2025
Week 13 · Thursday 4:30 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 31–28 from as low as 17% (Q2 12:29, down 14–7). The Chiefs had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 13:21: D.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (T.McDuffie) (41% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 14:56, 18 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:56KCP.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.43% → 61%
- 2Q4 13:21DALD.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (T.McDuffie).turning point41% → 59%
- 3Q4 11:21DALD.Prescott pass short right to J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 69%
- 4Q2 3:17DALM.Davis up the middle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.31% → 44%
- 5Q4 3:30KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to M.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Ezeiruaku].17% → 29%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +18.0 EPA (23 of 34 for 261). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +13.1 EPA (27 of 39 for 320).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 23/34 | 261 | 4 | 3 | +14.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt64% | 14 | 61% | 58 | -3.1 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 3 | 13% | 30 | +3.8 | |
| I.Pacheco30% | 3 | 13% | 16 | +0.6 | |
| X.Worthy88% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +0.0 | |
| R.Rice89% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice89% | 12 | 38% | 8 | 92 | 2 | +3.6 |
| T.Kelce91% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 45 | 1 | +5.5 |
| X.Worthy88% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 61 | +3.0 | |
| K.Hunt64% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 22 | +2.0 | |
| M.Brown44% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +3.2 |
| I.Pacheco30% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | -0.3 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Wiley14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +2.6 |
Defense J.Watson 1 INT
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 27/39 | 320 | 2 | 1 | +15.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams78% | 17 | 65% | 59 | -5.5 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 3 | 12% | -2 | -2.5 | |
| M.Davis13% | 3 | 12% | 47 | 1 | +3.0 |
| K.Turpin36% | 3 | 12% | 33 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens74% | 13 | 35% | 6 | 88 | -2.4 | |
| C.Lamb81% | 9 | 24% | 7 | 112 | 1 | +8.9 |
| J.Ferguson71% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 36 | +4.6 | |
| J.Williams78% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 21 | 1 | +2.9 |
| R.Flournoy38% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 34 | +1.7 | |
| K.Turpin36% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 28 | +1.9 | |
| L.Schoonmaker32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Clowney 2 sacks, D.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/3 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Cowboys
Cowboys convert 43% of third downs (8th). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Chiefs give up 29 yards a game to running backs (14th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Chiefs give them up at 9% (12th).
The Cowboys lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | KC 28 at DAL 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | DAL 9 at KC 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 9 | KC 17 at DAL 28 |
| 2013 · Wk 2 | DAL 16 at KC 17 |
| 2009 · Wk 5 · OT | DAL 26 at KC 20 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.