2025
Week 1 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Vikings offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 27–24 from as low as 7% (Q3 0:49, down 17–6). The game turned for good at Q4 9:57: J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to J.Nailor [M.Sweat]. PENALTY on CHI-T.Stevenson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 41… (41% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 13:03, 29 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 13:03CHIJ.McCarthy pass short left intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 26. N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 76%
- 2Q4 9:52MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right to A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-N.Wright has returned to the game.50% → 62%
- 3Q1 7:12CHIC.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 65%
- 4Q2 15:00MINJ.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to A.Jones. PENALTY on CHI-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play.38% → 48%
- 5Q4 9:57MINJ.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to J.Nailor [M.Sweat]. PENALTY on CHI-T.Stevenson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 41…turning point41% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Jones led the Vikings at +2.8 EPA (8 carries for 23). K.Monangai led the Bears at +1.1 EPA (0 carries for 0).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 13/20 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason54% | 15 | 58% | 68 | -1.1 | |
| A.Jones50% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -1.4 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 2 | 8% | 25 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Jefferson98% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson98% | 7 | 35% | 4 | 44 | 1 | -6.8 |
| T.Hockenson80% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 15 | -0.3 | |
| A.Jones50% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 44 | 1 | +4.2 |
| J.Nailor88% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 28 | -0.5 | |
| A.Thielen57% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Oliver48% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | -0.7 | |
| J.Mason54% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Hargrave 2 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 59)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 21/35 | 210 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift81% | 17 | 65% | 53 | -3.5 | |
| C.Williams100% | 6 | 23% | 58 | 1 | +6.6 |
| D.Moore84% | 3 | 12% | 8 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze94% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 37 | 1 | -0.9 |
| O.Zaccheaus45% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 42 | +0.4 | |
| D.Moore84% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| D.Swift81% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 12 | -1.0 | |
| C.Kmet90% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 31 | -0.9 | |
| C.Loveland57% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.6 | |
| K.Monangai13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.1 | |
| L.III27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -3 | -1.0 |
Defense N.Wright 1 INT, T.Kpassagnon 1 sack, D.Odeyingbo 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Bears allow 4.7 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Vikings' running backs produce 22 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Vikings gain 5.0 yards per play (28th). Bears give up 5.9 (27th), with the league at 5.4.
The Vikings lead the series 29–26 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at Soldier Field: the Vikings won 9–3. Caleb Williams started at quarterback for the Bears and Carson Wentz for the Vikings; Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at CHI 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CHI 19 at MIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIN 27 at CHI 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | CHI 12 at MIN 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 · OT | MIN 30 at CHI 27 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 5 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.