2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Raiders, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 45–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:33, 11 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:33LVC.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (A.Butler). FUMBLES (A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE,…16% → 27%
- 2Q1 8:24LVK.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 38%
- 3Q1 11:30NED.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.70% → 78%
- 4Q1 4:35NED.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (T.Johnson).63% → 69%
- 5Q2 0:28NED.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.88% → 94%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Cousins led the Raiders at +9.2 EPA (19 of 28 for 243). D.Maye led the Patriots at +30.9 EPA (26 of 34 for 374).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins83% | 19/28 | 243 | 1 | 3 | +9.2 | |
| F.Mendoza17% | 6/8 | 48 | +1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty53% | 10 | 56% | 27 | -2.6 | |
| D.Laube38% | 4 | 22% | 9 | 1 | +0.6 |
| T.Tucker75% | 2 | 11% | -6 | -1.5 | |
| M.Jr.8% | 1 | 6% | 5 | +0.4 | |
| F.Mendoza17% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers70% | 10 | 28% | 8 | 110 | 1 | +3.8 |
| A.Jeanty53% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 50 | +1.4 | |
| T.Tucker75% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 41 | +2.0 | |
| C.White62% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 44 | +2.2 | |
| M.Benson27% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 6 | -3.2 | |
| D.Laube38% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 16 | +0.2 | |
| I.Thomas40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.5 | |
| D.Thompkins22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| M.Mayer65% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| M.Jr.8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense M.Koonce 0.5 sacks, J.Laulu 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 1/2 FG (long 46)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 26/34 | 374 | 4 | 1 | +29.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson71% | 13 | 42% | 64 | 1 | +0.5 |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 23% | 25 | 1 | +1.4 |
| C.Kiner20% | 6 | 19% | 52 | -4.7 | |
| T.Henderson16% | 4 | 13% | 22 | +0.4 | |
| E.III76% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.III76% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 57 | +5.8 | |
| D.Douglas49% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 65 | 2 | +10.5 |
| E.Raridon57% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 57 | +2.7 | |
| H.Henry64% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 44 | 1 | +6.6 |
| R.Stevenson71% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 21 | +1.5 | |
| R.Doubs83% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 16 | -0.1 | |
| K.Williams36% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 91 | 1 | +7.4 |
| C.Kiner20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| T.Henderson16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | -0.2 |
Defense E.Ponder 2 sacks, L.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Patriots give up 7.9 targets a game to tight ends (20th), against a league average of 7.6. Raiders' tight ends produce 13.6 (1st).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Raiders average 3.2 yards per carry (30th). Patriots allow 3.8 (11th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Raiders gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 8–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | LV 17 at NE 45 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | LV 20 at NE 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | NE 17 at LV 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | NE 24 at LV 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | LV 20 at NE 36 |
2026 records
| Raiders | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Division | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.6 – 28.8 | 23.0 – 20.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#14 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#14 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.19#6 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#29 | -0.09#13 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.2#30 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#9 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#22 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#32 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 120#1 | 52#14 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.6#1 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#2 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.