2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Jets offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Jets, 7 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 31–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:11, 22 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:11NYJG.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed). Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets…8% → 31%
- 2Q4 4:06DETJ.Goff pass deep middle to I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (A.Cisco).63% → 80%
- 3Q4 2:30DETJ.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 90%
- 4Q2 5:40NYJG.Smith pass deep right to K.Sadiq for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 39%
- 5Q4 0:51DETG.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards (C.Clark). FUMBLES (C.Clark) [C.Clark], RECOVERED by DET-J.Campbell at DET 45. J.Campbell to NYJ 43 for 12…90% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Smith led the Jets at +10.8 EPA (31 of 37 for 321). J.Goff led the Lions at +9.6 EPA (25 of 32 for 269).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 31/37 | 321 | 3 | 5 | +10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall48% | 13 | 68% | 32 | -4.2 | |
| B.Allen52% | 4 | 21% | 14 | -0.6 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 11% | 12 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson94% | 13 | 36% | 10 | 107 | 1 | +6.3 |
| K.Sadiq58% | 8 | 22% | 7 | 105 | 1 | +6.5 |
| J.Ruckert42% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +4.5 |
| B.Hall48% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 23 | +2.2 | |
| B.Allen52% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| I.Williams89% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 21 | +2.6 | |
| S.Shepard45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | +0.8 | |
| J.Woods38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | +1.3 |
Defense D.Davis 1 sack, A.Cisco 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 1/1 FG (long 42)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 25/32 | 269 | 2 | 2 | +12.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 20 | 67% | 99 | 2 | 0.0 |
| S.Vaki31% | 6 | 20% | 26 | +0.7 | |
| J.Goff100% | 4 | 13% | 6 | -2.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown74% | 8 | 26% | 4 | 19 | 1 | -1.4 |
| J.Gibbs69% | 8 | 26% | 7 | 65 | 1 | +5.8 |
| J.Williams82% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 49 | +3.4 | |
| S.LaPorta92% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 44 | +1.1 | |
| I.TeSlaa48% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 66 | +6.3 | |
| B.Wright58% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| S.Vaki31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 | |
| J.Meeks15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 |
Defense D.Wonnum 2 sacks, C.Clark 1 sack, A.McNeill 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 11.4 targets a game to tight ends (32nd), against a league average of 7.6. Jets' tight ends produce 7.9 (12th).
Deep right is open
Lions are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Jets send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Jets take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (26th). Lions get home on 8% (7th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 5.6 yards per play (11th). Lions give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Lions have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | NYJ 24 at DET 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | DET 20 at NYJ 17 |
| 2018 · Wk 1 | NYJ 48 at DET 17 |
| 2014 · Wk 4 | DET 24 at NYJ 17 |
| 2010 · Wk 9 · OT | NYJ 23 at DET 20 |
2026 records
| Jets | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Division | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Home | 1–3 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–3 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | LWLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 23.5 | 29.0 – 25.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#11 | +0.11#30 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#11 | 45%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#5 | 11%#30 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#10 | +0.18#29 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#19 | -0.09#12 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#12 | 3.9#16 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#23 | 46%#27 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#32 | 74%#28 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#12 | 177#27 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#21 | 98#32 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.9#12 | 11.4#32 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 23#8 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.