2026
2026 season · Sep 9 to Sep 14 · 16 games
Week 1 in review
What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved. Read the Week 1 write-up
- UpsetThe Cardinals beat the Chargers 26–14 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
- ComebackThe Vikings were down to 10% against the Packers and won 39–22.
- WildestBills at Texans: the lead changed hands 8 times; the Bills won 36–31, and the biggest swing was 28 points at Q4 1:41.
- Best offenseThe Bears: +0.41 EPA a play against the Panthers, +0.42 against their usual.
- Best defenseThe Chiefs held the Broncos to −0.34 EPA a play, −0.35 against what they usually allow.
- PlayerJaxson Dart (NYG QB): +25.6 EPA, 23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD · 11-54 rush.
The gamesevery final with its win-probability line
Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.
The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball
- 1
Seahawks · Q4 0:26 · NE at SEAD.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.+5637% → 93% - 2
Bills · Q4 1:41 · BUF at HOUJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2858% → 86% - 3
Seahawks · Q4 11:38 · NE at SEAD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2721% → 48% - 4
Bills · Q4 0:25 · BUF at HOUC.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).+2653% → 79% - 5
Patriots · Q4 2:00 · NE at SEAD.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (E.Jones).+2424% → 48% - 6
Steelers · Q4 14:16 · ATL at PITC.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1874% → 92% - 7
Seahawks · Q4 0:38 · NE at SEAD.Maye sacked at SEA 28 for -7 yards (D.Hall).+1833% → 51% - 8
Packers · Q1 7:54 · GB at MINJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.+1858% → 76% - 9
Bills · Q2 4:13 · BUF at HOUJ.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Moore (K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 -…+1849% → 67% - 10
Cardinals · Q4 12:28 · ARI at LACJ.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3.+1857% → 75%
- 1
Packers · Q1 7:54 · vs MIN · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.+7.1EPA - 2
Chiefs · Q3 12:53 · vs DEN · Kenneth Walker IIIJ.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.6EPA - 3
Seahawks · Q4 11:38 · vs NE · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.1EPA - 4
Bears · Q3 0:50 · vs CAR · Kyle MonangaiK.Monangai up the middle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-B.Brown has returned to the game.+5.2EPA - 5
Chiefs · Q3 6:09 · vs DEN · Travis KelceP.Mahomes pass short left to T.Kelce to DEN 4 for 59 yards.+5.1EPA - 6
Eagles · Q4 6:12 · vs WAS · Dallas GoedertJ.Hurts pass short middle to D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA - 7
Ravens · Q2 7:04 · vs IND · Zay FlowersL.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA - 8
Browns · Q4 2:00 · vs JAX · Denzel BostonD.Watson pass deep middle to D.Boston for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA - 9
Ravens · Q4 15:00 · vs IND · Chris MooreL.Jackson pass deep left to C.Moore to IND 19 for 53 yards.+4.7EPA - 10
Panthers · Q2 12:49 · vs CHI · Jalen CokerB.Young pass deep left to J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play
EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.
Playersthe best games by position, by EPA
- 1
Jaxson DartNYG vs DAL · 23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD · 11-54 rush+25.6
- 2
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CAR · 21/29, 269 yds, 2 TD · 10-65 rush+22.0
- 3
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE · 18/23, 245 yds, 4 TD+18.6
- 4
Bryce YoungCAR vs CHI · 23/37, 361 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT+17.2
- 5
Lamar JacksonBAL vs IND · 17/25, 324 yds, 1 TD · 7-40 rush+12.6
- 6
Josh AllenBUF vs HOU · 20/29, 334 yds, 2 TD · 6-23 rush+12.2
- 7
Dak PrescottDAL vs NYG · 22/34, 175 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT+11.3
- 8
Jacoby BrissettARI vs LAC · 27/37, 277 yds, 1 TD · 6-14 rush+11.1
- 1
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN · 23 car, 173 yds, 1 TD · 3-18 rec+10.7
