DOWN X DOWN › matchups › Week 3 in review
Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET
2026
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2026 season · Sep 24 to Sep 28 · 16 games

Week 3 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved. Read the Week 3 write-up

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Commanders beat the Seahawks 33–31 as a 25% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Raiders were down to 8% against the Saints and won 35–27.
  • WildestPanthers at Browns: the lead changed hands 4 times; the Browns won 21–18, and the biggest swing was 22 points at Q4 1:55.
  • Best offenseThe 49ers: +0.49 EPA a play against the Cardinals, +0.36 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Bears held the Eagles to −0.30 EPA a play, −0.32 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerBrock Purdy (SF QB): +23.8 EPA, 15/27, 297 yds, 4 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 3
Games final16 of 16
Overtime0
Comebacks6
Upsets7
Points756
Biggest swing61 pts
ATLFalcons35GBPackers14
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q3 10:02
Upset · 32% at kickoffComeback from 16%
LACChargers16BUFBills24
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q4 11:15
CARPanthers18CLEBrowns21
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 1:55
Upset · 41% at kickoffComeback from 19%
NYJJets24DETLions31
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 4:11
Led all the way
HOUTexans17INDColts19
Biggest swing 27 pts · Q4 0:21
Upset · 43% at kickoff
NEPatriots6JAXJaguars35
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q1 3:58
KCChiefs24MIADolphins10
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 14:55
Led all the way
TENTitans7NYGGiants12
Biggest swing 61 pts · Q4 0:24
CINBengals27PITSteelers30
Biggest swing 48 pts · Q4 0:53
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 24%
SEASeahawks31WASCommanders33
Biggest swing 34 pts · Q4 4:09
Upset · 25% at kickoffComeback from 22%
ARICardinals30SF49ers36
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q1 8:40
Led all the way
MINVikings23TBBuccaneers16
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 4:17
Led all the way
BALRavens34DALCowboys31
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q4 0:01
LVRaiders35NOSaints27
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 8:03
Upset · 39% at kickoffComeback from 8%
LARams26DENBroncos30
Biggest swing 54 pts · Q4 5:01
Comeback from 9%
PHIEagles7CHIBears27
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q2 6:21
Upset · 35% at kickoff

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingsthe team with the ball, and the points of win probability for the team the play helped
  1. 1TENTitans · Q4 0:24 · TEN at NYGC.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10…+61NYG 35% → 96%
  2. 2LARams · Q4 5:01 · LA at DENM.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+54DEN 19% → 73%
  3. 3CINBengals · Q4 0:53 · CIN at PITJ.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49.+48PIT 48% → 96%
  4. 4SEASeahawks · Q4 4:09 · SEA at WASS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS,…+34WAS 56% → 90%
  5. 5LARams · Q4 3:46 · LA at DENM.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+34LA 32% → 66%
  6. 6LARams · Q4 0:02 · LA at DENM.Stafford pass deep right intended for D.Adams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.+28DEN 72% → 100%
  7. 7INDColts · Q4 0:21 · HOU at INDS.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD+27IND 58% → 85%
  8. 8DENBroncos · Q4 3:26 · LA at DENB.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl).+24DEN 28% → 52%
