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Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

2026 season · Sep 17 to Sep 21 · 16 games

Week 2 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved. Read the Week 2 write-up

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Browns beat the Buccaneers 23–19 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Saints were down to 5% against the Ravens and won 24–17.
  • WildestColts at Chiefs: the lead changed hands 5 times and it went to overtime; the Chiefs won 33–30, and the biggest swing was 19 points at Q3 10:38.
  • Best offenseThe 49ers: +0.46 EPA a play against the Dolphins, +0.32 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Panthers held the Falcons to −0.47 EPA a play, −0.59 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerBrock Purdy (SF QB): +26.4 EPA, 20/22, 287 yds, 2 TD · 3-30 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 2
Games final16 of 16
Overtime2
Comebacks5
Upsets5
Points647
Biggest swing39 pts
DETLions31BUFBills41
Biggest swing 6 pts · Q1 3:49
Led all the way
CARPanthers34ATLFalcons3
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 15:00
Led all the way
NOSaints24BALRavens17
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q4 2:03
Upset · 26% at kickoffComeback from 5%
MINVikings9CHIBears3
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 6:26
Upset · 32% at kickoff
CINBengals20HOUTexans6
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q2 3:37
Upset · 42% at kickoff
PITSteelers3NEPatriots20
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q1 11:32
Led all the way
GBPackers20NYJJets17
Biggest swing 30 pts · Q4 1:20
Comeback from 13%Overtime
CLEBrowns23TBBuccaneers19
Biggest swing 39 pts · Q4 0:22
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 8%
PHIEagles24TENTitans20
Biggest swing 28 pts · Q4 0:14
JAXJaguars13DENBroncos20
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 2:15
Comeback from 16%
LVRaiders26LACChargers14
Biggest swing 33 pts · Q4 3:52
Upset · 29% at kickoffComeback from 22%
SEASeahawks31ARICardinals7
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 12:38
Led all the way
WASCommanders20DALCowboys37
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q2 0:03
Led all the way
MIADolphins13SF49ers35
Biggest swing 5 pts · Q1 14:40
Led all the way
INDColts30KCChiefs33
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q3 10:38
Overtime
NYGGiants6LARams28
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q1 0:19
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1CLEBrowns · Q4 0:22 · CLE at TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.+3957% → 96%
  2. 2LVRaiders · Q4 3:52 · LV at LACO.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-J.Chinn at LV 41. J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (J.Herbert).+3352% → 85%
  3. 3GBPackers · Q4 1:20 · GB at NYJB.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (L.Van Ness).+3045% → 75%
  4. 4CLEBrowns · Q4 3:57 · CLE at TBD.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2839% → 67%
  5. 5PHIEagles · Q4 0:14 · PHI at TENJ.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2866% → 94%
  6. 6GBPackers · Q4 4:49 · GB at NYJA.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18 S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (A.Smith).+2736% → 63%
  7. 7TENTitans · Q4 2:44 · PHI at TENT.Spears left end pushed ob at PHI 9 for 27 yards (J.Hunt). PHI-J.Hunt was injured during the play.+2547% → 72%
  8. 8MINVikings · Q4 6:26 · MIN at CHIC.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12.+2444% → 68%
  9. 9TENTitans · Q1 6:11 · PHI at TENJ.Hurts pass short right intended for D.Smith INTERCEPTED by A.Hooker at TEN -2. A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (M.Lemon).+2315% → 38%
  10. 10MINVikings · Q3 9:42 · MIN at CHID.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (J.Redmond; I.Pace). FUMBLES (J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-C.Kmet was injured…+2228% → 50%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1MIADolphins · Q4 2:41 · vs SF · Ryan MillerM.Willis pass deep right to R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+7.0EPA
  2. 2SEASeahawks · Q1 12:38 · vs ARI · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaD.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.9EPA
  3. 3BUFBills · Q1 3:49 · vs DET · Josh PalmerJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard].+5.5EPA
  4. 4LARams · Q2 12:50 · vs NYG · Davante AdamsM.Stafford pass deep right to D.Adams to NYG 14 for 64 yards.+5.4EPA
  5. 5CLEBrowns · Q3 1:33 · vs TB · Denzel BostonD.Watson pass short middle to D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.2EPA
  6. 6KCChiefs · Q3 10:38 · vs IND · Tyquan ThorntonP.Mahomes pass deep right to T.Thornton to IND 1 for 45 yards.+5.1EPA
  7. 7LACChargers · Q3 11:14 · vs LV · Tre HarrisJ.Herbert pass deep left to T.Harris pushed ob at LV 5 for 53 yards.+4.6EPA
  8. 8NYJJets · Q3 0:04 · vs GB · Breece HallG.Smith pass short right to B.Hall to GB 40 for 43 yards.+4.4EPA
  9. 9DETLions · Q3 11:40 · vs BUF · Sam LaPortaJ.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards.+4.3EPA
  10. 10CARPanthers · Q2 0:48 · vs ATL · Xavier LegetteB.Young pass deep middle to X.Legette to ATL 10 for 55 yards.+4.2EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1SF49ersvs MIA · W 35–13+0.46+0.32 vs usual
2BUFBillsvs DET · W 41–31+0.44+0.31 vs usual
3LARamsvs NYG · W 28–6+0.29+0.27 vs usual
4DETLionsat BUF · L 31–41+0.23+0.14 vs usual
5KCChiefsvs IND · W 33–30+0.23+0.13 vs usual
6DALCowboysvs WAS · W 37–20+0.23+0.15 vs usual
7INDColtsat KC · L 30–33+0.16+0.31 vs usual
8NOSaintsat BAL · W 24–17+0.15+0.22 vs usual
9CARPanthersat ATL · W 34–3+0.14+0.13 vs usual
