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2025 season · Nov 13 to Nov 17 · 15 games · byes: IND, NO

Week 11 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

15 of 15 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Broncos beat the Chiefs 22–19 as a 35% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Panthers were down to 8% against the Falcons and won 30–27.
  • WildestBuccaneers at Bills: the lead changed hands 9 times; the Bills won 44–32, and the biggest swing was 22 points at Q2 0:45.
  • Best offenseThe Packers: +0.35 EPA a play against the Giants, +0.24 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Jaguars held the Chargers to −0.51 EPA a play, −0.44 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerJosh Allen (BUF QB): +16.6 EPA, 19/30, 317 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 6-40 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 11
Games final15 of 15
Overtime2
Comebacks3
Upsets4
Points659
Biggest swing35 pts
NYJJets14NEPatriots27
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q1 9:34
Led all the way
WASCommanders13MIADolphins16
Biggest swing 30 pts · Q4 0:15
Comeback from 21%Overtime
CARPanthers30ATLFalcons27
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q4 1:15
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 8%Overtime
TBBuccaneers32BUFBills44
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q2 0:45
LACChargers6JAXJaguars35
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q2 12:54
Upset · 39% at kickoff
CHIBears19MINVikings17
Biggest swing 35 pts · Q4 0:04
Upset · 40% at kickoff
GBPackers27NYGGiants20
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q4 5:56
Led all the way
CINBengals12PITSteelers34
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q3 0:51
Led all the way
HOUTexans16TENTitans13
Biggest swing 23 pts · Q4 0:50
SF49ers41ARICardinals22
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q1 15:00
Led all the way
SEASeahawks19LARams21
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q4 0:01
Led all the way
BALRavens23CLEBrowns16
Biggest swing 27 pts · Q4 2:39
KCChiefs19DENBroncos22
Biggest swing 24 pts · Q4 11:00
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 22%
DETLions9PHIEagles16
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q1 11:18
DALCowboys33LVRaiders16
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q1 9:20

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingsthe team with the ball, and the points of win probability for the team the play helped
  1. 1CHIBears · Q4 0:04 · CHI at MINC.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD+35CHI 65% → 100%
  2. 2LARams · Q4 0:01 · SEA at LAJ.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short+32LA 68% → 100%
  3. 3MIADolphins · Q4 0:15 · WAS at MIAM.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right+30MIA 32% → 62%
  4. 4WASCommanders · Q4 1:44 · WAS at MIAD.O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (E.Goldman, F.Luvu).+27WAS 16% → 43%
  5. 5MIADolphins · Q4 4:21 · WAS at MIAJ.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36 M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-E.Bonner at WAS 42.+27MIA 40% → 67%
  6. 6BALRavens · Q4 2:39 · BAL at CLEDirect snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+27BAL 64% → 91%
  7. 7CHIBears · Q4 0:50 · CHI at MINW.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (E.Wilson).+25CHI 38% → 63%
