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2025 season · Sep 11 to Sep 15 · 16 games

Week 2 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Seahawks beat the Steelers 31–17 as a 37% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Colts were down to 11% against the Broncos and won 29–28.
  • WildestGiants at Cowboys: the lead changed hands 6 times and it went to overtime; the Cowboys won 40–37, and the biggest swing was 59 points at Q4 0:33.
  • Best offenseThe Lions: +0.41 EPA a play against the Bears, +0.35 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Falcons held the Vikings to −0.45 EPA a play, −0.47 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerJared Goff (DET QB): +23.6 EPA, 23/28, 334 yds, 5 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 2
Games final16 of 16
Overtime1
Comebacks6
Upsets5
Points797
Biggest swing59 pts
WASCommanders18GBPackers27
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 6:46
Led all the way
CLEBrowns17BALRavens41
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q2 12:12
Led all the way
JAXJaguars27CINBengals31
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q4 0:19
Comeback from 13%
NYGGiants37DALCowboys40
Biggest swing 59 pts · Q4 0:33
Comeback from 19%Overtime
CHIBears21DETLions52
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 8:38
Led all the way
NEPatriots33MIADolphins27
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q4 7:18
Upset · 48% at kickoffComeback from 23%
SF49ers26NOSaints21
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q3 1:44
BUFBills30NYJJets10
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 7:24
Led all the way
SEASeahawks31PITSteelers17
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 12:46
Upset · 37% at kickoffComeback from 15%
LARams33TENTitans19
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q3 3:37
Led all the way
CARPanthers22ARICardinals27
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q4 1:58
Led all the way
DENBroncos28INDColts29
Biggest swing 37 pts · Q4 0:00
Upset · 42% at kickoffComeback from 11%
PHIEagles20KCChiefs17
Biggest swing 29 pts · Q4 13:07
ATLFalcons22MINVikings6
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q4 15:00
Upset · 37% at kickoff
TBBuccaneers20HOUTexans19
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q4 0:09
Upset · 43% at kickoffComeback from 12%
LACChargers20LVRaiders9
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 2:00
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1NYGGiants · Q4 0:33 · NYG at DALR.Wilson pass deep right to M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5914% → 73%
  2. 2NYGGiants · Q4 2:50 · NYG at DALR.Wilson pass deep right to W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3824% → 62%
  3. 3INDColts · Q4 0:00 · DEN at INDS.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD+3763% → 100%
  4. 4INDColts · Q4 0:03 · DEN at INDS.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short PENALTY on DEN-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.+3230% → 62%
  5. 5TBBuccaneers · Q4 0:09 · TB at HOUR.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3250% → 82%
  6. 6NEPatriots · Q4 7:18 · NE at MIAR.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3229% → 61%
  7. 7PHIEagles · Q4 13:07 · PHI at KCP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by A.Mukuba [J.Carter] at PHI 0. A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (J.Simmons).+2948% → 77%
  8. 8TBBuccaneers · Q4 0:06 · TB at HOUC.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to HOU 4. T.Smith to HOU 33 for 29 yards (J.Bullock).+2773% → 100%
  9. 9CINBengals · Q4 0:19 · JAX at CINJ.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.+2669% → 95%
  10. 10SEASeahawks · Q4 12:46 · SEA at PITJ.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-J.Pierre has returned to the game.+2458% → 82%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1LARams · Q1 8:48 · vs TEN · Puka NacuaP.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.2EPA
  2. 2SF49ers · Q4 12:26 · vs NO · Jauan JenningsM.Jones pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.7EPA