  9. 9PITSteelers · Q4 11:04 · CIN at PITC.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13 K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-B.Echols was injured…+24PIT 24% → 48%
  10. 10NOSaints · Q4 8:03 · LV at NOT.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance INTERCEPTED by H.Masses [M.Koonce] at NO 43. H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (J.Johnson). FUMBLES…+24LV 54% → 78%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1SF49ers · Q1 8:40 · vs ARI · Mike EvansB.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+7.7EPA
  2. 2MINVikings · Q2 4:17 · vs TB · Jordan AddisonK.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea].+5.4EPA
  3. 3ATLFalcons · Q4 14:17 · vs GB · Drake LondonM.Penix pass deep left to D.London pushed ob at GB 16 for 68 yards.+5.2EPA
  4. 4CINBengals · Q4 13:33 · vs PIT · Mike GesickiJ.Burrow pass deep middle to M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.9EPA
  5. 5CINBengals · Q2 0:39 · vs PIT · Tee HigginsJ.Burrow pass deep right to T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Joseph].+4.8EPA
  6. 6NYJJets · Q4 4:11 · vs DET · Garrett WilsonG.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards. Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference,…+4.7EPA
  7. 7SF49ers · Q4 1:36 · vs ARI · George KittleB.Purdy pass deep right to G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  8. 8PITSteelers · Q1 13:17 · vs CIN · Roman WilsonA.Rodgers pass deep left to R.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  9. 9GBPackers · Q1 9:18 · vs ATL · Matthew GoldenJ.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards.+4.5EPA
  10. 10LARams · Q4 3:46 · vs DEN · Konata MumpfieldM.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1SF49ersvs ARI · W 36–30+0.49+0.36 vs usual
2ATLFalconsat GB · W 35–14+0.33+0.50 vs usual
3CINBengalsat PIT · L 27–30+0.28+0.19 vs usual
4JAXJaguarsvs NE · W 35–6+0.23+0.08 vs usual
5PITSteelersvs CIN · W 30–27+0.20+0.26 vs usual
6DETLionsvs NYJ · W 31–24+0.19+0.09 vs usual
7ARICardinalsat SF · L 30–36+0.17+0.22 vs usual
8KCChiefsat MIA · W 24–10+0.14+0.01 vs usual
9BALRavensat DAL · W 34–31+0.13+0.13 vs usual
10LVRaidersat NO · W 35–27+0.11+0.10 vs usual
11DALCowboysvs BAL · L 31–34+0.10+0.02 vs usual
12NYJJetsat DET · L 24–31+0.10+0.06 vs usual
13CHIBearsvs PHI · W 27–7+0.09+0.03 vs usual
14GBPackersvs ATL · L 14–35+0.01+0.01 vs usual
15LARamsat DEN · L 26–30+0.01−0.04 vs usual
16DENBroncosvs LA · W 30–26−0.01+0.02 vs usual
17BUFBillsvs LAC · W 24–16−0.02−0.23 vs usual
18CLEBrownsvs CAR · W 21–18−0.02+0.07 vs usual
19SEASeahawksat WAS · L 31–33−0.05+0.01 vs usual
20NOSaintsvs LV · L 27–35−0.07−0.03 vs usual
21LACChargersat BUF · L 16–24−0.07+0.22 vs usual
22WASCommandersvs SEA · W 33–31−0.08−0.08 vs usual
23HOUTexansat IND · L 17–19−0.09−0.14 vs usual
24INDColtsvs HOU · W 19–17−0.11+0.00 vs usual
25NYGGiantsvs TEN · W 12–7−0.12−0.15 vs usual
26CARPanthersat CLE · L 18–21−0.13−0.19 vs usual
27TENTitansat NYG · L 7–12−0.15−0.07 vs usual
28MIADolphinsvs KC · L 10–24−0.15−0.13 vs usual
29TBBuccaneersvs MIN · L 16–23−0.25−0.18 vs usual
30NEPatriotsat JAX · L 6–35−0.25−0.36 vs usual
31MINVikingsat TB · W 23–16−0.26−0.20 vs usual
32PHIEaglesat CHI · L 7–27−0.30−0.20 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 113Brock PurdySF vs ARI · 15/27, 297 yds, 4 TD+23.8
  2. 29Joe BurrowCIN vs PIT · 28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD+15.1
  3. 38Lamar JacksonBAL vs DAL · 15/20, 186 yds, 2 TD · 6-50 rush+14.3
  4. 44Dak PrescottDAL vs BAL · 25/40, 276 yds, 1 TD · 4-19 rush+12.6
