Ravens offensevsSaints defense

The Saints won 24–17 from as low as 5% (Q3 1:50, down 17⁠–⁠9). The Ravens had been 74% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 5:41: T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton) (46% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:03, 19 points for the Saints.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q4 2:03NOT.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at…60% → 79%+19 NO
2. 2Q4 1:32NOT.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling…75% → 91%+16 NO
3. 3Q4 9:47NOT.Shough pass deep middle to C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 29%+15 NO
4. 4Q4 5:41NOT.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton).turning point46% → 56%+10 NO
5. 5Q4 2:48NOT.Shough pass short left to D.Vele to BAL 30 for 6 yards (M.Humphrey).52% → 60%+8 NO

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.