BUF 35 |
| 2016 · Wk 5 | BUF 30 at LA 19 |
2026 records
| Bills | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 2–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 2–2 |
| Home | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Away | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WLLWW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 33.3 – 25.9 | 24.3 – 21.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#10 | +0.06#23 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#5 | 46%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#23 | 10%#23 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.07#15 | +0.12#24 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#5 | 5%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.01#7 | -0.08#17 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#4 | 3.6#9 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#5 | 42%#21 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#6 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#10 | 154#24 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 66#6 | 71#29 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.1#4 | 9.1#29 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 43#8 | 44#29 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.