  5. 515Patrick MahomesKC vs MIA · 20/24, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT+12.3
  6. 67Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · 38/52, 280 yds, 2 TD · 4-4 rush+11.7
  7. 77Geno SmithNYJ vs DET · 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD+10.8
  8. 816Trevor LawrenceJAX vs NE · 19/29, 182 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4-25 rush+10.1
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 17Bijan RobinsonATL vs GB · 29 car, 194 yds, 2 TD · 2-19 rec+10.0
  2. 226Ty JohnsonBUF vs LAC · 0 car, 0 yds · 4-50 rec+5.8
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYJ · 20 car, 99 yds, 2 TD · 7-65 rec+5.8
  4. 430Jaylen WarrenPIT vs CIN · 17 car, 127 yds · 3-49 rec+5.5
  5. 54Mike Washington Jr.LV vs NO · 5 car, 54 yds, 1 TD+4.3
  6. 638Rhamondre StevensonNE vs JAX · 7 car, 22 yds · 3-16 rec+3.8
  7. 733Bhayshul TutenJAX vs NE · 15 car, 73 yds, 1 TD · 2-17 rec+3.5
  8. 815Brian RobinsonATL vs GB · 10 car, 50 yds, 1 TD+3.4
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYJ · RB34.4
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs GB · RB33.3
  3. 313Brock PurdySF vs ARI · QB31.3
  4. 414Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.7
  5. 57Geno SmithNYJ vs DET · QB26.0
  6. 67Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB25.6
  7. 711Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs WAS · WR25.4
  8. 811Case KeenumCHI vs PHI · QB24.5
  9. 910Bo NixDEN vs LA · QB24.1
  10. 106Tyler ShoughNO vs LV · QB23.8
  11. 118Aaron RodgersPIT vs CIN · QB22.7
  12. 129Joe BurrowCIN vs PIT · QB22.6
  13. 138Kirk CousinsLV vs NO · QB22.2
  14. 1422Derrick HenryBAL vs DAL · RB20.9
  15. 159Matthew StaffordLA vs DEN · QB20.9
  16. 168Lamar JacksonBAL vs DAL · QB20.4
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYJ · RB37.9
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs GB · RB34.3
  3. 313Brock PurdySF vs ARI · QB31.3
  4. 411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs WAS · WR30.4
  5. 514Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.7
  6. 67Geno SmithNYJ vs DET · QB26.0
  7. 77Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB25.6
  8. 811Case KeenumCHI vs PHI · QB24.5
  9. 910Bo NixDEN vs LA · QB24.1
  10. 105Drake LondonATL vs GB · WR23.9
  11. 116Tyler ShoughNO vs LV · QB23.8
  12. 1285George KittleSF vs ARI · TE23.2
  13. 138Aaron RodgersPIT vs CIN · QB22.7
  14. 149Joe BurrowCIN vs PIT · QB22.6
  15. 1589Brock BowersLV vs NO · TE22.6
  16. 168Kirk CousinsLV vs NO · QB22.2
  1. 10Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NYJ · RB41.4
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs WAS · WR35.4
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs GB · RB35.3
  4. 413Brock PurdySF vs ARI · QB31.3
  5. 55Drake LondonATL vs GB · WR28.4
  6. 614Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.7
  7. 789Brock BowersLV vs NO · TE27.6
  8. 85Garrett WilsonNYJ vs DET · WR26.7
  9. 985George KittleSF vs ARI · TE26.2
  10. 107Geno SmithNYJ vs DET · QB26.0
  11. 1114Michael WilsonARI vs SF · WR25.9
  12. 127Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB25.6
  13. 131Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · WR24.8
  14. 1411Case KeenumCHI vs PHI · QB24.5
  15. 1544Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs CAR · TE24.1
  16. 1610Bo NixDEN vs LA · QB24.1
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 15Drake LondonATL vs GB · 9/10, 194 yds+12.3
  2. 288CeeDee LambDAL vs BAL · 7/8, 112 yds+11.1
  3. 35Tee HigginsCIN vs PIT · 6/7, 90 yds, 1 TD+9.9
  4. 45Mike EvansSF vs ARI · 3/6, 34 yds, 1 TD+9.5
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · 9/12, 98 yds, 1 TD+9.3
