2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Lions offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 19–16; their low point was 35% at Q4 2:11. The Bears had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 1:55: T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23 K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (T.Homer) (49% → 60%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:02, 23 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:02DETJ.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD77% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:42DETJ.Goff pass short middle to A.St. Brown to CHI 26 for 26 yards (J.Jones).67% → 84%
- 3Q4 2:26DETJ.Goff pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on DET-J.Goff, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 25.36% → 52%
- 4Q4 2:23DETJ.Goff pass deep middle intended for A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by K.Byard (J.Brisker) at CHI 5. K.Byard to CHI 26 for 21 yards (C.Hubbard; I.TeSlaa).52% → 65%
- 5Q4 1:55CHIT.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23 K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (T.Homer).turning point49% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +12.3 EPA (27 of 42 for 331). L.III led the Bears at +3.7 EPA (3 catches for 35).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 27/42 | 331 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +12.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs71% | 19 | 70% | 80 | -0.4 | |
| D.Montgomery42% | 8 | 30% | 42 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown95% | 15 | 42% | 11 | 139 | +6.0 | |
| J.Williams95% | 8 | 22% | 6 | 74 | +5.6 | |
| J.Gibbs71% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 33 | 1 | +2.8 |
| K.Raymond19% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 52 | +3.7 | |
| A.Firkser70% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 2 | -1.6 | |
| D.Montgomery42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.8 | |
| I.TeSlaa60% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.1 |
Defense A.Maddox 1 INT, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 4/5 FG (long 42)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 20/33 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift58% | 10 | 56% | 40 | +1.0 | |
| K.Monangai42% | 6 | 33% | 14 | -1.0 | |
| C.Williams100% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| L.III62% | 1 | 6% | 10 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland91% | 13 | 45% | 10 | 91 | 1 | +2.5 |
| L.III62% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 35 | +2.8 | |
| D.Moore85% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 11 | -4.0 | |
| C.Kmet89% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +2.1 | |
| J.Walker36% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 36 | 1 | +2.6 |
| D.Swift58% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | -1.2 | |
| K.Monangai42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 15 | -0.1 |
Defense K.Byard 1 INT, A.Billings 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack, G.Jarrett 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Bears allow 4.7 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Lions send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bears give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (18th), against a league average of 7.3. Lions' tight ends produce 5.4 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 45% of plays (12th) against a defense that allows 46% (25th).
The Bears lead the series 28–26 since 1999. The Lions have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | DET 19 at CHI 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CHI 21 at DET 52 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DET 34 at CHI 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | CHI 20 at DET 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | DET 13 at CHI 28 |
2025 records
| Lions | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Division | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.