2026
Week 1 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Broncos offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 7 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 31–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 12:53, 15 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 12:53KCJ.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.77% → 92%
- 2Q1 3:53DENB.Nix pass deep left to E.Engram for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33% → 42%
- 3Q1 8:20KCP.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.67% → 75%
- 4Q2 1:46KCP.Mahomes pass short right to R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.72% → 79%
- 5Q1 13:39KCB.Nix pass deep middle intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by M.Delane at KC 49. M.Delane to DEN 46 for 5 yards (C.Sutton).59% → 66%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Engram led the Broncos at +4.1 EPA (4 catches for 43). K.III led the Chiefs at +10.7 EPA (23 carries for 173).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 17/28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins43% | 8 | 53% | 36 | -1.1 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 20% | 2 | -1.3 | |
| R.Harvey51% | 3 | 20% | 18 | +1.2 | |
| T.Franklin33% | 1 | 7% | 5 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Bryant59% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 42 | +2.0 | |
| E.Engram63% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 43 | 1 | +4.1 |
| C.Sutton76% | 5 | 19% | 2 | 11 | -4.8 | |
| R.Harvey51% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 23 | -0.1 | |
| A.Trautman37% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 10 | -0.7 | |
| J.Waddle75% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 2 | -4.3 | |
| T.Franklin33% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
Defense Z.Allen 2 sacks, B.Jones 1 INT · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 31)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 15/27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III68% | 23 | 61% | 173 | 1 | +10.1 |
| E.Johnson36% | 8 | 21% | 24 | -0.5 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 7 | 18% | 23 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III68% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 18 | 1 | +0.6 |
| X.Worthy77% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 18 | -8.5 | |
| T.Kelce71% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 71 | +5.0 | |
| R.Rice83% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | 1 | +2.1 |
| E.Johnson36% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 44 | +4.3 | |
| N.Gray55% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.4 | |
| T.Thornton68% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Briningstool19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| C.Allen1% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense M.Delane 1 INT, F.Anudike-Uzomah 1 sack, N.Williams 1 sack, R.Thomas 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (6th). Chiefs get home on 4% (31st). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Chiefs are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.62 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Chiefs give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 147. Broncos' wide receivers produce 107 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Broncos average -0.03 EPA per play (21st). Chiefs allow -0.04 (10th). League average is +0.00.
The Chiefs lead the series 31–25 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Broncos won 28–24. Bo Nix started at quarterback for the Broncos and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs; Sean Payton and Andy Reid coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | KC 24 at DEN 28 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | DEN 10 at KC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DEN 20 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | KC 19 at DEN 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | KC 0 at DEN 38 |
2026 records
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 5–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Conference | 3–1 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Home | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 21.5 – 20.6 | 23.9 – 18.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | -0.04#10 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 8%#9 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.01#12 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 4%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#14 | -0.13#9 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 3.4#2 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 40%#15 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 42%#4 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 121#3 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 66#25 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 10.0#31 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 42#26 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.