2026
Week 3 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Maracana Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Ravens, 8 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 34–31; their low point was 28% at Q4 7:29. The game turned for good at Q4 0:20: D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (R.Smith). DAL-T.Steele was injured during the play (46% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:01, 19 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:01BALT.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD81% → 100%
- 2Q2 11:37BALL.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play.48% → 65%
- 3Q4 0:20DALD.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (R.Smith). DAL-T.Steele was injured during the play.turning point46% → 61%
- 4Q4 1:54BALL.Jackson pass short left to Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (D.Winters).52% → 67%
- 5Q4 1:34BALL.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Jackson led the Ravens at +14.3 EPA (15 of 20 for 186). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +12.6 EPA (25 of 40 for 276).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 15/20 | 186 | 2 | +11.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry67% | 26 | 68% | 89 | 2 | -10.8 |
| L.Jackson100% | 6 | 16% | 50 | +2.4 | |
| J.Hill33% | 5 | 13% | 33 | +2.7 | |
| Z.Flowers33% | 1 | 3% | 20 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers33% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 84 | +6.6 | |
| M.Andrews52% | 5 | 25% | 3 | 24 | -0.6 | |
| R.Bateman88% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 37 | +2.1 | |
| M.Hibner50% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +3.3 |
| C.Moore52% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.1 |
| D.Henry67% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| D.Walker27% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| J.Cuevas25% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 |
Defense R.Smith 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG, 4/4 XP, 10 pts
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 25/40 | 276 | 1 | 1 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams76% | 19 | 63% | 98 | 1 | -0.9 |
| T.Goodson15% | 6 | 20% | 22 | -1.1 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 13% | 19 | -0.8 | |
| K.Turpin16% | 1 | 3% | 9 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens85% | 11 | 28% | 7 | 82 | +5.1 | |
| C.Lamb82% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 112 | +11.1 | |
| R.Flournoy66% | 8 | 20% | 2 | 22 | -2.8 | |
| J.Ferguson69% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 23 | 1 | -4.6 |
| J.Williams76% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 5 | +0.8 | |
| K.Turpin16% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| T.Goodson15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -5 | -1.0 | |
| L.Schoonmaker22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| B.Spann-Ford38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/4 FG (59 blocked), 2/2 XP, 11 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 4.5 yards per carry (8th). Cowboys allow 5.1 (31st).
Short middle is open
Cowboys are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.59 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 24% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cowboys give up 27 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Ravens' running backs produce 22 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Ravens average +0.02 EPA per play (15th). Cowboys allow +0.13 (31st). League average is +0.00.
The Ravens lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | BAL 34 at DAL 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | BAL 28 at DAL 25 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | DAL 17 at BAL 34 |
| 2016 · Wk 11 | BAL 17 at DAL 27 |
| 2012 · Wk 6 | DAL 29 at BAL 31 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Division | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 27.4 – 26.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | +0.13#31 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#12 | 46%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.8#9 | 6.1#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 11%#27 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#14 | +0.21#30 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#27 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#16 | -0.01#29 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#8 | 5.1#31 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#15 | 53%#31 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 70%#26 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 148#15 | 164#26 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 53#19 | 53#17 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.8#13 | 7.1#14 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#25 | 27#10 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.