2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 7 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 9–3; their low point was 28% at Q1 3:03. The Bears had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 6:26: C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12 (44% → 69%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:26CHIC.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12.turning point44% → 69%
- 2Q3 9:42CHID.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (J.Redmond; I.Pace). FUMBLES (J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-C.Kmet was injured…28% → 51%
- 3Q4 0:01CHIT.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (D.Turner).82% → 100%
- 4Q4 0:38CHIT.Bagent pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (I.Rodgers).17% → 33%
- 5Q4 11:42CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to MIN 32 for 32 yards (E.Wilson).42% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +3.3 EPA (3 catches for 29). K.Raymond led the Bears at +5.2 EPA (5 catches for 40).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz100% | 11/20 | 143 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones81% | 23 | 82% | 105 | -2.4 | |
| C.Wentz100% | 3 | 11% | 6 | -2.2 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 2 | 7% | 8 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 6 | 32% | 3 | 55 | +1.5 | |
| J.Addison88% | 5 | 26% | 2 | 21 | -0.6 | |
| T.Hockenson69% | 4 | 21% | 3 | 29 | +3.3 | |
| J.Oliver60% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 24 | +1.6 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.4 | |
| M.Price50% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| D.Claiborne4% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Turner 2 sacks, B.Murphy 1 INT, A.Ginkel 1 sack, B.Cashman 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG, 9 pts
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams86% | 15/26 | 138 | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| T.Bagent14% | 5/9 | 54 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift68% | 16 | 52% | 45 | -8.9 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 10 | 32% | 47 | +1.0 | |
| C.Williams86% | 5 | 16% | 42 | +3.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.III57% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 32 | -3.6 | |
| K.Raymond62% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 40 | +5.2 | |
| D.Swift68% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 54 | +4.6 | |
| R.Odunze84% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 43 | +1.6 | |
| C.Loveland86% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| S.Roush27% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 11 | -0.7 | |
| C.Kmet69% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense D.Odeyingbo 1 sack, A.Booker 1 sack, M.Muhammad 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (23 blocked), 3 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Bears average 4.3 yards per carry (11th). Vikings allow 4.5 (25th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Bears score a touchdown on 59% of red zone trips (18th). Vikings allow 27% (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bears create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (10th). Vikings give them up at 9% (14th).
The Vikings lead the series 29–26 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at CHI 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CHI 19 at MIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIN 27 at CHI 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | CHI 12 at MIN 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 · OT | MIN 30 at CHI 27 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 6–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 26.8 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | -0.17#1 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 9%#14 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | -0.24#1 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#17 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#11 | -0.11#9 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 4.5#25 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 31%#2 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#18 | 27%#1 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 166#8 | 123#6 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#18 | 39#4 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 6.3#6 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#11 | 18#3 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.