  6. 63Jakobi MeyersJAX vs NE · 7/8, 64 yds, 1 TD+8.3
  7. 712Chris OlaveNO vs LV · 9/13, 107 yds+7.7
  8. 84Konata MumpfieldLA vs DEN · 4/8, 93 yds, 1 TD+7.1
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185George KittleSF vs ARI · 6/7, 82 yds, 2 TD+10.2
  2. 289Brock BowersLV vs NO · 10/13, 116 yds, 1 TD+8.6
  3. 344Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs CAR · 7/9, 51 yds, 2 TD+7.2
  4. 416Kenyon SadiqNYJ vs DET · 7/8, 105 yds, 1 TD+6.5
  5. 587Travis KelceKC vs MIA · 2/2, 59 yds, 1 TD+6.5
  6. 685Trey McBrideARI vs SF · 9/11, 75 yds+5.3
  7. 788Mike GesickiCIN vs PIT · 3/3, 37 yds, 1 TD+5.1
  8. 887Noah FantNO vs LV · 4/4, 33 yds, 2 TD+4.7

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 3 · against his own season423 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 3: Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins) took 84% of the snaps, up 71 points on his season; Justin Jefferson (Vikings) fell to 12% from 96.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
0Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB+71 pts13% → 84%87Brycen TremayneCAR · WR+64 pts18% → 81%13Tai FeltonMIN · WR+52 pts3% → 54%89Tyler HigbeeLA · TE+48 pts23% → 71%87Payne DurhamTB · TE+46 pts9% → 55%
▼ Fallers
18Justin JeffersonMIN · WR−84 pts96% → 12%28De'Von AchaneMIA · RB−76 pts81% → 5%18Jalen CokerCAR · WR−44 pts80% → 36%5Mike EvansSF · WR−32 pts65% → 33%84Colby ParkinsonLA · TE−31 pts74% → 43%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
4Rashee RiceKC · WR+28 pts11% → 39%5Drake LondonATL · WR+25 pts19% → 44%2DJ MooreBUF · WR+24 pts14% → 39%3Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR+23 pts7% → 30%33Aaron JonesMIN · RB+22 pts2% → 24%
▼ Fallers
18Justin JeffersonMIN · WR−27 pts35% → 8%7Bijan RobinsonATL · RB−24 pts33% → 9%19Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WR−20 pts20% → 0%28De'Von AchaneMIA · RB−19 pts22% → 3%18Jalen CokerCAR · WR−18 pts27% → 10%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
8Aaron RodgersPIT · QB+23.1 EPA-14.6 → +8.59Joe BurrowCIN · QB+16.2 EPA-1.6 → +14.77Bijan RobinsonATL · RB+15.3 EPA-5.3 → +10.05Drake LondonATL · WR+10.2 EPA+2.0 → +12.385George KittleSF · TE+10.1 EPA+0.1 → +10.2
▼ Fallers
9Bryce YoungCAR · QB−19.2 EPA+13.3 → -5.922Derrick HenryBAL · RB−17.2 EPA+5.8 → -11.41Jalen HurtsPHI · QB−16.0 EPA+5.0 → -11.017Josh AllenBUF · QB−15.2 EPA+14.8 → -0.413Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR−11.8 EPA+7.4 → -4.4
New faces9Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB · debut, 100% of the snaps87Brycen TremayneCAR · WR · first start-level week, 81% of the snaps13John Metchie IIICAR · WR · first start-level week, 56% of the snaps11Case KeenumCHI · QB · debut, 100% of the snaps81Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR · first start-level week, 56% of the snaps89Tyler HigbeeLA · TE · first start-level week, 71% of the snaps40Hayden RucciLAC · TE · debut, 41% of the snaps89Brock BowersLV · TE · debut, 79% of the snaps0Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB · first start-level week, 84% of the snaps1Kyler MurrayMIN · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps13Tai FeltonMIN · WR · first start-level week, 54% of the snaps87Sterling ShepardNYJ · WR · debut, 45% of the snaps84Malik McClainNYJ · WR · debut, 27% of the snaps86Zach ErtzPHI · TE · debut, 38% of the snaps14Sam DarnoldSEA · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps17Jordan WatkinsSF · WR · debut, 28% of the snaps87Payne DurhamTB · TE · first start-level week, 55% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.