2025
Week 1 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 27–24 from as low as 7% (Q3 0:49, down 17–6). The game turned for good at Q4 9:57: J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to J.Nailor [M.Sweat]. PENALTY on CHI-T.Stevenson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 41… (41% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 13:03, 29 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 13:03MINJ.McCarthy pass short left intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 26. N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 76%
- 2Q4 9:52MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right to A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-N.Wright has returned to the game.50% → 62%
- 3Q1 7:12CHIC.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 65%
- 4Q2 15:00MINJ.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to A.Jones. PENALTY on CHI-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play.38% → 48%
- 5Q4 9:57MINJ.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to J.Nailor [M.Sweat]. PENALTY on CHI-T.Stevenson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 41…turning point41% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Jones led the Vikings at +2.8 EPA (8 carries for 23). K.Monangai led the Bears at +1.1 EPA (0 carries for 0).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 13/20 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason54% | 15 | 58% | 68 | -1.1 | |
| A.Jones50% | 8 | 31% | 23 | -1.4 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 2 | 8% | 25 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Jefferson98% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson98% | 7 | 35% | 4 | 44 | 1 | -6.8 |
| T.Hockenson80% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 15 | -0.3 | |
| A.Jones50% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 44 | 1 | +4.2 |
| J.Nailor88% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 28 | -0.5 | |
| A.Thielen57% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Oliver48% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | -0.7 | |
| J.Mason54% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Hargrave 2 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 59)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 21/35 | 210 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift81% | 17 | 65% | 53 | -3.5 | |
| C.Williams100% | 6 | 23% | 58 | 1 | +6.6 |
| D.Moore84% | 3 | 12% | 8 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze94% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 37 | 1 | -0.9 |
| O.Zaccheaus45% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 42 | +0.4 | |
| D.Moore84% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| D.Swift81% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 12 | -1.0 | |
| C.Kmet90% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 31 | -0.9 | |
| C.Loveland57% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.6 | |
| K.Monangai13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.1 | |
| L.III27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -3 | -1.0 |
Defense N.Wright 1 INT, T.Kpassagnon 1 sack, D.Odeyingbo 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Bears' run game is 6th in EPA per carry (0.00). Vikings allow -0.08 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Vikings give up 19 yards a game to running backs (1st), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bears average +0.07 EPA per play (8th). Vikings allow -0.10 (3rd). League average is +0.01.
The Vikings lead the series 29–26 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at Soldier Field: the Vikings won 9–3. Caleb Williams started at quarterback for the Bears and Carson Wentz for the Vikings; Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | MIN 9 at CHI 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CHI 19 at MIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIN 27 at CHI 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | CHI 12 at MIN 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 · OT | MIN 30 at CHI 27 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 5 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.