10SEASeahawksat ARI · W 31–7+0.13+0.21 vs usual
11DENBroncosvs JAX · W 20–13+0.12+0.17 vs usual
12BALRavensvs NO · L 17–24+0.12+0.11 vs usual
13TENTitansvs PHI · L 20–24+0.08+0.18 vs usual
14WASCommandersat DAL · L 20–37+0.07+0.09 vs usual
15PHIEaglesat TEN · W 24–20+0.04+0.20 vs usual
16CLEBrownsat TB · W 23–19+0.01+0.10 vs usual
17MIADolphinsat SF · L 13–35−0.00+0.05 vs usual
18JAXJaguarsat DEN · L 13–20−0.05−0.24 vs usual
19NEPatriotsvs PIT · W 20–3−0.07−0.15 vs usual
20MINVikingsat CHI · W 9–3−0.08+0.02 vs usual
21CINBengalsat HOU · W 20–6−0.09−0.24 vs usual
22LVRaidersat LAC · W 26–14−0.10−0.13 vs usual
23NYJJetsvs GB · L 17–20−0.11−0.18 vs usual
24CHIBearsvs MIN · L 3–9−0.13−0.20 vs usual
25TBBuccaneersvs CLE · L 19–23−0.15−0.06 vs usual
26GBPackersat NYJ · W 20–17−0.22−0.25 vs usual
27HOUTexansvs CIN · L 6–20−0.25−0.33 vs usual
28LACChargersvs LV · L 14–26−0.26−0.01 vs usual
29ARICardinalsvs SEA · L 7–31−0.33−0.33 vs usual
30PITSteelersat NE · L 3–20−0.36−0.38 vs usual
31NYGGiantsat LA · L 6–28−0.43−0.50 vs usual
32ATLFalconsvs CAR · L 3–34−0.47−0.44 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 113Brock PurdySF vs MIA · 20/22, 287 yds, 2 TD · 3-30 rush+26.4
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs DET · 20/31, 248 yds, 3 TD · 14-69 rush+20.8
  3. 34Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · 26/31, 279 yds, 4 TD · 4-26 rush+17.0
  4. 416Jared GoffDET vs BUF · 26/38, 327 yds, 4 TD · 3-7 rush+16.4
  5. 52Drew LockSEA vs ARI · 19/26, 235 yds, 3 TD+16.1
  6. 615Patrick MahomesKC vs IND · 32/47, 382 yds, 3 TD+13.9
  7. 79Matthew StaffordLA vs NYG · 22/31, 327 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 4--1 rush+13.6
  8. 86Tyler ShoughNO vs BAL · 27/34, 252 yds, 1 TD · 9-23 rush+12.6
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 128Jonathan TaylorIND vs KC · 24 car, 92 yds, 2 TD · 4-40 rec+6.4
  2. 223Christian McCaffreySF vs MIA · 10 car, 23 yds, 2 TD · 4-43 rec+4.9
  3. 330Chuba HubbardCAR vs ATL · 12 car, 53 yds · 2-11 rec+4.8
  4. 41Rachaad WhiteWAS vs DAL · 7 car, 43 yds · 6-40 rec+4.5
  5. 54James CookBUF vs DET · 21 car, 135 yds, 1 TD · 1-4 rec+3.9
  6. 644Kyle JuszczykSF vs MIA · 0 car, 0 yds · 2-27 rec+3.6
  7. 724Blake CorumLA vs NYG · 12 car, 79 yds · 1-13 rec+3.6
  8. 80Jahmyr GibbsDET vs BUF · 16 car, 52 yds · 6-61 rec+3.5
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs DET · QB40.8
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ARI · WR33.5
  3. 317Davante AdamsLA vs NYG · WR31.5
  4. 44Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB29.8
  5. 516Jared GoffDET vs BUF · QB29.8
  6. 615Patrick MahomesKC vs IND · QB29.0
  7. 713Brock PurdySF vs MIA · QB28.5
  8. 888CeeDee LambDAL vs WAS · WR27.3
  9. 99Matthew StaffordLA vs NYG · QB27.0
  10. 1014Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs BUF · WR26.2
  11. 1128Jonathan TaylorIND vs KC · RB25.2
  12. 129Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB24.1
  13. 136Tyler ShoughNO vs BAL · QB22.4
  14. 142Drew LockSEA vs ARI · QB21.4
  15. 158Kirk CousinsLV vs LAC · QB20.2
  16. 161Cam WardTEN vs PHI · QB20.0
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs DET · QB40.8
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ARI · WR38.0
  3. 317Davante AdamsLA vs NYG · WR35.5
  4. 488CeeDee LambDAL vs WAS · WR31.3
  5. 514Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs BUF · WR30.7
  6. 64Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB29.8
  7. 716Jared GoffDET vs BUF · QB29.8
  8. 815Patrick MahomesKC vs IND · QB29.0
  9. 913Brock PurdySF vs MIA · QB28.5
  10. 1028Jonathan TaylorIND vs KC · RB27.2
  11. 119Matthew StaffordLA vs NYG · QB27.0
  12. 129Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB24.1
  13. 131Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs HOU · WR23.0
  14. 146DeVonta SmithPHI vs TEN · WR22.7
  15. 156Tyler ShoughNO vs BAL · QB22.4
  16. 162Drew LockSEA vs ARI · QB21.4
  1. 111Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ARI · WR42.5
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs DET · QB40.8
  3. 317Davante AdamsLA vs NYG · WR39.5
  4. 488CeeDee LambDAL vs WAS · WR35.3
  5. 514Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs BUF · WR35.2
  6. 64Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB29.8
  7. 716Jared GoffDET vs BUF · QB29.8
  8. 828Jonathan TaylorIND vs KC · RB29.2
  9. 915Patrick MahomesKC vs IND · QB29.0
  10. 1013Brock PurdySF vs MIA · QB28.5
  11. 116DeVonta SmithPHI vs TEN · WR27.7
  12. 129Matthew StaffordLA vs NYG · QB27.0
  13. 131Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs HOU · WR26.5
  14. 1486Dalton SchultzHOU vs CIN · TE26.0
  15. 1587Travis KelceKC vs IND · TE25.1
  16. 169Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB24.1
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 111Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs ARI · 9/11, 155 yds, 3 TD+17.9
  2. 217Davante AdamsLA vs NYG · 8/10, 195 yds, 2 TD+11.8
  3. 388CeeDee LambDAL vs WAS · 8/9, 153 yds, 2 TD+11.4
  4. 413Dontayvion WicksPHI vs TEN · 5/6, 74 yds+11.1
  5. 514Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs BUF · 9/13, 142 yds, 2 TD+10.7
  6. 617Jaylen WaddleDEN vs JAX · 8/10, 138 yds+8.8
  7. 72Josh DownsIND vs KC · 7/9, 72 yds+8.2
  8. 82Tyquan ThorntonKC vs IND · 4/4, 86 yds+8.2
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 186Dalton SchultzHOU vs CIN · 12/14, 140 yds+7.5
  2. 286Dalton KincaidBUF vs DET · 7/8, 95 yds, 1 TD+7.2
  3. 383Juwan JohnsonNO vs BAL · 4/4, 66 yds+7.0
  4. 487Jake FergusonDAL vs WAS · 4/4, 43 yds, 2 TD+6.5
  5. 585George KittleSF vs MIA · 4/4, 80 yds, 1 TD+5.8
  6. 687Sam LaPortaDET vs BUF · 6/7, 52 yds, 1 TD+5.7
  7. 788Darren WallerCAR vs ATL · 3/3, 33 yds, 2 TD+5.6
  8. 885Trey McBrideARI vs SEA · 8/10, 41 yds, 1 TD+5.1

