2026
Week 3 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cardinals, 7 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 36–30 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:40, 13 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:40SFB.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 88%
- 2Q4 13:38ARIJ.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to T.McBride. SF-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir, Defensive Pass Interference,…9% → 17%
- 3Q4 2:51SFB.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (Ma.Wilson; J.Gibbens).82% → 90%
- 4Q4 2:55ARIJ.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined.12% → 20%
- 5Q3 0:41ARIB.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30 S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-S.Fehoko at SF 28.5% → 12%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Brissett led the Cardinals at +11.7 EPA (38 of 52 for 280). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +23.8 EPA (15 of 27 for 297).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 38/52 | 280 | 2 | 2 | +10.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love64% | 21 | 78% | 90 | +1.8 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 1 | +1.6 |
| T.Allgeier36% | 2 | 7% | -1 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Wilson93% | 17 | 34% | 11 | 89 | 1 | +5.9 |
| T.McBride91% | 11 | 22% | 9 | 75 | +5.3 | |
| M.Jr.77% | 5 | 10% | 3 | 40 | +1.1 | |
| J.Love64% | 5 | 10% | 5 | 19 | 1 | +0.7 |
| T.Allgeier36% | 4 | 8% | 4 | 10 | -0.6 | |
| K.Bourne55% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 22 | +0.5 | |
| E.Higgins40% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 20 | +1.5 | |
| H.Long34% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | |
| J.Brooks5% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking C.Ryland 3/3 FG (long 49)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 15/27 | 297 | 4 | +22.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey83% | 15 | 65% | 75 | 1 | -0.4 |
| K.Black15% | 4 | 17% | 17 | -0.6 | |
| D.Sr.76% | 2 | 9% | 14 | -0.3 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 2 | 9% | 34 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Kittle85% | 7 | 27% | 6 | 82 | 2 | +10.2 |
| M.Evans33% | 6 | 23% | 3 | 34 | 1 | +9.5 |
| C.McCaffrey83% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 41 | +2.4 | |
| K.Juszczyk56% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| J.Cowing31% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Watkins28% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 60 | +4.4 | |
| L.Farrell33% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Black15% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense O.Okoronkwo 1 sack, K.White 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 1/1 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
49ers give up 7.9 targets a game to tight ends (19th), against a league average of 7.6. Cardinals' tight ends produce 13.5 (2nd).
Short left is open
49ers are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.36 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 29% of their throws there.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Cardinals score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (30th). 49ers allow 48% (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 44% of plays (13th) against a defense that allows 44% (20th).
The 49ers lead the series 29–22 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | ARI 30 at SF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | SF 41 at ARI 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ARI 15 at SF 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | SF 24 at ARI 47 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | ARI 24 at SF 23 |
2026 records
| Cardinals | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 0–3 | 4–0 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LLWLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.9 – 29.8 | 28.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#19 | -0.05#8 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 44%#13 | 44%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#27 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#31 | 4%#1 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#21 | +0.04#18 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#12 | -0.18#2 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#14 | 3.6#7 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 38%#11 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#30 | 48%#7 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 123#26 | 132#11 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 91#2 | 44#7 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.5#2 | 7.9#19 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#23 | 49#32 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.