2025
2025 season · Sep 4 to Sep 8 · 16 games
Week 1 in review
What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.
- UpsetThe Chargers beat the Chiefs 27–21 as a 39% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
- ComebackThe Bills were down to 1% against the Ravens and won 41–40.
- WildestSteelers at Jets: the lead changed hands 7 times; the Steelers won 34–32, and the biggest swing was 25 points at Q4 14:57.
- Best offenseThe Ravens: +0.39 EPA a play against the Bills, +0.37 against their usual.
- Best defenseThe Broncos held the Titans to −0.41 EPA a play, −0.35 against what they usually allow.
- PlayerLamar Jackson (BAL QB): +18.5 EPA, 14/19, 209 yds, 2 TD · 6-70 rush.
The gamesevery final with its win-probability line
Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.
The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball
- 1
49ers · Q4 0:42 · SF at SEAS.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (N.Bosa). FUMBLES (N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir,…+5147% → 98% - 2
Bills · Q4 0:03 · BAL at BUFM.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD+4951% → 100% - 3
Bengals · Q4 1:30 · CIN at CLEJ.Flacco pass short left intended for C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by D.Turner at CLE 47. D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (J.Ford).+4152% → 93% - 4
Rams · Q4 1:51 · HOU at LAC.Stroud pass short right to D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (N.Landman). FUMBLES (N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-B.Fiske at LA 24.+3164% → 95% - 5
Bears · Q3 13:03 · MIN at CHIJ.McCarthy pass short left intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 26. N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2947% → 76% - 6
Falcons · Q4 2:23 · TB at ATLM.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2835% → 63% - 7
Bills · Q4 0:53 · BAL at BUFJ.Allen pass deep left to J.Palmer ran ob at BAL 34 for 32 yards (K.Hamilton).+2621% → 47% - 8
Steelers · Q4 14:57 · PIT at NYJC.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-B.Skowronek at…+2541% → 66% - 9
Seahawks · Q4 1:13 · SF at SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SF 14 for 40 yards (R.Green).+2524% → 49% - 10
49ers · Q4 2:38 · SF at SEAB.Purdy pass deep left to R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (C.Bryant).+2434% → 58%
- 1
Chiefs · Q4 3:24 · vs LAC · Marquise BrownP.Mahomes pass deep middle to M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards [K.Mack].+5.6EPA - 2
Bills · Q4 14:06 · vs BAL · James CookJ.Allen pass short right to J.Cook to BAL 2 for 51 yards.+5.0EPA - 3
Cardinals · Q3 11:45 · vs NO · Trey BensonT.Benson right end to NO 30 for 52 yards.+4.4EPA - 4
Falcons · Q1 13:26 · vs TB · Bijan RobinsonM.Penix pass short right to B.Robinson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA - 5
Lions · Q4 1:00 · vs GB · Isaac TeSlaaJ.Goff pass incomplete short left to I.TeSlaa. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play…+4.3EPA - 6
Ravens · Q4 11:50 · vs BUF · Derrick HenryD.Henry left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA - 7
Falcons · Q4 2:23 · vs TB · Michael Penix Jr.M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA - 8
Dolphins · Q4 6:29 · vs IND · De'Von AchaneT.Tagovailoa pass short right to D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA - 9
Ravens · Q3 13:42 · vs BUF · Zay FlowersL.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to BUF 23 for 39 yards.+4.2EPA - 10
Raiders · Q1 12:23 · vs NE · Tre TuckerG.Smith pass deep right to T.Tucker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.1EPA
Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play
EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.
