2025
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Bears offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 52–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 67%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:38, 8 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:38CHIC.Williams pass short left to R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 31%
- 2Q1 0:38CHID.Swift left end to DET 32 for 1 yard (B.Branch). FUMBLES (B.Branch), touched at DET 32, RECOVERED by DET-J.Campbell at DET 30. J.Campbell to DET…79% → 86%
- 3Q2 2:00CHIC.Williams pass short left to R.Odunze for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 17%
- 4Q2 13:19CHIC.Williams up the middle to CHI 37 for no gain (D.Barnes). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was…82% → 88%
- 5Q1 14:15DETJ.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta to CHI 17 for 9 yards (J.Johnson, T.Edwards).75% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Odunze led the Bears at +12.2 EPA (7 catches for 128). J.Goff led the Lions at +23.6 EPA (23 of 28 for 334).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams84% | 19/30 | 207 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1.0 |
| T.Bagent16% | 2/3 | 27 | +0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift57% | 12 | 44% | 63 | 1 | -3.6 |
| K.Monangai41% | 7 | 26% | 28 | -3.9 | |
| C.Williams84% | 5 | 19% | 27 | -3.6 | |
| T.Bagent16% | 2 | 7% | 7 | -0.4 | |
| O.Zaccheaus44% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze100% | 11 | 33% | 7 | 128 | 2 | +12.2 |
| D.Moore88% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 46 | +2.2 | |
| O.Zaccheaus44% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 12 | -6.8 | |
| D.Swift57% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 6 | -1.3 | |
| K.Monangai41% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| C.Kmet90% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 29 | +2.7 | |
| L.III18% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| C.Loveland53% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff95% | 23/28 | 334 | 5 | +24.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs56% | 12 | 40% | 94 | 1 | +2.2 |
| D.Montgomery39% | 11 | 37% | 57 | 1 | -1.2 |
| C.Reynolds5% | 3 | 10% | 4 | -2.4 | |
| A.Brown85% | 2 | 7% | 7 | +0.9 | |
| K.Raymond54% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.7 | |
| J.Goff95% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown85% | 11 | 39% | 9 | 115 | 3 | +12.8 |
| J.Williams88% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 108 | 1 | +7.4 |
| S.LaPorta85% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 26 | -0.2 | |
| B.Wright53% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 28 | 1 | +3.0 |
| J.Gibbs56% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 10 | -0.6 | |
| K.Raymond54% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 | |
| D.Montgomery39% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| I.TeSlaa29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 29 | +0.8 |
Defense K.Joseph 1 INT, A.Muhammad 1 sack, M.Davenport 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/2 FG (long 34)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 7.7 targets a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 7.3. Bears' tight ends produce 8.9 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bears succeed on 45% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Bears lead the series 28–26 since 1999. The Lions have won the last 4. Jan 4, 2026, at Soldier Field: the Lions won 19–16. Caleb Williams started at quarterback for the Bears and Jared Goff for the Lions; Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | DET 19 at CHI 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CHI 21 at DET 52 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DET 34 at CHI 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | CHI 20 at DET 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | DET 13 at CHI 28 |
2025 records
| Bears | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Division | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.