  8. 8KCChiefs · Q4 11:00 · KC at DENP.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to M.Brown [Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.+24KC 35% → 59%
  9. 9HOUTexans · Q4 0:50 · HOU at TEND.Mills pass deep right to N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (A.Hooker).+23HOU 58% → 81%
  10. 10BUFBills · Q2 0:45 · TB at BUFJ.Allen pass short left to Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+22BUF 55% → 77%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1BUFBills · Q2 0:45 · vs TB · Ty JohnsonJ.Allen pass short left to Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.7EPA
  2. 2BALRavens · Q4 2:39 · vs CLE · Mark AndrewsDirect snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.5EPA
  3. 3KCChiefs · Q3 3:11 · vs DEN · Tyquan ThorntonP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton to DEN 11 for 61 yards [J.Franklin-Myers].+5.3EPA
  4. 4BUFBills · Q2 9:01 · vs TB · Tyrell ShaversJ.Allen pass deep left to T.Shavers for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
  5. 5CARPanthers · Q1 9:23 · vs ATL · Xavier LegetteB.Young pass short middle to X.Legette to ATL 20 for 22 yards.+4.4EPA
  6. 6TBBuccaneers · Q2 5:46 · vs BUF · Sean TuckerS.Tucker right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA
  7. 7LARams · Q1 1:41 · vs SEA · Kyren WilliamsK.Williams left tackle to SEA 1 for 34 yards.+4.2EPA
  8. 8WASCommanders · Q4 10:49 · vs MIA · Marcus MariotaM.Mariota scrambles right tackle pushed ob at MIA 15 for 44 yards.+4.1EPA
  9. 9DALCowboys · Q2 1:20 · vs LV · George PickensD.Prescott pass short left to G.Pickens for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-G.Pickens, Unsportsmanlike Conduct,…+4.0EPA
  10. 10CARPanthers · Q5 8:06 · vs ATL · Tommy TrembleB.Young pass short right to T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards.+3.9EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1GBPackersat NYG · W 27–20+0.35+0.24 vs usual
2BUFBillsvs TB · W 44–32+0.24+0.11 vs usual
3PITSteelersvs CIN · W 34–12+0.20+0.22 vs usual
4SF49ersat ARI · W 41–22+0.19+0.14 vs usual
5NEPatriotsvs NYJ · W 27–14+0.17+0.08 vs usual
6NYGGiantsvs GB · L 20–27+0.15+0.15 vs usual
7DALCowboysat LV · W 33–16+0.13+0.04 vs usual
8CARPanthersat ATL · W 30–27+0.13+0.18 vs usual
9ATLFalconsvs CAR · L 27–30+0.13+0.16 vs usual
10JAXJaguarsvs LAC · W 35–6+0.08+0.05 vs usual
11WASCommandersat MIA · L 13–16+0.07+0.07 vs usual
12ARICardinalsvs SF · L 22–41+0.06+0.09 vs usual
13TBBuccaneersat BUF · L 32–44+0.05+0.07 vs usual
14KCChiefsat DEN · L 19–22+0.05+0.01 vs usual
15DENBroncosvs KC · W 22–19+0.03+0.00 vs usual
16MIADolphinsvs WAS · W 16–13−0.02−0.00 vs usual
17CHIBearsat MIN · W 19–17−0.05−0.13 vs usual
18HOUTexansat TEN · W 16–13−0.07−0.04 vs usual
19NYJJetsat NE · L 14–27−0.09+0.04 vs usual
20BALRavensat CLE · W 23–16−0.09−0.13 vs usual
21TENTitansvs HOU · L 13–16−0.12+0.04 vs usual
22LARamsvs SEA · W 21–19−0.17−0.33 vs usual
23MINVikingsvs CHI · L 17–19−0.19−0.08 vs usual
24SEASeahawksat LA · L 19–21−0.20−0.26 vs usual
25LVRaidersvs DAL · L 16–33−0.22−0.00 vs usual
26PHIEaglesvs DET · W 16–9−0.23−0.27 vs usual
27CINBengalsat PIT · L 12–34−0.24−0.24 vs usual
28DETLionsat PHI · L 9–16−0.40−0.51 vs usual
29CLEBrownsvs BAL · L 16–23−0.41−0.23 vs usual
30LACChargersat JAX · L 6–35−0.51−0.50 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs TB · 19/30, 317 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 6-40 rush+16.6
