2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Patriots, 7 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 35–6; their low point was 44% at Q1 3:58. The game turned for good at Q1 3:58: D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38 (44% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:58JAXD.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.turning point44% → 61%
- 2Q2 11:13NET.Lawrence pass short middle intended for B.Strange INTERCEPTED by M.Jones (J.Reed) at JAX 33. M.Jones to JAX 21 for 12 yards (E.Cleveland; J.Meyers).24% → 35%
- 3Q2 1:02JAXD.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.76% → 86%
- 4Q2 13:30JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 73%
- 5Q1 2:24JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to P.Washington to NE 39 for 18 yards (K.Byard).57% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Hollins led the Patriots at +5.0 EPA (6 catches for 87). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +10.1 EPA (19 of 29 for 182).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye81% | 14/25 | 199 | 2 | 3 | -14.2 | |
| T.DeVito19% | 3/5 | 30 | -0.5 | |||
| E.III25% | 1/1 | 16 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson37% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -2.4 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 7 | 27% | 22 | +3.6 | |
| C.Kiner13% | 6 | 23% | 18 | -1.7 | |
| D.Maye81% | 4 | 15% | 18 | -0.4 | |
| T.DeVito19% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins76% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 87 | +5.0 | |
| D.Douglas59% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 38 | -1.7 | |
| R.Doubs73% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 49 | +3.1 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 16 | +0.3 | |
| K.Williams35% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 34 | -6.0 | |
| H.Henry70% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -1.4 | |
| E.III25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| C.Kiner13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.0 | |
| T.Henderson37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense M.Jones 1 INT, E.Ponder 0.5 sacks, G.Jacas 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 2/3 FG (long 40)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence95% | 19/29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten48% | 15 | 50% | 73 | 1 | +2.6 |
| C.Jr.21% | 8 | 27% | 37 | 1 | +2.1 |
| T.Lawrence95% | 4 | 13% | 25 | +2.5 | |
| A.Abdullah11% | 3 | 10% | 2 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers81% | 8 | 30% | 7 | 64 | 1 | +8.3 |
| P.Washington81% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 40 | 1 | +4.7 |
| B.Strange77% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 32 | -4.8 | |
| L.Jr.18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 9 | -1.5 | |
| B.Tuten48% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| J.Cameron37% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +1.6 |
| A.Abdullah11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| B.Jr.37% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| N.Boerkircher45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, T.Hunter 1 INT, R.Orhorhoro 1 sack, D.Hamilton 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Little 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Jaguars give up 196 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 147. Patriots' wide receivers produce 157 (11th).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.87 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 11% of their throws there.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 23rd in EPA per carry (-0.14). Jaguars allow -0.19 (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Patriots create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (8th). Jaguars give them up at 8% (6th).
The Patriots lead the series 9–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). The Jaguars have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | NE 6 at JAX 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | NE 16 at JAX 32 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | JAX 10 at NE 50 |
| 2018 · Wk 2 | NE 20 at JAX 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 20 · playoffs | JAX 20 at NE 24 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 28.0 – 15.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | -0.10#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 5.6#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#8 | 8%#6 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#8 | -0.06#7 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.14#23 | -0.19#1 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#20 | 3.4#4 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#11 | 37%#9 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 45%#6 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#11 | 196#31 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#10 | 32#1 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.8#22 | 6.7#10 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#12 | 36#23 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.