  3. 3NYGGiants · Q4 0:33 · vs DAL · Malik NabersR.Wilson pass deep right to M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.5EPA
  4. 4LACChargers · Q2 2:00 · vs LV · Quentin JohnstonJ.Herbert pass deep left to Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.4EPA
  5. 5NYGGiants · Q4 2:50 · vs DAL · Wan'Dale RobinsonR.Wilson pass deep right to W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.3EPA
  6. 6MIADolphins · Q3 14:07 · vs NE · Tyreek HillT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to T.Hill to NE 27 for 47 yards.+5.2EPA
  7. 7DETLions · Q3 6:28 · vs CHI · Jameson WilliamsJ.Goff pass deep left to J.Williams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
  8. 8KCChiefs · Q4 3:07 · vs PHI · Tyquan ThorntonP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  9. 9CINBengals · Q3 2:46 · vs JAX · Tee HigginsJ.Browning pass deep right to T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  10. 10NEPatriots · Q3 1:49 · vs MIA · Rhamondre StevensonD.Maye pass deep right to R.Stevenson to MIA 21 for 55 yards.+4.7EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1DETLionsvs CHI · W 52–21+0.41+0.35 vs usual
2NEPatriotsat MIA · W 33–27+0.34+0.26 vs usual
3LARamsat TEN · W 33–19+0.34+0.21 vs usual
4NYGGiantsat DAL · L 37–40+0.22+0.22 vs usual
5BUFBillsat NYJ · W 30–10+0.20+0.06 vs usual
6DENBroncosat IND · L 28–29+0.19+0.17 vs usual
7MIADolphinsvs NE · L 27–33+0.17+0.20 vs usual
8GBPackersvs WAS · W 27–18+0.16+0.04 vs usual
9INDColtsvs DEN · W 29–28+0.15+0.08 vs usual
10TBBuccaneersat HOU · W 20–19+0.14+0.15 vs usual
11DALCowboysvs NYG · W 40–37+0.13+0.04 vs usual
12ARICardinalsvs CAR · W 27–22+0.13+0.15 vs usual
13BALRavensvs CLE · W 41–17+0.13+0.10 vs usual
14JAXJaguarsat CIN · L 27–31+0.09+0.07 vs usual
15SEASeahawksat PIT · W 31–17+0.07+0.03 vs usual
16SF49ersat NO · W 26–21+0.05−0.01 vs usual
17PHIEaglesat KC · W 20–17−0.00−0.03 vs usual
18CINBengalsvs JAX · W 31–27−0.01+0.00 vs usual
19CARPanthersat ARI · L 22–27−0.02+0.02 vs usual
20LACChargersat LV · W 20–9−0.02+0.02 vs usual
21ATLFalconsat MIN · W 22–6−0.03−0.01 vs usual
22HOUTexansvs TB · L 19–20−0.07−0.04 vs usual
23NOSaintsvs SF · L 21–26−0.08+0.01 vs usual
24TENTitansvs LA · L 19–33−0.12+0.04 vs usual
25KCChiefsvs PHI · L 17–20−0.14−0.18 vs usual
26WASCommandersat GB · L 18–27−0.16−0.18 vs usual
27CHIBearsat DET · L 21–52−0.17−0.25 vs usual
28PITSteelersvs SEA · L 17–31−0.18−0.18 vs usual
29CLEBrownsat BAL · L 17–41−0.26−0.08 vs usual
30NYJJetsvs BUF · L 10–30−0.30−0.18 vs usual
31LVRaidersvs LAC · L 9–20−0.39−0.19 vs usual
32MINVikingsvs ATL · L 6–22−0.45−0.35 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 116Jared GoffDET vs CHI · 23/28, 334 yds, 5 TD+23.6
  2. 23Russell WilsonNYG vs DAL · 30/41, 450 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3-23 rush+17.4
  3. 310Drake MayeNE vs MIA · 19/23, 230 yds, 2 TD · 10-31 rush+17.0
  4. 417Daniel JonesIND vs DEN · 23/34, 316 yds, 1 TD · 6-2 rush+10.5
  5. 58Lamar JacksonBAL vs CLE · 19/29, 225 yds, 4 TD+10.2
  6. 61Tua TagovailoaMIA vs NE · 26/32, 315 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT+9.9
  7. 710Bo NixDEN vs IND · 22/30, 206 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3-20 rush+9.5
  8. 84Dak PrescottDAL vs NYG · 38/52, 361 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3-17 rush+8.8
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 19Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs PIT · 13 car, 105 yds, 1 TD · 1-13 rec+9.1
  2. 238Rhamondre StevensonNE vs MIA · 11 car, 54 yds · 5-88 rec+8.1
  3. 328Jonathan TaylorIND vs DEN · 25 car, 165 yds · 2-50 rec+8.0
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs NO · 13 car, 55 yds · 6-52 rec+6.8
  5. 533Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CIN · 8 car, 42 yds · 2-32 rec+6.0
  6. 630Jaylen WarrenPIT vs SEA · 14 car, 48 yds · 4-86 rec+5.0
  7. 722Blake CorumLA vs TEN · 5 car, 44 yds, 1 TD+5.0
  8. 84James CookBUF vs NYJ · 21 car, 132 yds, 2 TD · 1-3 rec+4.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 116Jared GoffDET vs CHI · QB34.0
  2. 23Russell WilsonNYG vs DAL · QB30.3
  3. 314Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs CHI · WR30.2