Playersthe best games by position, by EPA
- 1
Lamar JacksonBAL vs BUF · 14/19, 209 yds, 2 TD · 6-70 rush+18.5
- 2
Justin HerbertLAC vs KC · 25/34, 318 yds, 3 TD · 7-32 rush+17.4
- 3
Daniel JonesIND vs MIA · 22/29, 272 yds, 1 TD · 7-26 rush+16.8
- 4
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · 33/46, 394 yds, 2 TD · 14-30 rush+16.2
- 5
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs TB · 27/42, 298 yds, 1 TD · 6-21 rush+15.6
- 6
Geno SmithLV vs NE · 24/34, 362 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT+15.1
- 7
Brock PurdySF vs SEA · 26/35, 277 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT · 5-17 rush+14.4
- 8
Justin FieldsNYJ vs PIT · 16/22, 218 yds, 1 TD · 12-48 rush+13.7
- 1
De'Von AchaneMIA vs IND · 7 car, 55 yds · 3-20 rec+5.8
- 2
Derrick HenryBAL vs BUF · 18 car, 169 yds, 2 TD · 1-13 rec+4.4
- 3
Breece HallNYJ vs PIT · 19 car, 107 yds · 2-38 rec+3.5
- 4
Raheim SandersCLE vs CIN · 3 car, 3 yds, 1 TD+3.4
- 5
Dylan SampsonCLE vs CIN · 12 car, 29 yds · 8-64 rec+2.9
- 6
Jaylen WarrenPIT vs NYJ · 11 car, 37 yds · 2-22 rec+2.9
- 7
Kareem HuntKC vs LAC · 5 car, 16 yds · 2-10 rec+2.8
- 8
Aaron JonesMIN vs CHI · 8 car, 23 yds · 3-44 rec+2.8
- 1
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB38.8
- 2
Daniel JonesIND vs MIA · QB29.5
- 3
Justin FieldsNYJ vs PIT · QB29.5
- 4
Lamar JacksonBAL vs BUF · QB29.4
- 5
Derrick HenryBAL vs BUF · RB28.2
- 6
Justin HerbertLAC vs KC · QB27.9
- 7
Patrick MahomesKC vs LAC · QB26.0
- 8
Aaron RodgersPIT vs NYJ · QB25.7
- 9
Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB24.3
- 10
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs MIN · QB24.2
- 11
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs TB · QB24.0
- 12
Baker MayfieldTB vs ATL · QB22.6
- 13
J.J. McCarthyMIN vs CHI · QB22.2
- 14
Zay FlowersBAL vs BUF · WR21.1
- 15
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · QB20.1
- 16
Quentin JohnstonLAC vs KC · WR19.9
- 1
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB38.8
- 2
Daniel JonesIND vs MIA · QB29.5
- 3
Justin FieldsNYJ vs PIT · QB29.5
- 4
Lamar JacksonBAL vs BUF · QB29.4
- 5
Derrick HenryBAL vs BUF · RB28.7
- 6
Justin HerbertLAC vs KC · QB27.9
- 7
Patrick MahomesKC vs LAC · QB26.0
- 8
Aaron RodgersPIT vs NYJ · QB25.7
- 9
Zay FlowersBAL vs BUF · WR24.6
- 10
Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB24.3
- 11
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs MIN · QB24.2
- 12
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs TB · QB24.0
- 13
Baker MayfieldTB vs ATL · QB22.6
- 14
Quentin JohnstonLAC vs KC · WR22.4
- 15
J.J. McCarthyMIN vs CHI · QB22.2
- 16
Emeka EgbukaTB vs ATL · WR21.6
- 1
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB38.8
- 2
Daniel JonesIND vs MIA · QB29.5
- 3
Justin FieldsNYJ vs PIT · QB29.5
- 4
Lamar JacksonBAL vs BUF · QB29.4
- 5
Derrick HenryBAL vs BUF · RB29.2
- 6
Zay FlowersBAL vs BUF · WR28.1
- 7
Justin HerbertLAC vs KC · QB27.9
- 8
Patrick MahomesKC vs LAC · QB26.0
- 9
Aaron RodgersPIT vs NYJ · QB25.7
- 10
Keon ColemanBUF vs BAL · WR25.2
- 11
Quentin JohnstonLAC vs KC · WR24.9
- 12
Bijan RobinsonATL vs TB · RB24.4
- 13
Jalen HurtsPHI vs DAL · QB24.3
- 14
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs MIN · QB24.2
- 15
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs TB · QB24.0
- 16
Emeka EgbukaTB vs ATL · WR23.6
- 1
Zay FlowersBAL vs BUF · 7/9, 143 yds, 1 TD+9.8
- 2
Puka NacuaLA vs HOU · 10/11, 130 yds+9.5
- 3
Kayshon BoutteNE vs LV · 6/8, 103 yds+8.6
- 4
Keon ColemanBUF vs BAL · 8/11, 112 yds, 1 TD+8.0
- 5
Michael PittmanIND vs MIA · 6/8, 80 yds, 1 TD+6.9
- 6
Keenan AllenLAC vs KC · 7/10, 68 yds, 1 TD+6.3
- 7
Emeka EgbukaTB vs ATL · 4/6, 67 yds, 2 TD+6.0
- 8
Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI vs NO · 5/6, 71 yds, 1 TD+5.7
- 1
Brenton StrangeJAX vs CAR · 4/4, 59 yds+7.0
- 2
Michael MayerLV vs NE · 4/4, 38 yds+5.0
- 3
Trey McBrideARI vs NO · 6/9, 61 yds+4.4
- 4
Juwan JohnsonNO vs ARI · 8/11, 76 yds+4.3
- 5
George KittleSF vs SEA · 4/4, 25 yds, 1 TD+4.3
- 6
Jake TongesSF vs SEA · 3/3, 15 yds, 1 TD+3.4
- 7
Jeremy RuckertNYJ vs PIT · 2/2, 16 yds+3.1
- 8
Travis KelceKC vs LAC · 2/4, 47 yds, 1 TD+3.0
Moverswhose role broke from his own season
Week 1: 412 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.
Snap sharepoints of the snaps
Nobody moved far on this board.
Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded
Nobody moved far on this board.
EPAthe week against his per-game average
Nobody moved far on this board.
Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.