2025
Week 2 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 20–17; their low point was 46% at Q1 6:17. The game turned for good at Q4 13:07: P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by A.Mukuba [J.Carter] at PHI 0. A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (J.Simmons) (48% → 76%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:07PHIP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by A.Mukuba [J.Carter] at PHI 0. A.Mukuba pushed ob at PHI 41 for 41 yards (J.Simmons).turning point48% → 76%
- 2Q2 6:00KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to T.Kelce to PHI 24 for 18 yards (A.Mukuba) [Z.Baun].32% → 45%
- 3Q4 3:07KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3% → 16%
- 4Q3 13:00PHIM.K.Hunt right guard to KC 35 for -1 yards (J.Carter, N.Smith). FUMBLES (N.Smith), and recovers at KC 35.57% → 70%
- 5Q4 14:18KCK.Hunt up the middle to PHI 10 for 3 yards (J.Carter; R.Blankenship). PHI-J.Davis was injured during the play.41% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Smith led the Eagles at +2.6 EPA (4 catches for 53). T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +3.1 EPA (2 catches for 59).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 15/22 | 101 | 2 | -4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley83% | 22 | 65% | 88 | 1 | +1.4 |
| J.Hurts100% | 9 | 26% | 15 | 1 | +1.0 |
| A.Dillon17% | 3 | 9% | 19 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown97% | 8 | 38% | 5 | 27 | -2.3 | |
| D.Smith75% | 6 | 29% | 4 | 53 | +2.6 | |
| S.Barkley83% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| G.Calcaterra88% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| K.Granson57% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.4 | |
| J.III12% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Dotson37% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense A.Mukuba 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, M.Ojomo 1 sack, Z.Smith 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Elliott 2/2 FG (long 58)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 16/29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco58% | 10 | 38% | 22 | -3.7 | |
| K.Hunt40% | 8 | 31% | 31 | -2.9 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 7 | 27% | 66 | 1 | +6.4 |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce77% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 61 | -0.3 | |
| M.Brown75% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 30 | 0.0 | |
| N.Gray65% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 1 | -4.0 | |
| T.Thornton75% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 59 | 1 | +3.1 |
| J.Smith-Schuster70% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.6 | |
| I.Pacheco58% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | |
| K.Hunt40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.3 | |
| N.Remigio3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +2.2 | |
| B.Smith8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense O.Norman-Lott 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/2 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Eagles give up 138 yards a game to wide receivers (17th), against a league average of 140. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 147 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Chiefs average 3.8 yards per carry (26th). Eagles allow 4.1 (12th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chiefs create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (18th). Eagles give them up at 9% (18th).
The Eagles lead the series 6–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | PHI 20 at KC 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 22 · playoffs | KC 22 at PHI 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | PHI 21 at KC 17 |
| 2022 · Wk 22 · playoffs | KC 38 at PHI 35 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | KC 42 at PHI 30 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 6–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.