2026
2026 season · WR · #18 · 7th season
Justin Jefferson
Age 27 · 6'1" · 192 lb · LSU · Pick 22 overall (2020). Listed WR1 on the 3WR 1TE depth chart. Snap share 80% across 6 games.
- How goodJefferson's +21.8 EPA is 18th of 100 wide receivers.
- Where it comes fromThe biggest share comes after the catch (+15.7, 74th percentile per target).
- Fantasy9.7 standard points a game, WR18 of 171.12.1 half-PPR points a game, WR18 of 171.14.4 PPR points a game, WR18 of 171.
- How he's usedPlay action finds him: 34% of his targets come off a fake (league 16%).
- LatelyTargets are steady: 7.7 a game over his last three against 6.7 for the season.
- This weekA soft matchup: the Bills rank 23rd vs WR, allowing +0.35 EPA per target to wide receivers.
How good is hehis line against the league at his position
| Stat | Value | Rank | League | Pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target shareof team targets | 27% | 10th of 100 | 91st | |
| Depth of targetair yards per target | 10.0 | 69th of 100 | 32nd | |
| After the catchyards per reception | 3.5 | 57th of 100 | 44th | |
| Catch ratereceptions per target | 70% | 22nd of 100 | 78th | |
| EPA per target | +0.54 | 16th of 100 | 85th |
| Stat | Value | Rank | League | Pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First downsper target | 43% | 32nd of 100 | 69th | |
| Drop ratedrops per target, lower is better | 8% | 77th of 100 | 24th | |
| Yards per game | 55.8 | 30th of 100 | 71st | |
| Success rate | 53% | 44th of 100 | 56th | |
| Total EPA | +21.8 | 18th of 100 | 82nd |
How this is measured
Each bar is the league at his position; the marker is him. Right is better, the dashed line is the median. Ranks are out of the qualifying pool, ties shown as T-, and move every week as the pool changes.
Jefferson scores 9.7 standard points a game, WR18 of 171 WRs with enough games. Most weeks land between 4.4 and 12.8; 2 boom weeks (12+) and 2 busts (under 5). This week the Bills allow the 3rd-most standard points to WRs, 25.1 a game.
Jefferson scores 12.1 half-PPR points a game, WR18 of 171 WRs with enough games. Most weeks land between 6.4 and 15.8; 1 boom week (16+) and 2 busts (under 6.5). This week the Bills allow the 3rd-most half-PPR points to WRs, 31.1 a game.
Jefferson scores 14.4 PPR points a game, WR18 of 171 WRs with enough games. Most weeks land between 8.4 and 18.8; 1 boom week (20+) and 1 bust (under 8). This week the Bills allow the 5th-most PPR points to WRs, 37.1 a game.
How this is measured
Fantasy points are nflverse's standard and full-PPR scoring (6 points for a rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 for a passing touchdown, minus 2 for an interception or a lost fumble); half PPR is the average of the two. Ranks are points a game among players at his position with at least half the most games played. Most weeks is his 20th to 80th percentile game. Bars are green on a boom week and red on a bust; the dashed line is the starter line, the points a game of the WR24 in a 12-team league. The format you pick is remembered on this device.
How he's usedhis fingerprint, where the ball finds him and when
Play action finds him: 34% of his targets come off a fake (league 16%). The screen game runs through him: 15% of his targets are screens (league 5%). His share of the team's targets is 22%: on third down it climbs to 26%; inside the 20 it climbs to 30%. He lives outside the numbers: only 13% of his targets come over the middle (league 21%).
How this is measured
Every trait is a share of his own targets, so volume does not move it. The marker is him among the league's qualifying wide receivers; the dashed line is the median. Styles are not grades: a high or low percentile is a description, not a verdict. Play action, screen, RPO, motion and blitz flags come from FTN charting and read low in a week it has not published.
Jefferson's +21.8 EPA is 18th of 100 wide receivers. The biggest share comes after the catch (+15.7, 74th percentile per target).
career +0.36 over 2020–2025 · the best of his 7 seasons so far
How this is measured
Every target this season, split by what happened. Catches divide at the catch: the yards in the air and what came after. The percentile is him among the qualifying wide receivers, higher is better, so a cost smaller than most ranks high. The parts add up to the totals above; the career strip counts seasons with at least 15 targets.
