2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Steelers, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 20–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 66%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:32, 11 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:32PITD.Maye pass short left to R.Stevenson to PIT 31 for 3 yards (N.Herbig). FUMBLES (N.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-P.Wilson at PIT 31. PENALTY on…24% → 34%
- 2Q3 12:59PITD.Maye pass deep left intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by P.Queen at PIT 10. P.Queen to PIT 13 for 3 yards (H.Henry).11% → 19%
- 3Q1 8:29NET.Henderson left guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 81%
- 4Q4 13:46NEA.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (C.Barmore). FUMBLES (C.Barmore) [C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-E.Ponder at PIT 19. E.Ponder for 19 yards,…91% → 98%
- 5Q2 8:05NEA.Rodgers sacked at NE 31 for -9 yards (C.Elliss). FUMBLES (C.Elliss) [C.Elliss], touched at NE 30, recovered by PIT-T.Fautanu at PIT 42.84% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Freiermuth led the Steelers at +1.8 EPA (4 catches for 32). R.Doubs led the Patriots at +5.6 EPA (3 catches for 96).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers96% | 23/39 | 187 | 1 | 4 | -21.4 | |
| M.Rudolph4% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren71% | 11 | 48% | 43 | -2.2 | |
| R.Dowdle26% | 7 | 30% | 22 | -2.4 | |
| T.Homer3% | 2 | 9% | 16 | +0.9 | |
| A.Rodgers96% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.2 | |
| M.Rudolph4% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.7 | |
| P.Freiermuth66% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf97% | 9 | 24% | 4 | 27 | -3.2 | |
| G.Bernard79% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 35 | -3.7 | |
| R.Wilson79% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 28 | +0.4 | |
| P.Freiermuth66% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 32 | -0.3 | |
| J.Warren71% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 34 | 0.0 | |
| R.Dowdle26% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 22 | +1.4 | |
| D.Washington53% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -0.1 | |
| B.Skowronek21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense T.Watt 1.5 sacks, P.Queen 1 INT, A.Highsmith 1 sack, D.Harmon 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Boswell 1/2 FG (long 56)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 14/22 | 208 | 1 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson60% | 16 | 57% | 76 | 1 | -1.6 |
| R.Stevenson36% | 6 | 21% | 43 | +1.8 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 14% | 17 | +1.8 | |
| C.Kiner7% | 2 | 7% | 0 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry91% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 40 | -2.9 | |
| R.Doubs67% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 96 | +5.6 | |
| M.Hollins71% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 18 | +1.1 | |
| R.Gilliam36% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -0.6 | |
| R.Stevenson36% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 3 | -5.0 | |
| D.Douglas47% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| K.Williams20% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 10 | +1.0 | |
| E.III18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -2 | -2.4 | |
| E.Raridon20% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 30 | +2.2 |
Defense G.Jacas 1 INT, C.Elliss 1 sack, C.Barmore 1 sack, J.Farmer 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/3 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Steelers' run game is 1st in EPA per carry (+0.11). Patriots allow -0.09 (14th).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Steelers score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (28th). Patriots allow 57% (12th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Steelers average -0.03 EPA per play (20th). Patriots allow +0.01 (18th). League average is +0.00.
The Patriots lead the series 15–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | PIT 3 at NE 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | PIT 21 at NE 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | NE 21 at PIT 18 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | NE 17 at PIT 14 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | PIT 3 at NE 33 |
2026 records
| Steelers | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Division | 2–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.5 – 18.0 | 23.0 – 20.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#20 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#19 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#18 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.11#26 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.11#1 | -0.09#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#2 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#19 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#28 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 126#25 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#12 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.0#11 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#6 | 31#15 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.