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2025 season · Nov 27 to Dec 1 · 16 games

Week 13 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Panthers beat the Rams 31–28 as a 21% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Panthers were down to 11% against the Rams and won 31–28.
  • WildestRams at Panthers: the lead changed hands 5 times; the Panthers won 31–28, and the biggest swing was 30 points at Q4 6:43.
  • Best offenseThe Packers: +0.29 EPA a play against the Lions, +0.18 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Seahawks held the Vikings to −0.70 EPA a play, −0.60 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerPatrick Mahomes (KC QB): +18.0 EPA, 23/34, 261 yds, 4 TD · 3-30 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 13
Games final16 of 16
Overtime1
Comebacks5
Upsets7
Points687
Biggest swing30 pts
GBPackers31DETLions24
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 14:25
Upset · 44% at kickoff
KCChiefs28DALCowboys31
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q4 14:56
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 17%
CINBengals32BALRavens14
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q4 13:04
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 16%
CHIBears24PHIEagles15
Biggest swing 23 pts · Q3 6:44
Upset · 23% at kickoffComeback from 22%
LARams28CARPanthers31
Biggest swing 30 pts · Q4 6:43
Upset · 21% at kickoffComeback from 11%
SF49ers26CLEBrowns8
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 10:40
Led all the way
HOUTexans20INDColts16
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q4 1:49
Upset · 40% at kickoff
NOSaints17MIADolphins21
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q4 0:35
Led all the way
ATLFalcons24NYJJets27
Biggest swing 29 pts · Q4 0:05
Upset · 39% at kickoffComeback from 14%
ARICardinals17TBBuccaneers20
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 3:47
JAXJaguars25TENTitans3
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q1 3:25
Led all the way
MINVikings0SEASeahawks26
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 3:14
Led all the way
LVRaiders14LACChargers31
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q3 14:13
Led all the way
BUFBills26PITSteelers7
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q3 14:54
DENBroncos27WASCommanders26
Biggest swing 21 pts · Q4 0:04
Overtime
NYGGiants15NEPatriots33
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q1 5:37
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingsthe team with the ball, and the points of win probability for the team the play helped
  1. 1CARPanthers · Q4 6:43 · LA at CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+30CAR 19% → 49%
  2. 2CARPanthers · Q4 2:34 · LA at CARM.Stafford sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (D.Brown). FUMBLES (D.Brown) [D.Brown], RECOVERED by CAR-D.Wonnum at CAR 30. D.Wonnum to CAR 49 for 19…+30CAR 42% → 72%
  3. 3NYJJets · Q4 0:05 · ATL at NYJN.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD+29NYJ 71% → 100%
  4. 4MIADolphins · Q4 0:35 · NO at MIAT.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (C.Robinson).+26MIA 72% → 98%
  5. 5BUFBills · Q3 14:54 · BUF at PITS.A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (J.Bosa). FUMBLES (J.Bosa) [J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-C.Benford at PIT 17. C.Benford for 17 yards,…+26BUF 44% → 70%
