2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Jaguars, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 35–6; their low point was 44% at Q1 3:58. The game turned for good at Q1 3:58: D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38 (44% → 61%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:58JAXD.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.turning point44% → 61%
- 2Q2 11:13NET.Lawrence pass short middle intended for B.Strange INTERCEPTED by M.Jones (J.Reed) at JAX 33. M.Jones to JAX 21 for 12 yards (E.Cleveland; J.Meyers).24% → 35%
- 3Q2 1:02JAXD.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.76% → 86%
- 4Q2 13:30JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 73%
- 5Q1 2:24JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to P.Washington to NE 39 for 18 yards (K.Byard).57% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Hollins led the Patriots at +5.0 EPA (6 catches for 87). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +10.1 EPA (19 of 29 for 182).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye81% | 14/25 | 199 | 2 | 3 | -14.2 | |
| T.DeVito19% | 3/5 | 30 | -0.5 | |||
| E.III25% | 1/1 | 16 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson37% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -2.4 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 7 | 27% | 22 | +3.6 | |
| C.Kiner13% | 6 | 23% | 18 | -1.7 | |
| D.Maye81% | 4 | 15% | 18 | -0.4 | |
| T.DeVito19% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins76% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 87 | +5.0 | |
| D.Douglas59% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 38 | -1.7 | |
| R.Doubs73% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 49 | +3.1 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 16 | +0.3 | |
| K.Williams35% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 34 | -6.0 | |
| H.Henry70% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -1.4 | |
| E.III25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| C.Kiner13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.0 | |
| T.Henderson37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense M.Jones 1 INT, E.Ponder 0.5 sacks, G.Jacas 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 2/3 FG (long 40)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence95% | 19/29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten48% | 15 | 50% | 73 | 1 | +2.6 |
| C.Jr.21% | 8 | 27% | 37 | 1 | +2.1 |
| T.Lawrence95% | 4 | 13% | 25 | +2.5 | |
| A.Abdullah11% | 3 | 10% | 2 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers81% | 8 | 30% | 7 | 64 | 1 | +8.3 |
| P.Washington81% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 40 | 1 | +4.7 |
| B.Strange77% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 32 | -4.8 | |
| L.Jr.18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 9 | -1.5 | |
| B.Tuten48% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| J.Cameron37% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +1.6 |
| A.Abdullah11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| B.Jr.37% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| N.Boerkircher45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, T.Hunter 1 INT, R.Orhorhoro 1 sack, D.Hamilton 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Little 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Jaguars gain +0.28 EPA per dropback (1st). Patriots allow +0.08 (22nd).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Pressure problem
Jaguars take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (15th). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jaguars gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 9–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). The Jaguars have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | NE 6 at JAX 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | NE 16 at JAX 32 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | JAX 10 at NE 50 |
| 2018 · Wk 2 | NE 20 at JAX 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 20 · playoffs | JAX 20 at NE 24 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–1 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 28.0 – 15.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.16#3 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#7 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#4 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.28#1 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.03#3 | -0.09#13 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#10 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 49%#4 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#7 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#14 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#11 | 52#14 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.7#23 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#16 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.