Down x Down

This week

Explore

DOWN X DOWN › matchups › Conference in review
Season over · final
2025
2026this season2025final
2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

2025 season · Jan 25 to Jan 25 · 2 games · byes: ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, SF, TB, TEN, WAS

Conference in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

2 of 2 final
The short version
  • Best offenseThe Rams: +0.32 EPA a play against the Seahawks, +0.18 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Patriots held the Broncos to −0.31 EPA a play, −0.23 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerMatthew Stafford (LA QB): +17.8 EPA, 22/35, 374 yds, 3 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Conference
Games final2 of 2
Overtime0
Comebacks0
Upsets0
Points0
Biggest swing–
NEPatriots10DENBroncos7
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
LARams27SEASeahawks31
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. No final games with win probability yet.
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1SEASeahawks · Q1 12:51 · vs LA · Rashid ShaheedS.Darnold pass deep right to R.Shaheed to LA 25 for 51 yards.+4.6EPA
  2. 2DENBroncos · Q1 11:49 · vs NE · Marvin Mims Jr.J.Stidham pass deep right to M.Mims to NE 7 for 52 yards.+4.5EPA
  3. 3SEASeahawks · Q2 0:25 · vs LA · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaS.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.Verse].+3.6EPA
  4. 4LARams · Q1 9:16 · vs SEA · Puka NacuaM.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua to SEA 26 for 44 yards.+3.5EPA
  5. 5LARams · Q3 2:13 · vs SEA · Puka NacuaM.Stafford pass deep left to P.Nacua for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion…+3.5EPA
  6. 6NEPatriots · Q3 10:22 · vs DEN · Drake MayeD.Maye scrambles up the middle ran ob at DEN 17 for 28 yards.+3.3EPA
  7. 7SEASeahawks · Q2 0:44 · vs LA · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaS.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba to LA 22 for 42 yards.+2.9EPA
  8. 8NEPatriots · Q2 8:36 · vs DEN · Mack HollinsD.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins to NE 31 for 20 yards.+2.8EPA
  9. 9LARams · Q3 10:31 · vs SEA · Davante AdamsM.Stafford pass deep right to D.Adams to SEA 2 for 29 yards.+2.8EPA
  10. 10LARams · Q2 2:00 · vs SEA · Kyren WilliamsM.Stafford pass short left to K.Williams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2.8EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1LARamsat SEA · L 27–31+0.32+0.18 vs usual
2SEASeahawksvs LA · W 31–27+0.20+0.16 vs usual
3NEPatriotsat DEN · W 10–7−0.14−0.24 vs usual
4DENBroncosvs NE · L 7–10−0.31−0.36 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 19Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · 22/35, 374 yds, 3 TD+17.8
  2. 214Sam DarnoldSEA vs LA · 25/36, 346 yds, 3 TD · 3-9 rush+17.1
  3. 310Drake MayeNE vs DEN · 10/21, 86 yds · 10-65 rush−3.2
  4. 48Jarrett StidhamDEN vs NE · 17/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4-23 rush−15.5
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 122Blake CorumLA vs SEA · 9 car, 55 yds · 3-24 rec+3.3
  2. 29Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · 19 car, 62 yds, 1 TD · 4-49 rec+2.5
  3. 323Kyren WilliamsLA vs SEA · 10 car, 39 yds · 2-22 rec+2.1
  4. 428Tyler BadieDEN vs NE · 1 car, 4 yds+0.6
  5. 546Adam PrenticeDEN vs NE · 1 car, 3 yds+0.1
  6. 620Ronnie RiversLA vs SEA · 0 car, 0 yds−0.6
  7. 736George HolaniSEA vs LA · 3 car, 4 yds · 3-27 rec−1.1
  8. 832TreVeyon HendersonNE vs DEN · 3 car, 5 yds−1.6
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 19Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB28.6*
  2. 214Sam DarnoldSEA vs LA · QB26.7*
  3. 312Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR22.9*
