Ravens offensevsFalcons defense

The Ravens won 30–23 from as low as 5% (Q4 2:17, down 23⁠–⁠15). The Falcons had been 63% favorites at kickoff. Tied 23–23 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:57: T.Loop extra point is GOOD ** Injury Update: BAL-T.Jones has returned to the game. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:27, 25 points for the Ravens.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q4 0:27BALM.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (T.Robinson). FUMBLES (T.Robinson) [T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-M.Penix was…29% → 55%+25
2. 2Q1 8:14ATLT.Huntley pass short middle to M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (D.Deablo, S.Brown). FUMBLES (S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-J.Bates at BAL 36. J.Bates…56% → 71%+15
3. 3Q4 0:40BALTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-M.Hughes has returned to the game.18% → 32%+14
4. 4Q4 0:19ATLT.Tagovailoa pass short left to Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (R.Smith).45% → 58%+13
5. 5Q3 3:47BALC.M.Penix pass short left to C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (Z.Young) [M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and…28% → 40%+12

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.