- 2
D'Andre SwiftCHI vs CAR · 18 car, 124 yds, 3 TD · 1-10 rec+10.0
- 3
Derrick HenryBAL vs IND · 24 car, 144 yds, 3 TD · 1-19 rec+8.5
- 4
Chuba HubbardCAR vs CHI · 10 car, 49 yds, 1 TD · 3-38 rec+5.8
- 5
Kyle MonangaiCHI vs CAR · 10 car, 100 yds, 1 TD · 2-24 rec+3.9
- 6
Emmett JohnsonKC vs DEN · 8 car, 24 yds · 2-44 rec+3.9
- 7
Breece HallNYJ vs TEN · 22 car, 102 yds, 1 TD · 2-16 rec+3.6
- 8
Bucky IrvingTB vs CIN · 8 car, 45 yds, 1 TD · 7-48 rec+3.3
- 1
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CAR · QB37.3
- 2
Josh AllenBUF vs HOU · QB35.7
- 3
Derrick HenryBAL vs IND · RB34.3
- 4
Bryce YoungCAR vs CHI · QB31.4
- 5
D'Andre SwiftCHI vs CAR · RB31.4
- 6
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN · RB31.1
- 7
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO · RB28.6
- 8
Christian WatsonGB vs MIN · WR26.7
- 9
Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA · RB26.7
- 10
Jaxson DartNYG vs DAL · QB26.6
- 11
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE · QB26.1
- 12
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUF · RB25.9
- 13
Jalen CokerCAR vs CHI · WR25.8
- 14
Lamar JacksonBAL vs IND · QB25.0
- 15
Jalen HurtsPHI vs WAS · QB24.7
- 16
Bijan RobinsonATL vs PIT · RB23.3
- 1
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CAR · QB37.3
- 2
Josh AllenBUF vs HOU · QB35.7
- 3
Derrick HenryBAL vs IND · RB34.8
- 4
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN · RB32.6
- 5
D'Andre SwiftCHI vs CAR · RB31.9
- 6
Bryce YoungCAR vs CHI · QB31.4
- 7
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO · RB31.1
- 8
Jalen CokerCAR vs CHI · WR29.8
- 9
Christian WatsonGB vs MIN · WR29.7
- 10
Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA · RB29.7
- 11
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUF · RB27.4
- 12
Bijan RobinsonATL vs PIT · RB27.3
- 13
Justin JeffersonMIN vs GB · WR27.2
- 14
Jaxson DartNYG vs DAL · QB26.6
- 15
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE · QB26.1
- 16
Lamar JacksonBAL vs IND · QB25.0
- 1
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CAR · QB37.3
- 2
Josh AllenBUF vs HOU · QB35.7
- 3
Derrick HenryBAL vs IND · RB35.3
- 4
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN · RB34.1
- 5
Jalen CokerCAR vs CHI · WR33.8
- 6
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO · RB33.6
- 7
Christian WatsonGB vs MIN · WR32.7
- 8
Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA · RB32.7
- 9
D'Andre SwiftCHI vs CAR · RB32.4
- 10
Bryce YoungCAR vs CHI · QB31.4
- 11
Bijan RobinsonATL vs PIT · RB31.3
- 12
Justin JeffersonMIN vs GB · WR31.2
- 13
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUF · RB28.9
- 14
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NO · WR28.7
- 15
Chris OlaveNO vs DET · WR28.2
- 16
Isaiah LikelyNYG vs DAL · TE27.8
- 1
Chris OlaveNO vs DET · 10/13, 182 yds+13.7
- 2
Zay FlowersBAL vs IND · 5/6, 150 yds, 1 TD+13.1
- 3
Jalen CokerCAR vs CHI · 8/9, 138 yds, 2 TD+12.5
- 4
Justin JeffersonMIN vs GB · 8/9, 92 yds, 2 TD+12.5
- 5
Parker WashingtonJAX vs CLE · 5/6, 83 yds, 1 TD+8.8
- 6
Antonio WilliamsWAS vs PHI · 4/4, 64 yds, 1 TD+8.8
- 7
Mike EvansSF vs LA · 6/7, 49 yds, 1 TD+8.2
- 8
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs NE · 8/11, 122 yds, 1 TD+7.7
- 1
Isaiah LikelyNYG vs DAL · 8/8, 78 yds, 2 TD+11.0
- 2
Dallas GoedertPHI vs WAS · 4/5, 77 yds, 2 TD+8.3
- 3
Dalton KincaidBUF vs HOU · 5/6, 130 yds+7.6
- 4
Mike GesickiCIN vs TB · 5/7, 78 yds, 1 TD+6.9
- 5
Travis KelceKC vs DEN · 3/5, 71 yds+5.0
- 6
Jonnu SmithGB vs MIN · 2/3, 50 yds+4.0
- 7
Evan EngramDEN vs KC · 4/5, 43 yds, 1 TD+4.0
- 8
Trey McBrideARI vs LAC · 9/13, 95 yds, 1 TD+3.8
Moverswhose role broke from his own season
Week 1: 423 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.
Snap sharepoints of the snaps
Nobody moved far on this board.
Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded
Nobody moved far on this board.
EPAthe week against his per-game average
Nobody moved far on this board.
Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.