2026
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Saints offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Saints, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Saints won 24–17 from as low as 5% (Q3 1:50, down 17–9). The Ravens had been 74% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 5:41: T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton) (46% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:03, 19 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:03NOT.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at…60% → 79%
- 2Q4 1:32NOT.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling…75% → 91%
- 3Q4 9:47NOT.Shough pass deep middle to C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 29%
- 4Q4 5:41NOT.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton).turning point46% → 56%
- 5Q4 2:48NOT.Shough pass short left to D.Vele to BAL 30 for 6 yards (M.Humphrey).52% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Shough led the Saints at +12.6 EPA (27 of 34 for 252). R.Bateman led the Ravens at +5.6 EPA (7 catches for 88).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough100% | 27/34 | 252 | 1 | 3 | +10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara29% | 9 | 33% | 15 | -3.8 | |
| T.Shough100% | 9 | 33% | 23 | 1 | +1.7 |
| T.Etienne54% | 8 | 30% | 25 | +0.4 | |
| C.Donaldson29% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave84% | 10 | 31% | 8 | 86 | 1 | +6.5 |
| D.Vele96% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 64 | +5.4 | |
| A.Kamara29% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 7 | -3.5 | |
| J.Johnson53% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 66 | +7.0 | |
| T.Etienne54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -0.5 | |
| K.Jr.7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| O.Delp13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| B.Lance79% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 |
Defense J.Blackmon 1 INT, C.Young 1.5 sacks, P.Werner 1 sack, N.Shepherd 0.5 sacks · Kicking D.Carlson 3/3 FG, 1/1 XP, 10 pts
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 21/31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry53% | 16 | 73% | 68 | 1 | +2.9 |
| L.Jackson100% | 4 | 18% | 34 | +0.3 | |
| J.Hill47% | 2 | 9% | 6 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Bateman93% | 9 | 31% | 7 | 88 | 1 | +5.6 |
| M.Andrews71% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 49 | +4.0 | |
| C.Moore55% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 6 | -1.9 | |
| D.Henry53% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 19 | +0.2 | |
| J.Hill47% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 12 | +0.0 | |
| D.Walker29% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 47 | +2.9 | |
| L.Wester53% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| D.Smythe55% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense T.Hendrickson 1 sack, T.Robinson 1 sack, M.Green 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (49 blocked), 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Saints score a touchdown on 74% of red zone trips (2nd). Ravens allow 68% (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Saints send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Saints average 3.2 yards per carry (31st). Ravens allow 3.6 (10th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Saints succeed on 42% of plays (22nd) against a defense that allows 44% (21st).
The Ravens lead the series 5–3 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | NO 24 at BAL 17 |
| 2022 · Wk 9 | BAL 27 at NO 13 |
| 2018 · Wk 7 | NO 24 at BAL 23 |
| 2014 · Wk 12 | BAL 34 at NO 27 |
| 2010 · Wk 15 | NO 24 at BAL 30 |
2026 records
| Saints | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 1–3 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Home | 0–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WWLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 23.1 – 27.7 | 22.4 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#22 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#22 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#29 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.01#19 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.16#26 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.2#31 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 74%#2 | 68%#23 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 162#9 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#20 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.3#10 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 33#13 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.