2025
Week 2 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Eagles offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Eagles, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 20–17; their low point was 46% at Q1 6:17. The game turned for good at Q4 13:07: P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by A.Mukuba [J.Carter] at PHI 0. A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (J.Simmons) (48% → 76%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:07KCP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by A.Mukuba [J.Carter] at PHI 0. A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (J.Simmons).turning point48% → 76%
- 2Q2 6:00KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to T.Kelce to PHI 24 for 18 yards (A.Mukuba) [Z.Baun].32% → 45%
- 3Q4 3:07KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3% → 16%
- 4Q3 13:00KCM.K.Hunt right guard to KC 35 for -1 yards (J.Carter, N.Smith). FUMBLES (N.Smith), and recovers at KC 35.57% → 70%
- 5Q4 14:18KCK.Hunt up the middle to PHI 10 for 3 yards (J.Carter; R.Blankenship). PHI-J.Davis was injured during the play.41% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Smith led the Eagles at +2.6 EPA (4 catches for 53). T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +3.1 EPA (2 catches for 59).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 15/22 | 101 | 2 | -4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley83% | 22 | 65% | 88 | 1 | +1.4 |
| J.Hurts100% | 9 | 26% | 15 | 1 | +1.0 |
| A.Dillon17% | 3 | 9% | 19 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown97% | 8 | 38% | 5 | 27 | -2.3 | |
| D.Smith75% | 6 | 29% | 4 | 53 | +2.6 | |
| S.Barkley83% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| G.Calcaterra88% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| K.Granson57% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.4 | |
| J.III12% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Dotson37% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense A.Mukuba 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, M.Ojomo 1 sack, Z.Smith 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Elliott 2/2 FG (long 58)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 16/29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco58% | 10 | 38% | 22 | -3.7 | |
| K.Hunt40% | 8 | 31% | 31 | -2.9 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 7 | 27% | 66 | 1 | +6.4 |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce77% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 61 | -0.3 | |
| M.Brown75% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 30 | 0.0 | |
| N.Gray65% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 1 | -4.0 | |
| T.Thornton75% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 59 | 1 | +3.1 |
| J.Smith-Schuster70% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.6 | |
| I.Pacheco58% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | |
| K.Hunt40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.3 | |
| N.Remigio3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +2.2 | |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense O.Norman-Lott 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/2 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Eagles score a touchdown on 67% of red zone trips (5th). Chiefs allow 55% (10th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Eagles send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Eagles' tight ends produce 6.2 (21st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Eagles average +0.02 EPA per play (15th). Chiefs allow -0.02 (12th). League average is +0.01.
The Eagles lead the series 6–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | PHI 20 at KC 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 22 · playoffs | KC 22 at PHI 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | PHI 21 at KC 17 |
| 2022 · Wk 22 · playoffs | KC 38 at PHI 35 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | KC 42 at PHI 30 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 6–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PHI off | Favors PHI · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#20 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#19 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#13 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#12 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#20 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#24 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#5 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 140#17 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 41#25 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#21 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#26 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Eagles: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.