  6. 6NOSaints · Q4 1:17 · NO at MIAC.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was…+24NO 4% → 28%
  7. 7PHIEagles · Q3 6:44 · CHI at PHIC.Williams pass short left intended for K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by J.Hunt at CHI 47. J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (C.Williams).+23PHI 46% → 69%
  8. 8WASCommanders · Q4 0:04 · DEN at WASJ.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD+21WAS 29% → 50%
  9. 9CARPanthers · Q3 8:54 · LA at CARB.Young pass deep right to J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+21CAR 19% → 40%
  10. 10HOUTexans · Q4 1:49 · HOU at INDD.Jones pass incomplete short right to M.Pittman [W.Anderson].+20HOU 69% → 89%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1CARPanthers · Q4 6:43 · vs LA · Tetairoa McMillanB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.1EPA
  2. 2CARPanthers · Q3 8:54 · vs LA · Jalen CokerB.Young pass deep right to J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.4EPA
  3. 3LACChargers · Q3 14:13 · vs LV · Kimani VidalK.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
  4. 4GBPackers · Q3 10:38 · vs DET · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass deep right to C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
  5. 5NEPatriots · Q2 3:35 · vs NYG · Kyle WilliamsD.Maye pass deep left to K.Williams for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  6. 6WASCommanders · Q5 3:58 · vs DEN · Deebo Samuel Sr.M.Mariota pass deep right to D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards.+4.5EPA
  7. 7GBPackers · Q2 14:25 · vs DET · Dontayvion WicksJ.Love pass deep left to D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  8. 8CARPanthers · Q1 7:46 · vs LA · Chuba HubbardB.Young pass short right to C.Hubbard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
  9. 9CINBengals · Q3 0:20 · vs BAL · Andrei IosivasJ.Burrow pass deep middle to A.Iosivas for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA
  10. 10CLEBrowns · Q2 0:47 · vs SF · Harold Fannin Jr.S.Sanders pass deep left to H.Fannin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1GBPackersat DET · W 31–24+0.29+0.18 vs usual
2KCChiefsat DAL · L 28–31+0.25+0.23 vs usual
3CARPanthersvs LA · W 31–28+0.24+0.30 vs usual
4DALCowboysvs KC · W 31–28+0.23+0.14 vs usual
5DENBroncosat WAS · W 27–26+0.18+0.16 vs usual
6ATLFalconsat NYJ · L 24–27+0.17+0.21 vs usual
7NEPatriotsvs NYG · W 33–15+0.17+0.08 vs usual
8LARamsat CAR · L 28–31+0.14−0.00 vs usual
9LACChargersvs LV · W 31–14+0.14+0.18 vs usual
10BUFBillsat PIT · W 26–7+0.10−0.04 vs usual
11WASCommandersvs DEN · L 26–27+0.07+0.07 vs usual
12TBBuccaneersvs ARI · W 20–17+0.06+0.08 vs usual
13CHIBearsat PHI · W 24–15+0.04−0.03 vs usual
14DETLionsvs GB · L 24–31+0.04−0.05 vs usual
15JAXJaguarsat TEN · W 25–3+0.01−0.02 vs usual
16HOUTexansat IND · W 20–16+0.01+0.04 vs usual
17SF49ersat CLE · W 26–8+0.01−0.06 vs usual
18NYJJetsvs ATL · W 27–24+0.01+0.14 vs usual
19CINBengalsat BAL · W 32–14−0.00+0.01 vs usual
20ARICardinalsat TB · L 17–20−0.03−0.01 vs usual
21PHIEaglesvs CHI · L 15–24−0.04−0.06 vs usual
22NYGGiantsat NE · L 15–33−0.11−0.13 vs usual
23INDColtsvs HOU · L 16–20−0.12−0.20 vs usual
24MIADolphinsvs NO · W 21–17−0.14−0.13 vs usual
25NOSaintsat MIA · L 17–21−0.17−0.08 vs usual
26SEASeahawksvs MIN · W 26–0−0.18−0.24 vs usual
27CLEBrownsvs SF · L 8–26−0.20−0.01 vs usual
