2025
Week 11 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 33–16; their low point was 46% at Q1 3:33. The game turned for good at Q1 2:55: G.Smith pass incomplete short right to T.Tucker (D.Bland) (48% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:20, 11 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:20LVD.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (M.Crosby). FUMBLES (M.Crosby) [M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.41% → 52%
- 2Q2 2:35DALG.Smith pass deep right intended for B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by M.Bell (K.Murray) at DAL 7. M.Bell pushed ob at DAL 31 for 24 yards (T.Tucker).83% → 92%
- 3Q2 14:55DALD.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.62% → 71%
- 4Q1 6:45DALD.Prescott pass short left to H.Luepke to LV 39 for 15 yards (J.Davis; K.Kelly).56% → 63%
- 5Q2 5:19DALD.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.80% → 86%
- ★Q1 2:55DALG.Smith pass incomplete short right to T.Tucker (D.Bland).turning point48% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +12.2 EPA (9 catches for 144). T.Lockett led the Raiders at +3.9 EPA (3 catches for 33).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 25/33 | 268 | 4 | 1 | +8.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams78% | 22 | 71% | 93 | -2.5 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 13% | -4 | -6.1 | |
| M.Davis19% | 4 | 13% | 20 | +1.2 | |
| H.Luepke24% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens67% | 11 | 34% | 9 | 144 | 1 | +12.2 |
| C.Lamb73% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 66 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Ferguson63% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 16 | 1 | +2.2 |
| H.Luepke24% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 36 | +2.5 | |
| K.Turpin34% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 0 | -2.0 | |
| J.Williams78% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Tolbert18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| R.Flournoy43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.1 |
| B.Spann-Ford36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 |
Defense Q.Williams 1.5 sacks, M.Bell 1 INT, O.Odighizuwa 1 sack, J.Houston 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 50)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 27/42 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty73% | 6 | 50% | 7 | -0.7 | |
| G.Smith100% | 4 | 33% | 14 | +2.9 | |
| R.Mostert25% | 2 | 17% | 6 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers97% | 12 | 31% | 7 | 72 | -5.5 | |
| T.Tucker97% | 8 | 21% | 4 | 47 | 1 | +0.1 |
| A.Jeanty73% | 8 | 21% | 6 | 27 | -2.5 | |
| M.Mayer77% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 13 | -1.3 | |
| T.Lockett47% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 33 | +3.9 | |
| R.Mostert25% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7 | -0.1 | |
| I.Thomas28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | +1.3 | |
| J.Bech15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.2 |
Defense M.Crosby 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 3/3 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Cowboys
Cowboys convert 43% of third downs (8th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Raiders give up 28 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Raiders give them up at 8% (7th).
The Cowboys lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 11 | DAL 33 at LV 16 |
| 2021 · Wk 12 | LV 36 at DAL 33 |
| 2017 · Wk 15 | DAL 20 at LV 17 |
| 2013 · Wk 13 | LV 24 at DAL 31 |
| 2009 · Wk 12 | LV 7 at DAL 24 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 2–7 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.