He is targeted intermediate left 2.7× as often as the league (20% of his targets against 7%) and gains +0.14 EPA a target there.
How this is measured
Every target with a charted depth and direction this season; sacks and throws with no charted direction are left out. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. Cells with fewer than three targets show no EPA.
On the field
By depth of target
Who he works withthe connection, and the rest of the huddle
By depth
Week by weekthe shape of his season, the game log and the defenses behind it
The game
U.S. Bank Stadium
BUF −3.5 · O/U 45.5
His history
First meeting this season
His status
A soft matchup: the Bills rank 23rd vs WR, allowing +0.35 EPA per target to wide receivers. He has averaged 33 yards a game against bottom-10 defenses this season.
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | Snap | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs GB W 39-224th D | 4th vs WR | 92% | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | +12.5 |
| 2 | at CHI W 9-312th D | 12th vs WR | 100% | 6 | 3 | 55 | +1.5 | |
| 3 | at TB W 23-161st D | 1st vs WR | 12% | 2 | 2 | 32 | +1.7 | |
| 4 | vs MIA W 15-10Did not play · Out (ankle) | |||||||
| 5 | at NO W 23-1311th D | 11th vs WR | 89% | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | +5.5 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||||
| 7 | vs IND W 16-1015th D | 15th vs WR | 93% | 7 | 4 | 44 | +1.1 | |
| 8 | at DET L 15-1924th D | 24th vs WR | 96% | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | -0.6 |
| 9 | vs BUFMon Nov 9 · this week | |||||||
| 10 | at GBSun Nov 15 | |||||||
| 11 | at SFSun Nov 22 | |||||||
| 12 | vs ATLSun Nov 29 | |||||||
| 13 | vs CARSun Dec 6 | |||||||
| 14 | at NEThu Dec 10 | |||||||
| 15 | vs DETSun Dec 20 | |||||||
| 16 | vs WASSun Dec 27 | |||||||
| 17 | at NYJSun Jan 3 | |||||||
| 18 | vs CHISun Jan 10 | |||||||
| 6 games | 80% | 40 | 28 | 335 | 4 | +21.8 |
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | Tgt share | Air share | aDOT | YAC | EPA/tgt | 1D | Drops |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs GB W 39-224th D | 4th vs WR | 39% | 45% | 8.9 | 28 | +1.39 | 5 | |
| 2 | at CHI W 9-312th D | 12th vs WR | 32% | 58% | 15.2 | 10 | +0.25 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | at TB W 23-161st D | 1st vs WR | 8% | 7% | 9.0 | 14 | +0.86 | 1 | |
| 4 | vs MIA W 15-10Did not play · Out (ankle) | ||||||||
| 5 | at NO W 23-1311th D | 11th vs WR | 24% | 44% | 10.6 | 20 | +0.78 | 3 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | vs IND W 16-1015th D | 15th vs WR | 29% | 33% | 10.7 | 7 | +0.16 | 3 | |
| 8 | at DET L 15-1924th D | 24th vs WR | 32% | 19% | 6.7 | 18 | -0.06 | 3 | |
| 9 | vs BUFMon Nov 9 · this week | ||||||||
| 10 | at GBSun Nov 15 | ||||||||
| 11 | at SFSun Nov 22 | ||||||||
| 12 | vs ATLSun Nov 29 | ||||||||
| 13 | vs CARSun Dec 6 | ||||||||
| 14 | at NEThu Dec 10 | ||||||||
| 15 | vs DETSun Dec 20 | ||||||||
| 16 | vs WASSun Dec 27 | ||||||||
| 17 | at NYJSun Jan 3 | ||||||||
| 18 | vs CHISun Jan 10 | ||||||||
| 6 games | 27% | 34% | 10.0 | 97 | +0.54 | 17 | 3 |
| Wk | Opponent | Defense | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | 20+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs GB W 39-224th D | 4th vs WR | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | at CHI W 9-312th D | 12th vs WR | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 | |
| 3 | at TB W 23-161st D | 1st vs WR | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 1 | |
| 4 | vs MIA W 15-10Did not play · Out (ankle) | ||||||
| 5 | at NO W 23-1311th D | 11th vs WR | 6 | 79 | 13.2 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||
| 7 | vs IND W 16-1015th D | 15th vs WR | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 1 | |
| 8 | at DET L 15-1924th D | 24th vs WR | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 | |
| 9 | vs BUFMon Nov 9 · this week | ||||||
| 10 | at GBSun Nov 15 | ||||||
| 11 | at SFSun Nov 22 | ||||||
| 12 | vs ATLSun Nov 29 | ||||||
| 13 | vs CARSun Dec 6 | ||||||
| 14 | at NEThu Dec 10 | ||||||
| 15 | vs DETSun Dec 20 | ||||||
| 16 | vs WASSun Dec 27 | ||||||
| 17 | at NYJSun Jan 3 | ||||||
| 18 | vs CHISun Jan 10 | ||||||
| 6 games | 28 | 335 | 12.0 | 4 | 5 |
Targets are steady: 7.7 a game over his last three against 6.7 for the season. 3 straight games above a starter's median in targets.
