2026
Week 3 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Maracana Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cowboys, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 34–31; their low point was 28% at Q4 7:29. The game turned for good at Q4 0:20: D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (R.Smith). DAL-T.Steele was injured during the play (46% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:01, 19 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:01BALT.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD81% → 100%
- 2Q2 11:37BALL.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play.48% → 65%
- 3Q4 0:20BALD.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (R.Smith). DAL-T.Steele was injured during the play.turning point46% → 61%
- 4Q4 1:54BALL.Jackson pass short left to Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (D.Winters).52% → 67%
- 5Q4 1:34BALL.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Jackson led the Ravens at +14.3 EPA (15 of 20 for 186). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +12.6 EPA (25 of 40 for 276).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 15/20 | 186 | 2 | +11.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry67% | 26 | 68% | 89 | 2 | -10.8 |
| L.Jackson100% | 6 | 16% | 50 | +2.4 | |
| J.Hill33% | 5 | 13% | 33 | +2.7 | |
| Z.Flowers33% | 1 | 3% | 20 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers33% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 84 | +6.6 | |
| M.Andrews52% | 5 | 25% | 3 | 24 | -0.6 | |
| R.Bateman88% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 37 | +2.1 | |
| M.Hibner50% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +3.3 |
| C.Moore52% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.1 |
| D.Henry67% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| D.Walker27% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| J.Cuevas25% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 |
Defense R.Smith 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG (long 56)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 25/40 | 276 | 1 | 1 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams76% | 19 | 63% | 98 | 1 | -0.9 |
| T.Goodson15% | 6 | 20% | 22 | -1.1 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 13% | 19 | -0.8 | |
| K.Turpin16% | 1 | 3% | 9 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens85% | 11 | 28% | 7 | 82 | +5.1 | |
| C.Lamb82% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 112 | +11.1 | |
| R.Flournoy66% | 8 | 20% | 2 | 22 | -2.8 | |
| J.Ferguson69% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 23 | 1 | -4.6 |
| J.Williams76% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 5 | +0.8 | |
| K.Turpin16% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| T.Goodson15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -5 | -1.0 | |
| L.Schoonmaker22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| B.Spann-Ford38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/4 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 178 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 147. Cowboys' wide receivers produce 207 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Ravens give up 18 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 17 (30th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Cowboys gain 5.4 yards per play (20th). Ravens give up 5.4 (14th), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | BAL 34 at DAL 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | BAL 28 at DAL 25 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | DAL 17 at BAL 34 |
| 2016 · Wk 11 | BAL 17 at DAL 27 |
| 2012 · Wk 6 | DAL 29 at BAL 31 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Division | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 27.4 – 26.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#7 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#9 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#20 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#29 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#7 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#10 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#24 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 50%#3 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#10 | 68%#22 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 207#2 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 32#28 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#30 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.