2025
Week 13 · Thursday 4:30 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 31–28 from as low as 17% (Q2 12:29, down 14–7). The Chiefs had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 13:21: D.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (T.McDuffie) (41% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 14:56, 18 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:56KCP.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.43% → 61%
- 2Q4 13:21DALD.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (T.McDuffie).turning point41% → 59%
- 3Q4 11:21DALD.Prescott pass short right to J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 69%
- 4Q2 3:17DALM.Davis up the middle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.31% → 44%
- 5Q4 3:30KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to M.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Ezeiruaku].17% → 29%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +18.0 EPA (23 of 34 for 261). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +13.1 EPA (27 of 39 for 320).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 23/34 | 261 | 4 | 3 | +14.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt64% | 14 | 61% | 58 | -3.1 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 3 | 13% | 30 | +3.8 | |
| I.Pacheco30% | 3 | 13% | 16 | +0.6 | |
| X.Worthy88% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +0.0 | |
| R.Rice89% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice89% | 12 | 38% | 8 | 92 | 2 | +3.6 |
| T.Kelce91% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 45 | 1 | +5.5 |
| X.Worthy88% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 61 | +3.0 | |
| K.Hunt64% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 22 | +2.0 | |
| M.Brown44% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +3.2 |
| I.Pacheco30% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | -0.3 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Wiley14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +2.6 |
Defense J.Watson 1 INT
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 27/39 | 320 | 2 | 1 | +15.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams78% | 17 | 65% | 59 | -5.5 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 3 | 12% | -2 | -2.5 | |
| M.Davis13% | 3 | 12% | 47 | 1 | +3.0 |
| K.Turpin36% | 3 | 12% | 33 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens74% | 13 | 35% | 6 | 88 | -2.4 | |
| C.Lamb81% | 9 | 24% | 7 | 112 | 1 | +8.9 |
| J.Ferguson71% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 36 | +4.6 | |
| J.Williams78% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 21 | 1 | +2.9 |
| R.Flournoy38% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 34 | +1.7 | |
| K.Turpin36% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 28 | +1.9 | |
| L.Schoonmaker32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Clowney 2 sacks, D.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/3 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Cowboys give up 171 yards a game to wide receivers (32nd), against a league average of 140. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 147 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Chiefs average 3.8 yards per carry (26th). Cowboys allow 4.7 (27th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Chiefs gain 5.2 yards per play (20th). Cowboys give up 6.3 (31st), with the league at 5.4.
The Cowboys lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | KC 28 at DAL 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | DAL 9 at KC 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 9 | KC 17 at DAL 28 |
| 2013 · Wk 2 | DAL 16 at KC 17 |
| 2009 · Wk 5 · OT | DAL 26 at KC 20 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.