  4. 411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs LA · WR21.3*
  5. 59Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · RB17.1*
  6. 610Drake MayeNE vs DEN · QB15.9*
  7. 717Davante AdamsLA vs SEA · WR14.9*
  8. 823Kyren WilliamsLA vs SEA · RB12.1*
  9. 98Jarrett StidhamDEN vs NE · QB9.6*
  10. 1010Cooper KuppSEA vs LA · WR9.6*
  11. 1122Blake CorumLA vs SEA · RB7.9*
  12. 1214Courtland SuttonDEN vs NE · WR7.7*
  13. 1319Jake BoboSEA vs LA · WR7.7*
  14. 1438Rhamondre StevensonNE vs DEN · RB7.1*
  15. 1519Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs NE · WR6.2*
  16. 1684Colby ParkinsonLA vs SEA · TE6.2*
  1. 19Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB28.6*
  2. 212Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR27.4*
  3. 314Sam DarnoldSEA vs LA · QB26.7*
  4. 411Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs LA · WR26.3*
  5. 59Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · RB19.1*
  6. 617Davante AdamsLA vs SEA · WR16.9*
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs DEN · QB15.9*
  8. 823Kyren WilliamsLA vs SEA · RB13.1*
  9. 910Cooper KuppSEA vs LA · WR11.6*
  10. 108Jarrett StidhamDEN vs NE · QB9.6*
  11. 1122Blake CorumLA vs SEA · RB9.4*
  12. 1214Courtland SuttonDEN vs NE · WR9.2*
  13. 1319Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs NE · WR8.2*
  14. 1419Jake BoboSEA vs LA · WR8.2*
  15. 1512RJ HarveyDEN vs NE · RB7.9*
  16. 1684Colby ParkinsonLA vs SEA · TE7.7*
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR31.9*
  2. 211Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs LA · WR31.3*
  3. 39Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB28.6*
  4. 414Sam DarnoldSEA vs LA · QB26.7*
  5. 59Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · RB21.1*
  6. 617Davante AdamsLA vs SEA · WR18.9*
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs DEN · QB15.9*
  8. 823Kyren WilliamsLA vs SEA · RB14.1*
  9. 910Cooper KuppSEA vs LA · WR13.6*
  10. 1022Blake CorumLA vs SEA · RB10.9*
  11. 1114Courtland SuttonDEN vs NE · WR10.7*
  12. 1219Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs NE · WR10.2*
  13. 1312RJ HarveyDEN vs NE · RB9.9*
  14. 148Jarrett StidhamDEN vs NE · QB9.6*
  15. 1584Colby ParkinsonLA vs SEA · TE9.2*
  16. 1619Jake BoboSEA vs LA · WR8.7*
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 111Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs LA · 10/12, 153 yds, 1 TD+10.9
  2. 212Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · 9/14, 165 yds, 1 TD+8.5
  3. 317Davante AdamsLA vs SEA · 4/6, 89 yds, 1 TD+6.8
  4. 413Mack HollinsNE vs DEN · 2/2, 51 yds+5.3
  5. 510Cooper KuppSEA vs LA · 4/6, 36 yds, 1 TD+4.4
  6. 622Rashid ShaheedSEA vs LA · 1/3, 51 yds+2.2
  7. 719Marvin Mims Jr.DEN vs NE · 4/6, 62 yds+1.2
  8. 819Jake BoboSEA vs LA · 1/2, 17 yds, 1 TD+1.2
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 184Colby ParkinsonLA vs SEA · 3/4, 62 yds+3.4
  2. 289Tyler HigbeeLA vs SEA · 1/1, 12 yds+0.1
  3. 388AJ BarnerSEA vs LA · 2/3, 13 yds0.0
  4. 41Evan EngramDEN vs NE · 2/3, 19 yds−0.1
  5. 585Hunter HenryNE vs DEN · 2/3, 12 yds−0.2
  6. 618Terrance FergusonLA vs SEA · 0/1, 0 yds−2.8

Lines for 2 games are counted from the play-by-play because nflverse's weekly stats for them haven't posted yet. Their fantasy points (marked *) leave out fumbles and two-point tries until the stats arrive, usually by the next morning.

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 21 · against his own season0 played

Week 21: 0 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

Nobody moved far on this board.

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

Nobody moved far on this board.

EPAthe week against his per-game average

Nobody moved far on this board.

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.