2026
Week 3 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Rams offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Rams, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 30–26 from as low as 9% (Q3 14:08, down 16–0). The game turned for good at Q4 3:26: B.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl) (28% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 5:01, 54 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:01DENM.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 73%
- 2Q4 3:46LAM.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 65%
- 3Q4 0:02DENM.Stafford pass deep right intended for D.Adams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.72% → 100%
- 4Q4 3:26DENB.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl).turning point28% → 52%
- 5Q4 13:07LAB.Nix pass short left intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by J.Wallace (K.Turner) at LA 37. J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (L.Wattenberg).43% → 63%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Mumpfield led the Rams at +7.1 EPA (4 catches for 93). P.Bryant led the Broncos at +6.5 EPA (2 catches for 44).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 30/55 | 390 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams71% | 15 | 65% | 88 | +1.6 | |
| B.Corum29% | 6 | 26% | 15 | -2.1 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +2.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Adams83% | 13 | 27% | 7 | 137 | +5.1 | |
| T.Higbee71% | 11 | 22% | 8 | 62 | 1 | +1.9 |
| K.Mumpfield73% | 8 | 16% | 4 | 93 | 1 | +7.1 |
| K.Williams71% | 7 | 14% | 6 | 70 | -5.0 | |
| B.Corum29% | 4 | 8% | 2 | 0 | -2.3 | |
| D.Allen36% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 19 | +0.6 | |
| T.Ferguson26% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| C.Parkinson43% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Wallace 1 INT, O.Speights 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 4/4 FG (long 48)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 17/34 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins49% | 17 | 68% | 49 | -1.9 | |
| B.Nix100% | 4 | 16% | 7 | 1 | +2.0 |
| R.Harvey36% | 2 | 8% | 6 | -0.8 | |
| J.Waddle73% | 1 | 4% | 14 | +1.0 | |
| T.Badie18% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton87% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 46 | -1.6 | |
| J.Waddle73% | 7 | 23% | 2 | 10 | -2.9 | |
| R.Harvey36% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 41 | +0.2 | |
| E.Engram60% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 | |
| J.Dobbins49% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.6 | |
| N.Adkins34% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | 1 | +1.6 |
| P.Bryant70% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 44 | 1 | +6.5 |
| T.Badie18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +1.2 | |
| T.Franklin18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +1.6 |
Defense T.Hufanga 1 sack and 2 INT, Z.Allen 1 sack, N.Bonitto 1 sack, E.Uwazurike 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.8 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.6. Rams' tight ends produce 10.1 (4th).
Short middle is open
Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. Rams send 18% of their throws there.
Passing lanes are closed
Rams gain +0.07 EPA per dropback (15th). Broncos allow -0.06 (6th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Rams succeed on 49% of plays (5th) against a defense that allows 40% (7th).
The Rams lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | LA 26 at DEN 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | DEN 14 at LA 51 |
| 2018 · Wk 6 | LA 23 at DEN 20 |
| 2014 · Wk 11 | DEN 7 at LA 22 |
| 2010 · Wk 12 | LA 36 at DEN 33 |
2026 records
| Rams | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Division | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Home | 2–3 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLWW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 24.3 – 21.0 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#10 | -0.03#13 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#5 | 40%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.2#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#23 | 9%#15 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.07#15 | -0.06#6 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#5 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.01#7 | -0.02#26 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#4 | 4.4#22 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#5 | 43%#22 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#6 | 48%#8 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#10 | 131#9 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 66#6 | 68#26 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.1#4 | 8.8#27 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 43#8 | 48#31 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.