How this is measured
Bars are his week. The shaded band is the league's middle half at his position, every qualifying player-game this season, and the dashed line is its median. The solid line is his trailing three games. An × on the baseline is a game his team played without him; a dotted tick is the bye.
He has faced the 1st-toughest slate vs WR: his opponents rank 11.2 of 32 on average (league middle 16.4). Ahead: 2 of his next 10 are top-10 vs WR and 3 are bottom-10, starting with the Bills (23rd) in Week 9.
The slate · played solid, ahead dashed
His line by defense faced
| Defenses | G | Tgt/g | Yds/g | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ranked 1 to 10Top-10 defenses | 2 | 5.5 | 62 | +1.29 |
| 11 to 22Middle | 3 | 6.7 | 59 | +0.40 |
| 23 to 32Bottom-10 | 1 | 9.0 | 33 | -0.06 |
| All games | 6 | 6.7 | 56 | +0.54 |
Yards against the rank of the defense
His production barely moves with the opponent (r = -0.35); it has traveled.
Careerseason by season, back to his rookie year
His best year was 2022, 1,809 receiving yards in 17 games. This season's 55.8 a game puts him on pace for 949 over 17, short of it.
| Season | Team | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/R | Yds/g | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 15.9 | 87.5 | +0.53 |
| 2021 | MIN | 17 | 167 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 15.0 | 95.1 | +0.47 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 184 | 128 | 1,809 | 8 | 14.1 | 106.4 | +0.41 |
| 2023 | MIN | 10 | 100 | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | 15.8 | 107.4 | +0.43 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 154 | 103 | 1,533 | 10 | 14.9 | 90.2 | +0.42 |
| 2025 | MIN | 17 | 141 | 84 | 1,048 | 2 | 12.5 | 61.6 | -0.10 |
| 2026 | MIN | 6 | 40 | 28 | 335 | 4 | 12.0 | 55.8 | +0.54 |
| Career | 1 tm | 100 | 911 | 607 | 8,815 | 46 | 14.5 | 88.2 | +0.37 |
How this is measured
Regular season only, from nflverse weekly stats back to 1999. This season is partial and drawn hollow; the pace is his per-game rate over 17 games. Bold cells are career highs.
Intel & playsthe report, his best snaps, his teammates
- Depth chart
- WR1 · 3WR 1TE
- Injury report
- clean
- Red zone touches
- …
- Third down
- …
- Explosive plays
- …
- Drops
- 3 on 40 targets
- Broken tackles
- 1
- Passer rating when targeted
- 115.7
- Play action
- …
- Contested
- …
| Player | Touches | Yds | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 548 · 2 TD | -24.6 | |
| 40 | 147 · 1 TD | -10.4 | |
| 37 | 295 · 3 TD | +24.9 | |
| 35 | 251 · 1 TD | -9.4 | |
| 29 | 167 | +5.1 | |
| 10 | 54 | -4.5 | |
| 8 | 5 | -2.1 | |
| 8 | 54 | +3.3 |