DOWN X DOWN › week 3 › Seahawks at Commanders

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Commanders offensevsSeahawks defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Commanders, 8 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

SEA offense WAS offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · SEA 31 · WAS 33

The Commanders won 33–31 from as low as 22% (Q1 14:18, tied 0⁠–⁠0). The Seahawks had been 75% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 4:24: S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to R.Shaheed (R.Douglas, J.Reaves) [K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-R.Shaheed has returned to the game.… (47% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:09, 34 points for the Commanders.

At kickoffSEA 75%SEA by 8.5 on the line

WAS low point22%Q1 14:18 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%13times the favorite changed

Biggest swing34 ptsWAS · Q4 4:09

WAS wins50%SEA wins

12345Turning pointWAS low 22%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 4:09SEAS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS,…56% → 90%+34 WAS
2Q3 12:10SEAS.Darnold pass short left intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by S.Styles (T.Settle) at SEA 42. S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (G.Holani).50% → 66%+16 WAS
3Q4 11:57SEAS.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 59%+15 SEA
4Q2 1:51SEAS.Darnold pass incomplete short right to A.Barner (J.Reaves) [K.Medrano].40% → 52%+12 WAS
5Q4 8:40WASM.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (J.Jobe).42% → 53%+12 WAS
★Q4 4:24SEAS.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to R.Shaheed (R.Douglas, J.Reaves) [K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-R.Shaheed has returned to the game.…turning point47% → 54%+7 WAS

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 3

S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +5.7 EPA (31 of 45 for 379). T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +5.2 EPA (6 catches for 77).

Seahawks

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
S.Darnold100%	31/45	379	4	2		+4.1
J.Smith-Njigba87%	1/1	14				+0.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
E.Wilson36%	9	50%	14	-3.3
J.Price28%	5	28%	15	-6.0
G.Holani36%	3	17%	10	-0.3
S.Darnold100%	1	6%	5	+1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Smith-Njigba87%	14	31%	10	128	2	+3.4
A.Barner91%	9	20%	5	69		-8.4
C.Kupp67%	5	11%	4	46	1	+3.6
G.Holani36%	5	11%	5	48		+2.3
R.Shaheed46%	3	7%	2	14		-1.9
T.Horton22%	3	7%	3	48		+3.6
J.Price28%	3	7%	1	7		-0.4
E.Saubert27%	2	4%	1	13	1	+1.5
B.Russell18%	1	2%	1	20		+1.9

Defense L.Williams 1 sack, D.Hall 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 1/1 FG, 4/4 XP, 7 pts

Commanders

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
M.Mariota100%	19/31	183	3		2	+3.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
J.Croskey-Merritt57%	19	59%	36	-7.2
R.White43%	8	25%	35	-1.6
M.Mariota100%	5	16%	11	-1.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.McLaurin75%	9	30%	6	77	1	+5.2
S.Diggs59%	7	23%	4	33		-1.0
A.Williams41%	4	13%	2	15		-1.6
T.Burks36%	2	7%	2	13	1	+2.1
C.Yankoff46%	2	7%	1	2		-1.8
D.Brown30%	1	3%	0	0		-1.0
J.Bates54%	1	3%	1	9		+0.8
R.White43%	1	3%	1	6	1	+1.7
B.Sinnott49%	1	3%	0	0		-0.3
J.Lane7%	1	3%	1	21		+1.6
J.Croskey-Merritt57%	1	3%	1	7		+0.5

Defense K.Medrano 1 INT, S.Styles 1 INT · Kicking D.Stevens 2/2 FG, 3/4 XP, 9 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Commanders score a touchdown on 55% of red zone trips (21st). Seahawks allow 88% (32nd).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.88 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Seahawks give up 38 yards a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 55. Commanders' tight ends produce 33 (27th).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Commanders create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (14th). Seahawks give them up at 5% (2nd).

The series · Seahawks and Commanders since 1999, and this season's records16 meetings

The Commanders lead the series 9–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.

Seahawks at home3–4the Seahawks' record

In Washington4–5the Seahawks' record

Most pointsSeahawks 38 · Commanders 332025 · 2026

Biggest winSeahawks by 24 · Commanders by 132025 · 2001

Playoffs3–0the Seahawks' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 3	SEA 31 at WAS 33
2025 · Wk 9	SEA 38 at WAS 14
2023 · Wk 10	WAS 26 at SEA 29
2021 · Wk 12	SEA 15 at WAS 17
2020 · Wk 15	SEA 20 at WAS 15

2026 records

	Seahawks	Commanders
Overall	4–4	2–4–1
Division	1–1	1–2–1
Conference	1–3	2–3–1
Other conference	3–1	0–1
Home	3–2	2–1–1
Away	1–2	0–3
Last 5	WLLWL	WLTLW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 1
Points a game	23.1 – 19.9	22.7 – 26.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · WAS offense against SEA defense

Stat	WAS off	SEA def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.01#18	-0.09#5	+0.00
Success rate	41%#24	39%#2	44%
Yards per play	5.3#21	4.2#1	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#14	5%#2	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.01#20	-0.10#4	+0.03
Sack rate	7%#18	7%#15	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.12#21	-0.11#10	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.9#18	3.4#3	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	32%#31	34%#7	41%
Red zone TD rate	55%#21	88%#32	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	156#13	100#1	147
TE yards per game	33#27	38#3	55
TE targets per game	5.1#28	6.9#11	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	24#24	31#14	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Commanders: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.639% of throws

4too few

-0.0313% of throws

Short

+0.1026% of throws

+0.1318% of throws

-0.0233% of throws

Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.7617 throws

+0.8810 throws

-0.3720 throws