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 2 · against his own season423 played

Week 2: 423 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

Nobody moved far on this board.

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

Nobody moved far on this board.

EPAthe week against his per-game average

Nobody moved far on this board.

New faces18Jack StrandATL · QB · debut, 42% of the snaps81Devontez WalkerBAL · WR · debut, 29% of the snaps10LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR · first start-level week, 53% of the snaps28Tyler BadieDEN · RB · debut, 26% of the snaps13Jaylin NoelHOU · WR · first start-level week, 60% of the snaps4Konata MumpfieldLA · WR · first start-level week, 69% of the snaps4Myles PriceMIN · WR · first start-level week, 50% of the snaps32TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB · debut, 60% of the snaps41Alvin KamaraNO · RB · debut, 29% of the snaps19Jameis WinstonNYG · QB · debut, 88% of the snaps28Will ShipleyPHI · RB · first start-level week, 51% of the snaps17Germie BernardPIT · WR · first start-level week, 79% of the snaps15Tory HortonSEA · WR · debut, 31% of the snaps89Nick KallerupSEA · TE · debut, 27% of the snaps9Brayden WillisSF · TE · debut, 25% of the snaps8Marcus MariotaWAS · QB · debut, 45% of the snaps13Treylon BurksWAS · WR · debut, 30% of the snaps82Ben SinnottWAS · TE · first start-level week, 68% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.