2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
vs
Seahawks offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Seahawks, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 33–31 from as low as 22% (Q1 14:18, tied 0–0). The Seahawks had been 75% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 4:24: S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to R.Shaheed (R.Douglas, J.Reaves) [K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-R.Shaheed has returned to the game.… (47% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:09, 34 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:09WASS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS,…56% → 90%
- 2Q3 12:10WASS.Darnold pass short left intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by S.Styles (T.Settle) at SEA 42. S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (G.Holani).50% → 66%
- 3Q4 11:57SEAS.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 59%
- 4Q2 1:51WASS.Darnold pass incomplete short right to A.Barner (J.Reaves) [K.Medrano].40% → 52%
- 5Q4 8:40WASM.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (J.Jobe).42% → 53%
- ★Q4 4:24WASS.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to R.Shaheed (R.Douglas, J.Reaves) [K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-R.Shaheed has returned to the game.…turning point47% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +5.7 EPA (31 of 45 for 379). T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +5.2 EPA (6 catches for 77).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 31/45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | +4.1 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba87% | 1/1 | 14 | +0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson36% | 9 | 50% | 14 | -3.3 | |
| J.Price28% | 5 | 28% | 15 | -6.0 | |
| G.Holani36% | 3 | 17% | 10 | -0.3 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 1 | 6% | 5 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba87% | 14 | 31% | 10 | 128 | 2 | +3.4 |
| A.Barner91% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 69 | -8.4 | |
| C.Kupp67% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 46 | 1 | +3.6 |
| G.Holani36% | 5 | 11% | 5 | 48 | +2.3 | |
| R.Shaheed46% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 14 | -1.9 | |
| T.Horton22% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 48 | +3.6 | |
| J.Price28% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| E.Saubert27% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 13 | 1 | +1.5 |
| B.Russell18% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 20 | +1.9 |
Defense L.Williams 1 sack, D.Hall 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 1/1 FG (long 57)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 19/31 | 183 | 3 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt57% | 19 | 59% | 36 | -7.2 | |
| R.White43% | 8 | 25% | 35 | -1.6 | |
| M.Mariota100% | 5 | 16% | 11 | -1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin75% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 77 | 1 | +5.2 |
| S.Diggs59% | 7 | 23% | 4 | 33 | -1.0 | |
| A.Williams41% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 15 | -1.6 | |
| T.Burks36% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +2.1 |
| C.Yankoff46% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 2 | -1.8 | |
| D.Brown30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| J.Bates54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| R.White43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| B.Sinnott49% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| J.Lane7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +1.6 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt57% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 |
Defense K.Medrano 1 INT, S.Styles 1 INT · Kicking D.Stevens 2/2 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Commanders give up 149 yards a game to wide receivers (18th), against a league average of 147. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 185 (4th).
Deep right is open
Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Seahawks average 3.7 yards per carry (22nd). Commanders allow 3.5 (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Seahawks average -0.04 EPA per play (23rd). Commanders allow +0.03 (21st). League average is +0.00.
The Commanders lead the series 9–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | SEA 31 at WAS 33 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | SEA 38 at WAS 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | WAS 26 at SEA 29 |
| 2021 · Wk 12 | SEA 15 at WAS 17 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | SEA 20 at WAS 15 |
2026 records
| Seahawks | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–3 | 2–4–1 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Conference | 1–2 | 2–3–1 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Away | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | WLTLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.0 – 17.9 | 22.7 – 26.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#23 | +0.03#21 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#22 | 46%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#17 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#15 | 8%#8 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#18 | +0.02#17 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.22#30 | -0.08#16 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#22 | 3.5#5 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#15 | 44%#26 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#21 | 79%#29 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 185#4 | 149#18 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 31#29 | 75#30 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#29 | 8.0#22 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#17 | 36#22 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.