2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Patriots, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 45–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:33, 11 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:33LVC.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (A.Butler). FUMBLES (A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE,…16% → 27%
- 2Q1 8:24LVK.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 38%
- 3Q1 11:30NED.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.70% → 78%
- 4Q1 4:35NED.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (T.Johnson).63% → 69%
- 5Q2 0:28NED.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.88% → 94%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Cousins led the Raiders at +9.2 EPA (19 of 28 for 243). D.Maye led the Patriots at +30.9 EPA (26 of 34 for 374).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins83% | 19/28 | 243 | 1 | 3 | +9.2 | |
| F.Mendoza17% | 6/8 | 48 | +1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty53% | 10 | 56% | 27 | -2.6 | |
| D.Laube38% | 4 | 22% | 9 | 1 | +0.6 |
| T.Tucker75% | 2 | 11% | -6 | -1.5 | |
| M.Jr.8% | 1 | 6% | 5 | +0.4 | |
| F.Mendoza17% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers70% | 10 | 28% | 8 | 110 | 1 | +3.8 |
| A.Jeanty53% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 50 | +1.4 | |
| T.Tucker75% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 41 | +2.0 | |
| C.White62% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 44 | +2.2 | |
| M.Benson27% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 6 | -3.2 | |
| D.Laube38% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 16 | +0.2 | |
| I.Thomas40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.5 | |
| D.Thompkins22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| M.Mayer65% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| M.Jr.8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense M.Koonce 0.5 sacks, J.Laulu 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 1/2 FG (long 46)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 26/34 | 374 | 4 | 1 | +29.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson71% | 13 | 42% | 64 | 1 | +0.5 |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 23% | 25 | 1 | +1.4 |
| C.Kiner20% | 6 | 19% | 52 | -4.7 | |
| T.Henderson16% | 4 | 13% | 22 | +0.4 | |
| E.III76% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.III76% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 57 | +5.8 | |
| D.Douglas49% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 65 | 2 | +10.5 |
| E.Raridon57% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 57 | +2.7 | |
| H.Henry64% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 44 | 1 | +6.6 |
| R.Stevenson71% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 21 | +1.5 | |
| R.Doubs83% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 16 | -0.1 | |
| K.Williams36% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 91 | 1 | +7.4 |
| C.Kiner20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| T.Henderson16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | -0.2 |
Defense E.Ponder 2 sacks, L.III 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.15 EPA per dropback (8th). Raiders allow +0.16 (27th).
Deep left is open
Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (16th). Raiders get home on 7% (16th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Patriots average +0.06 EPA per play (8th). Raiders allow +0.08 (28th). League average is +0.00.
The Patriots lead the series 8–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | LV 17 at NE 45 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | LV 20 at NE 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | NE 17 at LV 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | NE 24 at LV 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | LV 20 at NE 36 |
2026 records
| Raiders | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Division | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.6 – 28.8 | 23.0 – 20.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | +0.08#28 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 48%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 6.2#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#8 | 11%#31 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#8 | +0.16#27 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#23 | -0.03#24 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#20 | 5.2#32 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#11 | 44%#25 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 71%#27 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#11 | 163#25 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#10 | 56#18 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.8#22 | 8.6#26 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#12 | 32#16 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.