  2. 29Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · 31/45, 448 yds, 3 TD+14.2
  3. 39Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs CAR · 13/16, 175 yds+11.7
  4. 410Drake MayeNE vs NYJ · 25/34, 281 yds, 1 TD · 4-2 rush+11.6
  5. 52Mason RudolphPIT vs CIN · 12/16, 127 yds, 1 TD+10.7
  6. 610Jordan LoveGB vs NYG · 13/24, 174 yds, 2 TD+9.8
  7. 719Jameis WinstonNYG vs GB · 19/29, 201 yds, 1 INT · 3-10 rush+8.4
  8. 87Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · 47/57, 452 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT+8.3
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 114Kenneth GainwellPIT vs CIN · 9 car, 24 yds · 7-81 rec+9.5
  2. 223Christian McCaffreySF vs ARI · 13 car, 81 yds, 2 TD · 5-40 rec+7.9
  3. 344Sean TuckerTB vs BUF · 19 car, 106 yds, 2 TD · 2-34 rec+7.3
  4. 426Ty JohnsonBUF vs TB · 1 car, 9 yds · 2-61 rec+7.3
  5. 529Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG vs GB · 19 car, 88 yds · 4-51 rec+6.0
  6. 623Kyren WilliamsLA vs SEA · 12 car, 91 yds, 1 TD · 1-5 rec+3.6
  7. 740Hunter LuepkeDAL vs LV · 1 car, 5 yds · 3-36 rec+3.3
  8. 827Jordan MasonMIN vs CHI · 6 car, 45 yds, 1 TD+2.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs TB · QB42.7
  2. 244Sean TuckerTB vs BUF · RB32.0
  3. 39Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB31.8
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs ARI · RB30.1
  5. 532TreVeyon HendersonNE vs NYJ · RB27.3
  6. 67Bijan RobinsonATL vs CAR · RB26.3
  7. 74Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs ATL · WR25.0
  8. 84Dak PrescottDAL vs LV · QB24.3
  9. 914Kenneth GainwellPIT vs CIN · RB22.5
  10. 107Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB21.9
  11. 113George PickensDAL vs LV · WR20.4
  12. 121Travis EtienneJAX vs LAC · RB19.3
  13. 137Justin FieldsNYJ vs NE · QB19.3
  14. 1413Brock PurdySF vs ARI · QB19.3
  15. 1585George KittleSF vs ARI · TE18.7
  16. 1614Michael WilsonARI vs SF · WR18.5
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs TB · QB42.7
  2. 244Sean TuckerTB vs BUF · RB33.0
  3. 323Christian McCaffreySF vs ARI · RB32.6
  4. 49Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB31.8
  5. 532TreVeyon HendersonNE vs NYJ · RB29.8
  6. 64Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs ATL · WR29.0
  7. 77Bijan RobinsonATL vs CAR · RB28.3
  8. 814Michael WilsonARI vs SF · WR26.0
  9. 914Kenneth GainwellPIT vs CIN · RB26.0
  10. 103George PickensDAL vs LV · WR24.9
  11. 114Dak PrescottDAL vs LV · QB24.3
  12. 1285Trey McBrideARI vs SF · TE22.5
  13. 137Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB21.9
  14. 1485George KittleSF vs ARI · TE21.7
  15. 1512Nico CollinsHOU vs TEN · WR19.7
  16. 1687Travis KelceKC vs DEN · TE19.6
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs TB · QB42.7
  2. 223Christian McCaffreySF vs ARI · RB35.1
  3. 344Sean TuckerTB vs BUF · RB34.0
  4. 414Michael WilsonARI vs SF · WR33.5
  5. 54Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs ATL · WR33.0
  6. 632TreVeyon HendersonNE vs NYJ · RB32.3
  7. 79Bryce YoungCAR vs ATL · QB31.8
  8. 87Bijan RobinsonATL vs CAR · RB30.3
  9. 914Kenneth GainwellPIT vs CIN · RB29.5
  10. 103George PickensDAL vs LV · WR29.4
  11. 1185Trey McBrideARI vs SF · TE27.5
  12. 1285George KittleSF vs ARI · TE24.7
  13. 134Dak PrescottDAL vs LV · QB24.3
