2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Bears offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 19–17; their low point was 32% at Q1 3:43. The Vikings had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:50: W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (E.Wilson) (38% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 35 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04CHIC.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD65% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:50CHIW.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (E.Wilson).turning point38% → 63%
- 3Q4 0:56MINJ.McCarthy pass short left to J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.43% → 61%
- 4Q2 3:45MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by K.Byard [G.Jarrett] at MIN 48. K.Byard ran ob at MIN 25 for 23 yards (D.Jackson).59% → 74%
- 5Q2 0:42MINJ.McCarthy pass deep left intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI -4. Touchback.59% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Loveland led the Bears at +3.0 EPA (3 catches for 40). J.Mason led the Vikings at +2.9 EPA (6 carries for 45).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 16/32 | 193 | 2 | -1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift57% | 21 | 54% | 90 | -1.2 | |
| K.Monangai37% | 12 | 31% | 23 | 1 | -0.4 |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 10% | 26 | -0.6 | |
| D.Moore81% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +1.0 | |
| T.Homer1% | 1 | 3% | -2 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze76% | 6 | 21% | 2 | 41 | +2.3 | |
| C.Kmet79% | 5 | 18% | 5 | 45 | +2.1 | |
| L.III44% | 5 | 18% | 3 | 27 | +0.2 | |
| C.Loveland75% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 40 | +3.0 | |
| D.Smythe21% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| D.Moore81% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 18 | -0.9 | |
| D.Swift57% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Monangai37% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | -0.1 |
Defense K.Byard 1 INT, N.Wright 1 INT · Kicking C.Santos 4/5 FG (long 54)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 16/32 | 150 | 1 | 2 | -13.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones67% | 16 | 73% | 70 | -0.2 | |
| J.Mason16% | 6 | 27% | 45 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 9 | 28% | 5 | 61 | -6.8 | |
| J.Addison96% | 7 | 22% | 2 | 20 | 1 | -2.8 |
| A.Jones67% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 11 | -4.6 | |
| T.Hockenson80% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 39 | 0.0 | |
| A.Thielen15% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| J.Oliver35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -3 | -1.3 | |
| J.Nailor60% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.2 |
Defense A.Ginkel 1 sack, D.Turner 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Bears' run game is 6th in EPA per carry (0.00). Vikings allow -0.08 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Vikings give up 19 yards a game to running backs (1st), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bears average +0.07 EPA per play (8th). Vikings allow -0.10 (3rd). League average is +0.01.
The Vikings lead the series 29–26 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at Soldier Field: the Vikings won 9–3. Caleb Williams started at quarterback for the Bears and Carson Wentz for the Vikings; Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at CHI 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CHI 19 at MIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIN 27 at CHI 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | CHI 12 at MIN 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 · OT | MIN 30 at CHI 27 |
2025 records
| Bears | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.