2026
Week 2 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Jaguars offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Jaguars, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 20–13 from as low as 16% (Q3 10:30, down 10–3). The game turned for good at Q4 9:45: C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left (50% → 62%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:15, 15 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:15JAXB.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.48% → 63%
- 2Q2 10:04DENB.Nix pass deep middle to J.Waddle to JAX 1 for 49 yards (M.Brown).38% → 52%
- 3Q4 11:11JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (T.Hufanga).49% → 61%
- 4Q4 9:45DENC.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Leftturning point50% → 62%
- 5Q4 7:30DENB.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton. PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.…69% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Meyers led the Jaguars at +3.1 EPA (1 catches for 28). J.Waddle led the Broncos at +8.8 EPA (8 catches for 138).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 17/29 | 189 | 1 | 2 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten51% | 13 | 54% | 65 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Jr.22% | 6 | 25% | 13 | -0.7 | |
| A.Abdullah10% | 3 | 13% | 11 | +0.6 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 2 | 8% | 6 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington81% | 12 | 43% | 7 | 98 | -0.4 | |
| B.Jr.54% | 8 | 29% | 3 | 40 | -1.2 | |
| B.Strange83% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +2.0 | |
| B.Tuten51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -3 | -1.9 | |
| A.Abdullah10% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| J.Meyers90% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +3.1 | |
| Q.Morris22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| L.Jr.15% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense J.Lewis 1 INT · Kicking C.Little 2/3 FG (long 44)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 22/31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | +8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins34% | 10 | 36% | 36 | -3.2 | |
| J.Coleman40% | 10 | 36% | 39 | 1 | -0.2 |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 18% | 6 | -2.1 | |
| T.Badie26% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 | |
| N.Adkins37% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.3 | |
| P.Bryant66% | 1 | 4% | 16 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle61% | 10 | 34% | 8 | 138 | +8.8 | |
| C.Sutton73% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 25 | -2.5 | |
| T.Badie26% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 28 | +0.0 | |
| N.Adkins37% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +3.7 |
| J.Coleman40% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 19 | +0.3 | |
| T.Franklin21% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 27 | +1.6 | |
| E.Engram52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.0 | |
| L.Humphrey5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| A.Prentice13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| P.Bryant66% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense R.Moss 1 INT, M.Roach 1 sack, Q.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Jaguars' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.03). Broncos allow -0.02 (26th).
Short middle is open
Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 19% of their throws there.
Wideouts get blanketed
Broncos give up 131 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 147. Jaguars' wide receivers produce 150 (14th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jaguars succeed on 48% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 40% (6th).
The Jaguars lead the series 7–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | JAX 13 at DEN 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | JAX 34 at DEN 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 8 | DEN 21 at JAX 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | DEN 23 at JAX 13 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | JAX 26 at DEN 24 |
2026 records
| Jaguars | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Home | 4–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.0 – 15.9 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.16#3 | -0.03#12 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#7 | 40%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.2#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#4 | 9%#15 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.28#1 | -0.06#6 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.03#3 | -0.02#26 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#10 | 4.4#22 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 49%#4 | 43%#22 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#7 | 48%#8 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#14 | 131#9 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#11 | 68#26 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.7#23 | 8.8#27 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#16 | 48#31 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.