2026
Week 2 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 7 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 20–13 from as low as 16% (Q3 10:30, down 10–3). The game turned for good at Q4 9:45: C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left (50% → 62%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:15, 15 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:15JAXB.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.48% → 63%
- 2Q2 10:04DENB.Nix pass deep middle to J.Waddle to JAX 1 for 49 yards (M.Brown).38% → 52%
- 3Q4 11:11JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (T.Hufanga).49% → 61%
- 4Q4 9:45DENC.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Leftturning point50% → 62%
- 5Q4 7:30DENB.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton. PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.…69% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Meyers led the Jaguars at +3.1 EPA (1 catches for 28). J.Waddle led the Broncos at +8.8 EPA (8 catches for 138).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 17/29 | 189 | 1 | 2 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten51% | 13 | 54% | 65 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Jr.22% | 6 | 25% | 13 | -0.7 | |
| A.Abdullah10% | 3 | 13% | 11 | +0.6 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 2 | 8% | 6 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington81% | 12 | 43% | 7 | 98 | -0.4 | |
| B.Jr.54% | 8 | 29% | 3 | 40 | -1.2 | |
| B.Strange83% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +2.0 | |
| B.Tuten51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -3 | -1.9 | |
| A.Abdullah10% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| J.Meyers90% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +3.1 | |
| Q.Morris22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| L.Jr.15% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense J.Lewis 1 INT · Kicking C.Little 2/3 FG (long 44)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 22/31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | +8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins34% | 10 | 36% | 36 | -3.2 | |
| J.Coleman40% | 10 | 36% | 39 | 1 | -0.2 |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 18% | 6 | -2.1 | |
| T.Badie26% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 | |
| N.Adkins37% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.3 | |
| P.Bryant66% | 1 | 4% | 16 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle61% | 10 | 34% | 8 | 138 | +8.8 | |
| C.Sutton73% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 25 | -2.5 | |
| T.Badie26% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 28 | +0.0 | |
| N.Adkins37% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +3.7 |
| J.Coleman40% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 19 | +0.3 | |
| T.Franklin21% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 27 | +1.6 | |
| E.Engram52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.0 | |
| L.Humphrey5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| A.Prentice13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| P.Bryant66% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense R.Moss 1 INT, M.Roach 1 sack, Q.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Jaguars give up 36 yards a game to running backs (23rd), against a league average of 32. Broncos' running backs produce 53 (3rd).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.87 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Jaguars give up 32 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 55. Broncos' tight ends produce 28 (31st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Broncos gain 4.9 yards per play (26th). Jaguars give up 5.6 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Jaguars lead the series 7–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | JAX 13 at DEN 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | JAX 34 at DEN 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 8 | DEN 21 at JAX 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | DEN 23 at JAX 13 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | JAX 26 at DEN 24 |
2026 records
| Jaguars | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Home | 4–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.0 – 15.9 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | -0.10#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 5.6#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 8%#6 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.06#7 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#14 | -0.19#1 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 3.4#4 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 37%#9 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 45%#6 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 196#31 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 32#1 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 6.7#10 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 36#23 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.