28LVRaidersat LAC · L 14–31−0.33−0.12 vs usual
29BALRavensvs CIN · L 14–32−0.34−0.40 vs usual
30TENTitansvs JAX · L 3–25−0.42−0.28 vs usual
31PITSteelersvs BUF · L 7–26−0.42−0.44 vs usual
32MINVikingsat SEA · L 0–26−0.70−0.62 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 115Patrick MahomesKC vs DAL · 23/34, 261 yds, 4 TD · 3-30 rush+18.0
  2. 29Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · 15/20, 206 yds, 3 TD · 5-23 rush+15.1
  3. 310Jordan LoveGB vs DET · 18/30, 234 yds, 4 TD · 5-4 rush+13.3
  4. 410Drake MayeNE vs NYG · 24/31, 282 yds, 2 TD · 6-12 rush+13.3
  5. 54Dak PrescottDAL vs KC · 27/39, 320 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3--2 rush+13.1
  6. 610Bo NixDEN vs WAS · 29/45, 321 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT+11.7
  7. 716Jared GoffDET vs GB · 20/26, 256 yds, 2 TD+10.8
  8. 817Josh AllenBUF vs PIT · 15/23, 123 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8-38 rush+10.6
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 130Chuba HubbardCAR vs LA · 17 car, 83 yds · 2-41 rec+7.9
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs NYJ · 23 car, 142 yds, 1 TD · 5-51 rec+7.1
  3. 322Blake CorumLA vs CAR · 7 car, 81 yds, 1 TD+6.3
  4. 426Devin SingletaryNYG vs NE · 12 car, 68 yds, 1 TD · 3-34 rec+6.2
  5. 54D'Andre SwiftCHI vs PHI · 18 car, 125 yds, 1 TD · 1-13 rec+5.4
  6. 622Derrick HenryBAL vs CIN · 10 car, 60 yds, 1 TD · 1-44 rec+5.0
  7. 723Kyren WilliamsLA vs CAR · 13 car, 72 yds, 1 TD+3.7
  8. 828De'Von AchaneMIA vs NO · 22 car, 134 yds, 1 TD+3.5
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 115Patrick MahomesKC vs DAL · QB29.4
  2. 210Jordan LoveGB vs DET · QB25.8
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs NYJ · RB25.3
  4. 411A.J. BrownPHI vs CHI · WR25.2
  5. 58Marcus MariotaWAS vs DEN · QB23.3
  6. 69Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB22.5
  7. 713Dontayvion WicksGB vs DET · WR22.0
  8. 816Trevor LawrenceJAX vs TEN · QB21.7
  9. 94Rashee RiceKC vs DAL · WR21.4
  10. 102Tyrod TaylorNYJ vs ATL · QB21.3
  11. 114Dak PrescottDAL vs KC · QB20.6
  12. 1216Jared GoffDET vs GB · QB20.6
  13. 1310Drake MayeNE vs NYG · QB20.5
  14. 141Jameson WilliamsDET vs GB · WR19.9
  15. 154D'Andre SwiftCHI vs PHI · RB19.8
  16. 1630Kimani VidalLAC vs LV · RB19.7
  1. 111A.J. BrownPHI vs CHI · WR30.2
  2. 215Patrick MahomesKC vs DAL · QB29.4
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs NYJ · RB27.8
  4. 410Jordan LoveGB vs DET · QB25.8
  5. 54Rashee RiceKC vs DAL · WR25.4
  6. 613Dontayvion WicksGB vs DET · WR25.0
  7. 71Jameson WilliamsDET vs GB · WR23.4
  8. 88Marcus MariotaWAS vs DEN · QB23.3
  9. 99Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB22.5
  10. 1016Trevor LawrenceJAX vs TEN · QB21.7
  11. 112Tyrod TaylorNYJ vs ATL · QB21.3
  12. 1288CeeDee LambDAL vs KC · WR20.7
  13. 134Dak PrescottDAL vs KC · QB20.6
  14. 1416Jared GoffDET vs GB · QB20.6
  15. 1510Drake MayeNE vs NYG · QB20.5
  16. 164D'Andre SwiftCHI vs PHI · RB20.3
  1. 111A.J. BrownPHI vs CHI · WR35.2
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs NYJ · RB30.3
  3. 315Patrick MahomesKC vs DAL · QB29.4
  4. 44Rashee RiceKC vs DAL · WR29.4
  5. 513Dontayvion WicksGB vs DET · WR28.0
  6. 61Jameson WilliamsDET vs GB · WR26.9
  7. 710Jordan LoveGB vs DET · QB25.8
  8. 888CeeDee LambDAL vs KC · WR24.2
  9. 915Adonai MitchellNYJ vs ATL · WR24.2
  10. 1014Devaughn VeleNO vs MIA · WR23.3
