2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chiefs, 7 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 24–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 76%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:55, 9 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:55KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Kelce to MIA 19 for 48 yards (D.Trader).79% → 88%
- 2Q3 13:16MIAM.Willis pass short right to O.Gordon to KC 11 for 19 yards (A.Gilman; N.Williams).15% → 21%
- 3Q3 4:40MIAM.Willis pass short middle to C.Bell to KC 43 for 12 yards (M.Delane).18% → 24%
- 4Q3 14:15MIAM.Willis pass deep middle to G.Dulcich to KC 30 for 42 yards (N.Williams).12% → 18%
- 5Q3 2:26KCP.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to R.Rice. PENALTY on MIA-C.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 5 - No Play. Penalty on…80% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +12.3 EPA (20 of 24 for 246). C.Bell led the Dolphins at +3.5 EPA (4 catches for 67).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 20/24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | +12.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III73% | 18 | 72% | 70 | 1 | -4.9 |
| E.Johnson27% | 6 | 24% | 17 | -0.6 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice77% | 9 | 39% | 7 | 88 | +0.2 | |
| N.Gray63% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 39 | +2.4 | |
| T.Kelce79% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 59 | 1 | +6.5 |
| T.Thornton46% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 22 | +2.3 | |
| K.III73% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1.3 |
| X.Worthy83% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 20 | +1.0 | |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| J.Briningstool12% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Royals19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 |
Defense G.Karlaftis 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 1/2 FG (50 no good), 3/3 XP, 6 pts
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 20/36 | 210 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II84% | 17 | 55% | 41 | 1 | -5.0 |
| M.Willis100% | 9 | 29% | 56 | -1.0 | |
| D.Achane5% | 3 | 10% | 17 | +0.8 | |
| M.Washington86% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Washington86% | 10 | 29% | 5 | 56 | -3.5 | |
| G.Dulcich70% | 7 | 20% | 5 | 55 | +0.9 | |
| C.Bell71% | 7 | 20% | 4 | 67 | +3.5 | |
| K.Jr.62% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 3 | -3.6 | |
| R.Miller22% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 15 | -0.2 | |
| O.II84% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 14 | +0.3 | |
| D.Achane5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Rodriguez 1 INT · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG, 1/1 XP, 4 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Dolphins give up 69 yards a game to tight ends (28th), against a league average of 55. Chiefs' tight ends produce 85 (3rd).
Deep right is open
Dolphins are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.34 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Dolphins give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 147. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 118 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chiefs create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (9th). Dolphins give them up at 11% (26th).
The Chiefs lead the series 8–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | KC 24 at MIA 10 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | MIA 7 at KC 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | MIA 14 at KC 21 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | KC 33 at MIA 27 |
| 2017 · Wk 16 | MIA 13 at KC 29 |
2026 records
| Chiefs | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 1–6 |
| Division | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–4 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.9 – 18.7 | 16.7 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.13#4 | +0.13#32 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#6 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.4#3 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 11%#26 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.14#9 | +0.30#32 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#4 | 4%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.09#2 | -0.07#19 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.3#1 | 4.1#18 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#13 | 54%#32 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#19 | 64%#19 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 118#28 | 121#4 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 85#3 | 69#28 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#7 | 7.9#18 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#1 | 41#25 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.