2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Vikings offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Vikings, 8 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 9–3; their low point was 28% at Q1 3:03. The Bears had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 6:26: C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12 (44% → 69%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:26CHIC.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12.turning point44% → 69%
- 2Q3 9:42CHID.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (J.Redmond; I.Pace). FUMBLES (J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-C.Kmet was injured…28% → 51%
- 3Q4 0:01CHIT.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (D.Turner).82% → 100%
- 4Q4 0:38CHIT.Bagent pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (I.Rodgers).17% → 33%
- 5Q4 11:42CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to MIN 32 for 32 yards (E.Wilson).42% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +3.3 EPA (3 catches for 29). K.Raymond led the Bears at +5.2 EPA (5 catches for 40).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz100% | 11/20 | 143 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones81% | 23 | 82% | 105 | -2.4 | |
| C.Wentz100% | 3 | 11% | 6 | -2.2 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 2 | 7% | 8 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 6 | 32% | 3 | 55 | +1.5 | |
| J.Addison88% | 5 | 26% | 2 | 21 | -0.6 | |
| T.Hockenson69% | 4 | 21% | 3 | 29 | +3.3 | |
| J.Oliver60% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 24 | +1.6 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.4 | |
| M.Price50% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| D.Claiborne4% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Turner 2 sacks, B.Murphy 1 INT, A.Ginkel 1 sack, B.Cashman 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG, 9 pts
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams86% | 15/26 | 138 | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| T.Bagent14% | 5/9 | 54 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift68% | 16 | 52% | 45 | -8.9 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 10 | 32% | 47 | +1.0 | |
| C.Williams86% | 5 | 16% | 42 | +3.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.III57% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 32 | -3.6 | |
| K.Raymond62% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 40 | +5.2 | |
| D.Swift68% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 54 | +4.6 | |
| R.Odunze84% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 43 | +1.6 | |
| C.Loveland86% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| S.Roush27% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 11 | -0.7 | |
| C.Kmet69% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense D.Odeyingbo 1 sack, A.Booker 1 sack, M.Muhammad 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (23 blocked), 3 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bears give up 52 yards a game to tight ends (14th), against a league average of 55. Vikings' tight ends produce 61 (13th).
Deep left is open
Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.65 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 11% of their throws there.
Pressure problem
Vikings take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Bears get home on 9% (2nd). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Vikings gain 4.9 yards per play (24th). Bears give up 6.1 (29th), with the league at 5.4.
The Vikings lead the series 29–26 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at CHI 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CHI 19 at MIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIN 27 at CHI 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | CHI 12 at MIN 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 · OT | MIN 30 at CHI 27 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 6–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 26.8 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#28 | -0.03#12 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#24 | 6.1#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#15 | 10%#24 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.08#24 | -0.03#10 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 9%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#28 | -0.09#12 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#21 | 4.1#19 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 24%#1 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#16 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 105#30 | 150#19 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#13 | 52#14 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#14 | 6.4#7 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#28 | 33#18 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.