  4. 41Malik NabersNYG vs DAL · WR28.7
  5. 528Jonathan TaylorIND vs DEN · RB27.5
  6. 68Lamar JacksonBAL vs CLE · QB26.3
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs MIA · QB26.3
  8. 84James CookBUF vs NYJ · RB25.5
  9. 915Rome OdunzeCHI vs DET · WR24.8
  10. 1017Daniel JonesIND vs DEN · QB22.8
  11. 111Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs JAX · WR22.5
  12. 124Dak PrescottDAL vs NYG · QB22.1
  13. 1315Patrick MahomesKC vs PHI · QB22.1
  14. 1410Mac JonesSF vs NO · QB21.8
  15. 152Spencer RattlerNO vs SF · QB21.7
  16. 169Bryce YoungCAR vs ARI · QB21.3
  1. 114Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs CHI · WR34.7
  2. 216Jared GoffDET vs CHI · QB34.0
  3. 31Malik NabersNYG vs DAL · WR33.2
  4. 43Russell WilsonNYG vs DAL · QB30.3
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs JAX · WR29.5
  6. 628Jonathan TaylorIND vs DEN · RB28.5
  7. 715Rome OdunzeCHI vs DET · WR28.3
  8. 88Lamar JacksonBAL vs CLE · QB26.3
  9. 910Drake MayeNE vs MIA · QB26.3
  10. 104James CookBUF vs NYJ · RB26.0
  11. 1117Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DAL · WR24.2
  12. 1212Puka NacuaLA vs TEN · WR23.6
  13. 1317Daniel JonesIND vs DEN · QB22.8
  14. 1428De'Von AchaneMIA vs NE · RB22.2
  15. 154Dak PrescottDAL vs NYG · QB22.1
  16. 1615Patrick MahomesKC vs PHI · QB22.1
  1. 114Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs CHI · WR39.2
  2. 21Malik NabersNYG vs DAL · WR37.7
  3. 31Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs JAX · WR36.5
  4. 416Jared GoffDET vs CHI · QB34.0
  5. 515Rome OdunzeCHI vs DET · WR31.8
  6. 63Russell WilsonNYG vs DAL · QB30.3
  7. 728Jonathan TaylorIND vs DEN · RB29.5
  8. 817Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DAL · WR28.2
  9. 912Puka NacuaLA vs TEN · WR27.6
  10. 104James CookBUF vs NYJ · RB26.5
  11. 118Lamar JacksonBAL vs CLE · QB26.3
  12. 1210Drake MayeNE vs MIA · QB26.3
  13. 1328De'Von AchaneMIA vs NE · RB26.2
  14. 1433Javonte WilliamsDAL vs NYG · RB25.0
  15. 1585Tucker KraftGB vs WAS · TE24.4
  16. 1611Troy FranklinDEN vs IND · WR24.0
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 114Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs CHI · 9/11, 115 yds, 3 TD+12.8
  2. 215Rome OdunzeCHI vs DET · 7/11, 128 yds, 2 TD+12.2
  3. 31Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs JAX · 14/16, 165 yds, 1 TD+11.1
  4. 41Malik NabersNYG vs DAL · 9/13, 167 yds, 2 TD+10.7
  5. 517Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG vs DAL · 8/10, 142 yds, 1 TD+10.5
  6. 610Tyreek HillMIA vs NE · 6/7, 109 yds+8.2
  7. 79KaVontae TurpinDAL vs NYG · 4/4, 47 yds, 1 TD+7.4
  8. 81Jameson WilliamsDET vs CHI · 2/4, 108 yds, 1 TD+7.4
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185Tucker KraftGB vs WAS · 6/7, 124 yds, 1 TD+10.7
  2. 285Trey McBrideARI vs CAR · 6/7, 78 yds+5.3
  3. 386Zach ErtzWAS vs GB · 6/8, 64 yds, 1 TD+4.7
  4. 489Jeremy RuckertNYJ vs BUF · 1/1, 5 yds, 1 TD+4.3
  5. 50Ja'Tavion SandersCAR vs ARI · 7/9, 54 yds+3.2
  6. 689Brock WrightDET vs CHI · 3/3, 28 yds, 1 TD+3.0
  7. 785Cole KmetCHI vs DET · 2/2, 29 yds+2.7
  8. 884Elijah HigginsARI vs CAR · 2/3, 45 yds+2.7

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 2 · against his own season413 played

Week 2: 413 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

Nobody moved far on this board.

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

Nobody moved far on this board.

EPAthe week against his per-game average

Nobody moved far on this board.

New faces1Darnell MooneyATL · WR · debut, 86% of the snaps6Jake BrowningCIN · QB · debut, 70% of the snaps10Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB · debut, 27% of the snaps88Harrison BryantHOU · TE · debut, 39% of the snaps44Cam SkatteboNYG · RB · first start-level week, 52% of the snaps2Tyrod TaylorNYJ · QB · debut, 38% of the snaps83Kylen GransonPHI · TE · first start-level week, 57% of the snaps10Mac JonesSF · QB · debut, 100% of the snaps84Kendrick BourneSF · WR · debut, 49% of the snaps83Jaylin LaneWAS · WR · first start-level week, 52% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.