  14. 1412Nico CollinsHOU vs TEN · WR24.2
  15. 1587Travis KelceKC vs DEN · TE24.1
  16. 167Jacoby BrissettARI vs SF · QB21.9
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 13George PickensDAL vs LV · 9/11, 144 yds, 1 TD+12.2
  2. 24Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs ATL · 8/12, 130 yds, 2 TD+10.3
  3. 314Michael WilsonARI vs SF · 15/18, 185 yds+9.7
  4. 45Drake LondonATL vs CAR · 7/9, 119 yds+8.8
  5. 54Greg DortchARI vs SF · 6/6, 66 yds, 1 TD+7.9
  6. 612Nico CollinsHOU vs TEN · 9/10, 92 yds, 1 TD+7.8
  7. 789Isaiah HodginsNYG vs GB · 5/6, 57 yds+7.6
  8. 817Xavier LegetteCAR vs ATL · 4/8, 83 yds, 1 TD+7.0
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185George KittleSF vs ARI · 6/6, 67 yds, 2 TD+8.5
  2. 287Travis KelceKC vs DEN · 9/13, 91 yds, 1 TD+6.4
  3. 385Trey McBrideARI vs SF · 10/11, 115 yds, 1 TD+5.9
  4. 485Chig OkonkwoTEN vs HOU · 3/3, 56 yds+4.5
  5. 584Theo JohnsonNYG vs GB · 3/4, 36 yds+3.8
  6. 688AJ BarnerSEA vs LA · 10/11, 70 yds+3.7
  7. 780Darnell WashingtonPIT vs CIN · 4/5, 67 yds+3.6
  8. 882Tommy TrembleCAR vs ATL · 1/2, 54 yds+3.2

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 11 · against his own season388 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 11: John Metchie III (Jets) took 82% of the snaps, up 73 points on his season; Mac Jones (49ers) fell to 9% from 100.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+73 pts9% → 82%89Xavier WeaverARI · WR+64 pts8% → 72%18Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR+62 pts12% → 74%80Quintin MorrisJAX · TE+60 pts11% → 70%12Mason KinseyTEN · WR+50 pts6% → 56%
▼ Fallers
10Mac JonesSF · QB−91 pts100% → 9%0Calvin RidleyTEN · WR−64 pts66% → 2%17Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR−64 pts79% → 15%84Kendrick BourneSF · WR−48 pts72% → 24%8Josh JacobsGB · RB−46 pts68% → 22%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
14Michael WilsonARI · WR+20 pts12% → 32%15Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR+17 pts6% → 23%17Tim PatrickJAX · WR+16 pts2% → 18%11A.J. BrownPHI · WR+15 pts25% → 41%88AJ BarnerSEA · TE+15 pts11% → 26%
▼ Fallers
14Olamide ZaccheausCHI · WR−17 pts17% → 0%0Calvin RidleyTEN · WR−16 pts19% → 3%19Calvin Austin IIIPIT · WR−15 pts18% → 4%84Kendrick BourneSF · WR−13 pts13% → 0%10Khalil ShakirBUF · WR−12 pts22% → 10%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
9Bryce YoungCAR · QB+18.4 EPA-4.2 → +14.29Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB+11.4 EPA-0.7 → +10.714Kenneth GainwellPIT · RB+11.4 EPA-2.0 → +9.52Mason RudolphPIT · QB+10.8 EPA-0.1 → +10.74Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR+9.0 EPA+1.3 → +10.3
▼ Fallers
16Jared GoffDET · QB−22.9 EPA+8.7 → -14.314Sam DarnoldSEA · QB−21.8 EPA+8.6 → -13.18Lamar JacksonBAL · QB−18.3 EPA+5.5 → -12.810Justin HerbertLAC · QB−16.6 EPA+2.3 → -14.214Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR−15.6 EPA+4.9 → -10.7
New faces89Xavier WeaverARI · WR · first start-level week, 72% of the snaps13Gabe DavisBUF · WR · debut, 41% of the snaps12Shedeur SandersCLE · QB · debut, 51% of the snaps89Isaiah HodginsNYG · WR · debut, 79% of the snaps19Jameis WinstonNYG · QB · debut, 100% of the snaps3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR · first start-level week, 82% of the snaps12Mason KinseyTEN · WR · first start-level week, 56% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.