2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 8 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 20–17 from as low as 13% (Q4 12:27, down 14–7). Tied 17–17 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 5:26: T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:20, 30 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:20NYJB.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (L.Van Ness).45% → 75%
- 2Q4 4:49NYJA.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18 S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (A.Smith).36% → 63%
- 3Q3 0:04NYJG.Smith pass short right to B.Hall to GB 40 for 43 yards (K.Nixon).69% → 82%
- 4Q4 0:21GBPENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. 10-second runoff.35% → 46%
- 5Q4 3:09GBJ.Love pass incomplete short right to C.Watson.44% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Golden led the Packers at +1.3 EPA (4 catches for 58). A.Mitchell led the Jets at +5.6 EPA (6 catches for 63).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 16/29 | 145 | 2 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Johnson27% | 8 | 44% | 32 | -1.6 | |
| M.Lloyd27% | 6 | 33% | 20 | -5.3 | |
| C.Brooks46% | 4 | 22% | 11 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson90% | 11 | 38% | 4 | 41 | 1 | -3.8 |
| M.Golden86% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 58 | +1.3 | |
| S.Moore36% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| T.Kraft98% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 15 | -0.2 | |
| C.Brooks46% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 15 | +1.8 | |
| M.Lloyd27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | 1 | +1.5 |
| B.Melton15% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Reed3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense L.Ness 1.5 sacks, E.Cooper 1 sack, B.Sorrell 0.5 sacks, D.Dennis-Sutton 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Smack 2/2 FG, 2/2 XP, 8 pts
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 27/41 | 247 | 1 | 4 | +4.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall65% | 16 | 59% | 29 | -7.0 | |
| G.Smith100% | 5 | 19% | 17 | -2.9 | |
| B.Allen31% | 5 | 19% | 7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| I.Williams82% | 1 | 4% | 14 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell82% | 12 | 33% | 6 | 63 | +5.6 | |
| G.Wilson88% | 7 | 19% | 5 | 57 | 1 | +2.7 |
| I.Williams82% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 34 | -0.1 | |
| B.Hall65% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 63 | +5.1 | |
| K.Sadiq36% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 17 | -0.5 | |
| J.Ruckert34% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 5 | -0.9 | |
| B.Allen31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.0 |
Defense K.Enagbare 1 sack, J.Briggs 1 sack, D.Bailey 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 1/1 FG, 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.12 EPA per dropback (11th). Jets allow +0.12 (25th).
Deep left is open
Jets are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.53 EPA per attempt. Packers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Packers' run game is 32nd in EPA per carry (-0.24). Jets allow -0.14 (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Packers succeed on 40% of plays (27th) against a defense that allows 45% (24th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 · OT | GB 20 at NYJ 17 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | NYJ 27 at GB 10 |
| 2018 · Wk 16 · OT | GB 44 at NYJ 38 |
| 2014 · Wk 2 | NYJ 24 at GB 31 |
| 2010 · Wk 8 | GB 9 at NYJ 0 |
2026 records
| Packers | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–3 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 20.5 | 21.3 – 23.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.00#17 | +0.02#19 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#27 | 45%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#16 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 9%#11 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.12#11 | +0.12#25 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#7 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.24#32 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.1#32 | 3.9#15 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#23 | 41%#16 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 54%#23 | 64%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 193#3 | 121#5 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 59#15 | 60#24 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#16 | 7.8#17 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#20 | 27#11 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.