  11. 118Marcus MariotaWAS vs DEN · QB23.3
  12. 1217Terry McLaurinWAS vs DEN · WR22.6
  13. 139Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB22.5
  14. 1489Brock BowersLV vs LAC · TE22.3
  15. 1585Trey McBrideARI vs TB · TE22.2
  16. 1617Davante AdamsLA vs CAR · WR21.8
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 113Dontayvion WicksGB vs DET · 6/7, 94 yds, 2 TD+11.4
  2. 288CeeDee LambDAL vs KC · 7/9, 112 yds, 1 TD+8.8
  3. 33Jakobi MeyersJAX vs TEN · 6/6, 90 yds, 1 TD+8.2
  4. 418Jalen CokerCAR vs LA · 4/6, 74 yds, 1 TD+7.6
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs BAL · 7/14, 110 yds+7.3
  6. 61Jameson WilliamsDET vs GB · 7/10, 144 yds, 1 TD+7.1
  7. 717Davante AdamsLA vs CAR · 4/5, 58 yds, 2 TD+7.1
  8. 811A.J. BrownPHI vs CHI · 10/12, 132 yds, 2 TD+6.6
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 189Brock BowersLV vs LAC · 4/4, 63 yds, 2 TD+8.2
  2. 28Kyle PittsATL vs NYJ · 7/8, 82 yds+7.5
  3. 385Trey McBrideARI vs TB · 8/9, 82 yds, 1 TD+6.2
  4. 485Hunter HenryNE vs NYG · 4/6, 73 yds+5.6
  5. 587Travis KelceKC vs DAL · 5/6, 45 yds, 1 TD+5.5
  6. 682Adam TrautmanDEN vs WAS · 3/4, 47 yds+5.0
  7. 787Jake FergusonDAL vs KC · 5/6, 36 yds+4.6
  8. 888AJ BarnerSEA vs MIN · 4/5, 35 yds+4.5

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 13 · against his own season407 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 13: Max Brosmer (Vikings) took 100% of the snaps, up 89 points on his season; Mac Jones (49ers) fell to 6% from 90.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
12Max BrosmerMIN · QB+89 pts11% → 100%3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+73 pts24% → 97%15Mason TiptonNO · WR+69 pts16% → 85%18Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR+67 pts25% → 92%81Ross DwelleyDET · TE+65 pts10% → 75%
▼ Fallers
10Mac JonesSF · QB−84 pts90% → 6%14Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR−83 pts89% → 6%8Dillon GabrielCLE · QB−68 pts70% → 2%16Tyler JohnsonNYJ · WR−49 pts51% → 2%17Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR−43 pts63% → 20%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
15Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR+29 pts10% → 39%2Ashton JeantyLV · RB+24 pts13% → 36%1Jameson WilliamsDET · WR+21 pts16% → 37%3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+20 pts6% → 26%18Jalen CokerCAR · WR+18 pts12% → 30%
▼ Fallers
14Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR−29 pts32% → 4%11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR−22 pts39% → 17%4Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR−18 pts28% → 10%28De'Von AchaneMIA · RB−17 pts22% → 5%11Troy FranklinDEN · WR−16 pts22% → 7%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
9Bryce YoungCAR · QB+17.3 EPA-3.0 → +14.313Dontayvion WicksGB · WR+10.9 EPA+0.5 → +11.418Kirk CousinsATL · QB+9.9 EPA-4.0 → +5.94Dak PrescottDAL · QB+8.9 EPA+6.7 → +15.630Chuba HubbardCAR · RB+8.7 EPA-0.8 → +7.9
▼ Fallers
12Max BrosmerMIN · QB−27.9 EPA-1.3 → -29.114Sam DarnoldSEA · QB−15.2 EPA+6.7 → -8.58Lamar JacksonBAL · QB−14.3 EPA+2.5 → -11.84Zay FlowersBAL · WR−13.8 EPA+2.8 → -11.11Cam WardTEN · QB−12.7 EPA-7.7 → -20.4
New faces81Ross DwelleyDET · TE · first start-level week, 75% of the snaps85Tom KennedyDET · WR · debut, 65% of the snaps81Austin TrammellJAX · WR · first start-level week, 54% of the snaps12Max BrosmerMIN · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.